[UAH] Can the Arab Revolution impact Uganda politics?

Some Ugandans in comfort and outside commentators who want to maintain the political status quo in Uganda and keep Museveni in power who is a reliable ally of some western countries have argued that a political revolution in Uganda is not possible because Ugandans are basically docile. But this is what had been said of Egyptians before the revolution occurred!

Similarly, before the Kenyan ethnic outburst occurred in the Rift Valley province following the 2007 election, Kenya was considered the most stable country in eastern and central Africa.

Before the Social Revolution occurred in Rwanda in 1959, the world thought that Tutsi would stay in power indefinitely after gaining independence based on South Africa model of minority rule.

Many commentators on South African politics had convinced themselves that there was no way political change would occur while still alive. Many who said so are still alive today in July 2013.  

Before the People's Revolution in the Philippines occurred in 1986, Ferdinand Marcos was expected to stay in power much longer. It turned out 1986 was his last in power.

These examples demonstrate that the unexpected can happen with or without influence from the outside.

Let us consider those changes of regimes that were influenced by outside forces.

1.     The American Revolution was influenced by speeches and writings of Enlightenment school in Europe especially the work of John Locke, Montesquieu, Thomas Paine and Voltaire. The Haitian and Latin American wars of independence borrowed from Enlightenment School and American Revolution.

2.     The French Revolution was greatly impacted by lessons from the American Revolution. Lafayette who had participated in the American War of Independence played a vital role in the French Revolution.

3.     The Russian army officers who had participated in the occupation of France from 1815 to 1818 returned home with the knowledge of the rights of man and the responsibilities of rulers resulting from the French Revolution. During a struggle for power between two brothers after the death of childless Tsar Alexander, the Decembrists issued a manifesto on December 14, 1825 declaring the end of the old regime and organized protests to that end. The manifesto contained a list of abuses in Russia and the revolutionary ideas imported into it. The manifesto included inter alia (a) abolition of the government; (b) establishment of a provisional government; (c) freedom of the press; (d) abolition of the right to own men; (e) equality of all classes; (f) the right of every citizen to own property such as land and (g) introduction of a jury in criminal and civil courts.

The provisional government would:

1.     Equalize all classes;

2.     Form administrations at local, regional and central levels;

3.     Equalize recruiting obligations among all classes;

4.     Establish a system for electing representatives.

This is more or less what UDU has recommended for Uganda after the ouster of NRM that has failed Ugandans and supporters abroad.     

Ugandans especially the youth are watching developments in the Arab World and are noticing the following similarities between Museveni and the former presidents of Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen.

1.     Like Museveni they had been in power for a long time;

2.     Like Museveni, they had strong backing of western powers;

3.     Like Museveni, they relied on the military and suppression of dissent;

4.     Like Museveni, they presided over economies and societies that were corrupt, sectarian and unequal;

5.     Like Museveni they experienced a surge in unemployed and hungry youth especially those residing in urban slums.

6.     The former leaders of Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen faced increasing opposition at home and abroad that brought all opposition groups together which ultimately could not be contained by the security forces. Similarly, Museveni is increasingly facing the same situation at home and abroad. The development partners are finding it difficult to continue to support Museveni and his rampant corrupt and sectarian regime in the face of overwhelming evidence of decadence. Twice in a row Uganda has been declared a failed state in 2012 and 2013 and the situation is getting worse as thankfully donors cut back on their financial and technical support. We urge those that haven't done so to follow suit. This will help to unseat NRM government faster and end the suffering of the majority of Ugandans. Sanctions against South Africa accelerated the collapse of the apartheid regime.   

Now that the momentum for change has been built what is needed is a spark which none can predict when it will occur. Nobody predicted that Amin's invasion of Tanzania could trigger his ouster. There is no doubt that the trigger will eventually occur in Uganda.

To avoid surprises like the Moshi conference of 1979, all Ugandans should begin to prepare for a smooth takeover in a transitional government of all interested stakeholders including good elements in NRM. We should avoid a winner-take all arrangement because in the end it is counter-productive.

We should begin to shop around for a group of capable leaders at home and abroad based on agreed upon profiles that must include family tree; sufficient education and experience; patriotism and impeccable record with no blood on their hands and/or confiscated properties such as land from Ugandans and clear ideas of what they want to do once in power.

We should avoid at all cost random selection of leaders as happened in Moshi. These were people who disliked one another and the struggle for power started soon after arrival in Kampala and Lule and his government was out within 68 days and his successor Binaisa lasted less than a year opening the door for Obote's return that triggered an unfortunate and destructive guerrilla war and the crowning of Museveni by default whose profile was not known except that he carried a gun, hired Tutsi mercenaries and vowed to use it to oust Obote and install a DP president which hasn't happened after 28 years and still counting.  

UDU has already taken steps to prepare for a smooth transition. We have a National Recovery Plan. We have a secretariat that is following and reporting on developments through the office of the Secretary General. Kindly visit our website at www.udugandans.org to see how much UDU has accomplished including establishment of excellent diplomatic networks and placing Uganda within the Great Lakes region and East African community framework.

We should not reinvent the wheel but adopt the National Recovery Plan with amendments as necessary. The UDU secretariat should be expanded instead of starting afresh. The youth and gender have been positioned to play a vital role in the transitional government and beyond. As reported earlier, UDU has begun compiling a list of qualified Ugandans from the lowest to the highest levels of government.

What is remaining is a spark to start a spontaneous revolution along the Arab Spring lines of largely peaceful change of regime which could happen anytime from now. Meanwhile, UDU calls on all Ugandans wherever we are to conduct peaceful non-resistance protests including through the media and non-cooperation activities with NRM government.

We call on all security forces to join hands with civilian population and bring about a bloodless and democratic change of NRM government.

United and with a clear message and patriotic commitment we shall succeed.

Eric Kashambuzi

Secretary General, UDU