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27 years now, Museveni has manifestly demonstrated beyond doubt that he has no intention of relinguishing power peacefully. He has always relied on the military and the power of money to retain power. He has enjoyed the company of non militant political opposition players to legtimise his hold on power. Its groups like the recently concluded Uganda Conference in the Heague that Museveni enjoys. The actions of such groups fit into his popular proverb "Kahenddkye teita Mbogo" (mere wishing of a buffallo to break its leg does not guarantee its death). Its only Dr. Besigye who came on the scene as a threat to Museveni's hold on power. However, since Dr. Besigye has for a decade now not transformed the armed option into reality, he joins the likes of Semogerere, Bwanika, Mayanja, Mao, Agrey Awori, Otunu, Miria Obote etc. The only difference with Dr. Besigye is that he has done alot of moblisation of Ugandans and the international community by exposing Museveni's hidden agenda. Being a former NRA, Ugandans had anticipated him to break into Museveni's power base - the Military and disloge Museveni from power. He had stated that use of military force remained an option and this generated alot of hope for Ugandans who believe 99.9% (apart from Mao and Muntu) that Museveni can only be militarily dislodged. Dr. Besigye now remains a key opposition leader with majority following but who can not capture power because he has no army. With time most of his simpathisers are to revert back to the Museveni camp. With public resources at Museveni's disposal, fence sitters will be lured back and come 2016, he will win with 95%. 

Ugandans are so disgusted and desperate that they are ready to support any armed uprising that can dislodge Museveni. The level of despair is so great that even if it was Joseph Kony's LRA, they are willing to support it. Its in the midist of this uncertainity, that Gen David Tinyefuza came to the scene a few months ago. With his group, they have not wasted time but instead they have outrightly told the world that Museveni will not leave power peacefully. They are running short of making a declaration that the group will use force. Thats what Ugandans want to hear and the earlier they arm Ugandans the better because they are more than ready. 

Unlike Besigye and Muntu, Tinyefuza has the capacity to eat deeper into Museveni power base - the military leaving it crumbling. Once it crumbles, its only Tinyefuza who can reorganise it into a peoples' army by taming the politically ambitious Generals to avert the country degenerating into fragmentation. Most important is that a Tinyefuza led military assault will eat into his predominantly elite Hima NRA command structure. During his service, Tinyefuza demonstrated his capacity to reason beyond tribal/ethinic leanings. His only weakness is that when it comes to combat, he forgets that he is a General and fights fiercely like an ordinary soldier - the Fred Rwigyema way. With such a scenario, Museveni will be left with no option but to put Gen. Saleh in-charge of NRA. Again, Gen. Saleh is dissatisfied with the status quo but only holding on to Museveni for protection against the ICC for the Congo expedition. Although Museveni delibarately denied Tinyefuza the opportunity to advance his military knowledge, there is no match for him in the NRA. He is a genius as far as political and military campaign is concerned. Besides Saleh, Gen. Tumwine is as a civillian General as Gen. Otafiire. 

Armed with current intelligence and exploiting the situation on the ground that has been prepared by Besigye and group, once Tinyefuza and group rolls into action, the war theatre wont last long before Museveni is dislodged and Uganda regaining its lost glory. 


Viele GruBe

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