[UAH] Could oil lead to more democracy? Dream on - Comment - www.theeastafrican.co.ke

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/OpEd/comment/Could-oil-lead-to-more-democracy-Dream-on-/-/434750/1906622/-/k05u37z/-/index.html

On Wednesday evening, the Egyptian military stepped back into politics again, and ousted President Mohammed Morsy.

It then tapped the chief judge of Egypt's Constitutional Court, Adli Mansour, as interim leader. Morsy became Egypt's first democratically elected leader a year ago. 
The move by the army came after days of mass rallies against the president and his Muslim Brotherhood party.

This was as much about Egypt, as the rest of Africa because it raised an old-age question: "Will the militaries in Africa ever really stay out of politics?"

To answer that, we have to look at how Africa moved from the mid-1980s where over 80 per cent of the countries were ruled by military dictators, to the situation today where nearly all them, except a few holdouts like Eritrea, have leaders who have gone through an election of some sort.

The collapse of the commodity markets of the 1970s and 80s, and the high oil prices of that period, left many African countries bankrupt. Without the resources to keep soldiers well fed, and to bribe critical civilian constituents, the continent witnessed endless coups and counter-coups.

But for the African militaries, the bigger crisis was that they became vulnerable to attacks and eventual defeat by rebel groups. In the wider East African region we saw successful rebellions in Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, DR Congo, and a sharp improvement in the fortunes of the Sudan People's Liberation Army in South Sudan.

Something unusual happened as a result of these successful rebellions. Their leaders, who constituted the new military-political establishment, adopted many strategies to ensure they did not themselves meet the same fate.

One was to retreat to the barracks, but get pro-military parties and leaders, some of them former generals, elected. Thus, in Nigeria, Olusegun Obasanjo came up.

The second was to civilianise; and so they got soldiers like Ghana's Jerry Rawlings, or victorious guerrilla leaders like Uganda's Yoweri Museveni to don civilian tunics and run in elections that only they could win.

Lately, three new strategies have been developed: One, the army stages a coup, and forms a civilian-military joint venture, with a powerless civilian at the top. We saw this in Guinea, and then Mali after Captain Amadou Sanogo staged a coup last year.

North Africa offered us the other two models: In 2011 when Tunisia's Ben Ali and then Egypt's Hosni Mubarak were run out of town in the Arab Spring, the militaries of both countries played neutral referee. This time, the Egyptian army has returned as partisan arbiter, siding with the anti-Morsy forces, but still putting a civilian face in the front office.

So, it is mostly the shortage of national resources, not democratic evolution, that has kept the armies in the barracks.

They needed donor money, and FDI, to shore up their economies and run their countries. That is why in North Africa, where the countries had oil money and could pay their way, democracy was absent until two years ago.

Which makes one wonder, what will happen now that African countries are on the rebound as they discover vast reserves of oil, natural gas, and other minerals and can again earn enough money to fill their treasuries and pockets without having to beg or steal from donors?

I wouldn't be surprised if a richer Africa is less democratic.

In Summary

• I wouldn't be surprised if a richer Africa is less democratic.
• It is mostly the shortage of national resources, not democratic evolution, that keeps the armies in the barracks.
• They need donor money, and FDI, to shore up their economies and run their countries. That is why in North Africa, where the countries had oil money and could pay their way, democracy was absent until two years ago.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is Nation Media Group's executive editor for Africa & Digital Media. E-mail: cobbo@ke.nationmedia.com. Twitter: @cobbo3