{UAH} Museveni driving a wedge between the Bakiga by playing one of its most prominent sons against another.
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Amama Mbabazi on the red carpert
Following Friday’s sacking of Amama Mbabazi as prime minister, the Kinkiizi West MP swiftly moved to shed the trappings of the office he has held for three years and four months.
On Friday, we understand, Mbabazi worked till 8:15pm at his Twin towers office near Parliament, cleared his desk and sent his personal belongings to a private office he owns at Plot 18, Akii Bua road, in Nakasero.
By Friday evening, Mbabazi had updated his internet and social media profiles, removing the title prime minister from both his Twitter account and Wikipedia page.
With the change taking “immediate effect”, Mbabazi is likely to have already lost his convoy with a police lead car and police guards. Without the clout offered by a top government position, and with President Museveni having deemed him a serious rival for the country’s top job, Mbabazi now faces the political fight of his life against the very system that he has spent all his life helping to build.
Former presidential candidate Beti Kamya believes Mbabazi is likely to be isolated by NRM in a manner akin to that of Dr Kizza Besigye when the three-time presidential candidate first declared his intentions to challenge Museveni, in 1999. That would suggest that one may not rule out seeing Mbabazi dragged to court for one offence or another.
“His world is definitely going to shrink,” Kamya said on a Saturday radio talk show. “He is going to be ostracised. I know what happened to Dr Besigye when he came out. People start avoiding you – the NRM and business community both – until they are sure of President Museveni’s side.”
With the odds stacked against Mbabazi and Museveni having – in Kamya’s words – “all the ammunition” to fight off the challenge, all eyes will now be on the Museveni revolution’s latest opponent from within.
Mbabazi unfazed, followers bouyed
Ever the master of keeping calm, the studious Mbabazi has not let anything slip so far on his next course of action. In the only statement that he has released so far, the 65-year-old veteran of the NRM/A struggle opted for modesty, thanking the president for the opportunity to serve, thanking those he has worked with in public service and promising to continue to offer his services to Uganda “in whatever capacity I can.”
Architects of Mbabazi’s clandestinely-hatched-but-now-openly-expressed bid for the presidency are, however, less diplomatic. The former Agriculture minister, Hope Mwesigye, a sister-in-law to Mbabazi, said Museveni sacked Mbabazi out of fear of competition.
“He drops whoever he suspects has presidential ambitions but I know that his time will also come,” said Mwesigye.
Although she decried the manner in which Mbabazi was sacked, describing it as “treacherous,” Mwesigye said Mbabazi was unfazed and would carry on with some mobilisation activities. Mwesigye said by appointing Dr Ruhakana Rugunda to replace Mbabazi as prime minister, Museveni was trying to drive a wedge between the Bakiga by playing one of its most prominent sons against another.
“I don’t think [that move] will give him returns,” said Mwesigye, also the NRM chairperson for Kabale district. “We [the Bakiga] are strong. The prime minister is strong.”
‘Blessing in disguise’
For Richard Kiryekyankuba, one of the architects of the recent move to distribute Mbabazi-emblazoned T-shirts in Wandegeya, Namboole and Old taxi park, the sacking is a blessing in disguise because it frees the former premier from Museveni’s crutches.
“Actually this is what we have always been praying for,” he told The Observer on Saturday. “We even wished for him to resign or to be fired because we always wanted him out so that he can use this fertile ground we have been preparing all along, but we couldn’t get him. He has always been busy doing government business but now he has time to meet people everywhere freely. He is a free man now. Actually, they have made us very strong.”
Although sacked as premier, Mbabazi remains secretary general for the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM). He could, therefore, dedicate his time to doing mobilisation for the party. However, the fear that Mbabazi could use that opportunity to popularise himself ahead of the NRM primaries for the 2016 general elections means he will remain a marked man.
Early this year, Museveni attempted to clip Mbabazi’s wings in the party by appointing Richard Todwong as minister without portfolio in charge of mobilisation and deploying him to perform some of the NRM secretary general’s duties. Todwong was tight-lipped when contacted, saying any changes would have to be decided on by the top NRM organ, which had not met on the matter.
The president has the prerogative to change anybody he wishes at whatever time; so, he has not communicated anything much about the changes,” Todwong told The Observer
‘Mbabazi should tread carefully’
For all his reputation as a brilliant behind-the-scenes political schemer, Mbabazi was long considered by many Ugandans as proud and aloof. However, his perceived interest in the top job had begun to transform him into a popular figure, with his presence at Namboole stadium in particular eliciting positive ratings. Besides, those close to him say Mbabazi has grown increasingly friendlier and more outgoing over the recent years.
This transformation would not have gone unnoticed by the president and his supporters, especially after Mbabazi’s ambition became apparent. Nevertheless, Mbabazi’s name having been mentioned in some corruption cases, and his being the brains behind NRM’s repressive policies towards opposition politics will not be forgiven by some.
The latter include FDC Secretary General Alice Alaso, who says Mbabazi has been the co-architect of a political system that suffocated opposition to Museveni and is unlikely to win much sympathy – or even survive-outside that system.
“Hon Amama was a key architect of building a system that does not allow us freedoms of expression; the Public Order Management Bill, he built it...,” Alaso said on a Saturday radio show. “So, outside the framework that he constructed, he cannot even hold a rally; so, he cannot advance his own political career.”
However, since the NRM started throwing Mbabazi under its yellow bus with the Kyankwanzi resolution, opposition politicians have sent an olive branch to the Kinkiizi West MP. Budadiri West MP Nathan Nandala Mafabi, also a former leader of opposition, says it would be counterproductive to vilify Mbabazi since he could be an asset in their quest to wrestle power from Museveni.
“The time for who is a saint and who is a villain is not now,” said Mafabi on his social media page. “I suggest that we open our doors to welcome Amama to help to push the wheel of change. What is pretty clear to us now is that Museveni cannot tolerate competition that is free and fair with anyone. Now that he has recruited another foe for himself, it is our duty to welcome and support Amama Mbabazi. He is important to the cause.”
If Mbabazi joins the opposition, it could trigger an alliance similar to the Rainbow Coalition in Kenya that scuttled efforts by then president, Daniel arap Moi, to have his favoured candidate, Uhuru Kenyatta, succeed him.
Whatever decision Mbabazi makes, Museveni has drawn a line in the sand and the two erstwhile political twins could face off ahead of 2016 with their respective political lives at stake.
hobenon@observer.ug
Additional reporting by Edris Kiggundu.
Comments
Personally I can see a win if the opposition came together with willingness to let the most liked candinate by the people of Uganda to become the president.
All parties to sit down and come-up with one manifesto that differs from what presently people are crying to be holding back their happiness, for instance their vision be equal fair community development, rural industrializati on, generate employment, minimum wage, cheap better medical care, accessible loans for starters as capital, tribal fair equal employment opportunity enforcement on organisation, serious fight of crime and corruption.
How do you look at things
we go we go till 2021...
Whatever Museveni's strengths, Mbabazi is the organised/orderly part of NRM. Sans Mbabazi, what do you have? You have the Todwongs and the Tumwebazes with their rash actions and bags of cash.
(Sure you have the Ruhakanas and the Kadagas, but those stopped 'believing' a long time ago, they'll never put in the committed effort.) So Museveni I think will pay a huge price, as chaos increases in the party and country. He will miss Mbabazi more than Mbabazi misses him.
