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{UAH} Conservatives to fall 18 seats short of majority, latest YouGov poll model suggests

Moses Nekyon/Farnk Mujabi,,

If the pollsters are right, then we are getting closer to the promised land. But YouGov got it horribly wrong the last time- and may be they are wrong this time. But one fact that no one can run away from is the magnificient fight Jeremy Corbyn has put. He abandoned all conventional wisdom and decided on a campaign based on ideological conviction- also his strategy of taking the battle directly to the people have had a huge impact in changing peoples minds. He is atracting crowds that no other British politician has ever attracted. He is now addressing three rallies a day, across the country- each one attended by a minimum 20,000 people, at some venues as high as 100,000. These are attendance  figures the conservatives can only dream about. And if they win it, the conservatives must know they will have a very divided country, because how can they rule the country without London, which they are expected to loose heavily? This is the type of campaign we wanted Mr Sanders to run in the USA elections- if the Democrats had done the only sensible option open to them at the time, which was to nominate him as their candidate rather than  a damaged Hilary Clinton.

If I ever stand for elective office in Uganda, this strategy of Jeremy Corbyn is what I would use: Go directly to the people and use charisma and personal touch to win people over. Theresa May's personal touch and charisma is like that of a morque or mortuary attendant, so you can see how she is avoiding any public contact, preferring to meet only with selected or carefully picked audiences in stage-managed media events. May be she expected a walk-over. Now she is realising she has a real fight in her hands. Whatever happens to Labour, win or loose, we are now in a very strong postion to rebuild the party after three disatrous years. We have rectified errors and put the party on a strong foundation. That can only be good, because by the look of things, the Labour Party will be left as the only socialist party left standing in Europe if the current right-wing and anti-establishment swing continues.


Conservatives to fall 18 seats short of majority, latest YouGov poll model suggests

Poll gives Tories 42% of vote putting Labour only four points behind with 38%

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Indy Politics

The Conservatives are on track to fall 18 seats short of a majority in the general election, a new opinion poll model has suggested.

The latest YouGov prediction model shows the Tories winning 308 seats, Labour on 261 and other parties winning 80 seats in the 650-seat lower house of parliament.

It marks a shift of nine seats from the Conservatives to Labour since a previous YouGov prediction poll two days ago, which showed Theresa May's party on 317 and Labour on 253.

The latest YouGov prediction comes as a separate poll by Britain Elects shows the Conservatives with a 43 per cent vote share and Labour holding 37 per cent of the votes.

Other opinion polls during the past 10 days have shown the Conservatives' lead over Labour in terms of public support fall away, though the extent of the decline is sensitive to assumptions over how likely different age groups are to vote.

General Election polls and projections: June 3

At the start of the campaign some polls had the Tories at almost double the vote share of the Labour Party, indicating a likely landslide victory that would increase the Prime Minister's current working majority of 17 in the House of Commons.

But the Tory lead, which was 24 points over Labour when the snap general election was called in April, has been steadily declining in the polls as election day edges closer, which will be a concern to party headquarters and a boost to their rivals.

Ms May's personal opinion poll ratings have fallen to their lowest yet in recent days following a series of blows to the Tory campaign, including an embarrassing U-turn over the party's proposals to reform social care and criticism after she declined to take part in televised debates.

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