{UAH} Museveni is testing Baganda on the eve of Ttabamiruka conference

The timing of the signing of an Agreement between Buganda and the central government on August 1, 2013 regarding the transfer of Buganda properties wasn't an accident. It wasn't an honest deal either given the secret nature of the negotiations and the reporting of the conclusions (initially reported as a Memorandum of Understanding when it was an Agreement and signed by President Museveni alone when it was signed by the Kabaka as well).

It was a calculated move by President Museveni to test the resolve of Baganda at the Ttabamiruka conference at the end of this month (August 2013) to discuss Buganda foreign occupation.

Museveni signed the Agreement abruptly to prevent the Ttabamiruka conference from discussing foreign (read Tutsi) occupation of Buganda since the 1959 Social Revolution in Rwanda that saw thousands of Tutsi leave Rwanda with their cattle and many of them settling in Buganda temporarily.

Museveni has used selfish Baganda especially in the cabinet and in parliament to weaken Buganda. By signing a secret Agreement with the Kabaka, Museveni has added Mengo administration on the list of Baganda he has used to advance the interests of his people especially to secure permanent land ownership for them in Buganda. That Mengo administration possibly including Lukiiko has agreed not to criticize the central government for any commission or omission has signaled total surrender to Museveni administration.  Does that mean that Buganda is down and out forever? Not so fast.

The history of Buganda shows that the kingdom has been tested before and has come out the winner.

During the negotiations of the 1900 Agreement Sir Harry Johnston found Baganda negotiators much tougher than he had expected. In the end Buganda retained its traditional institutions including Lukiiko, Kabakaship, chiefs and culture. As the colonial administration proceeded Baganda refused to be dictated to by British officials who were finally converted from commissioners into residents and acted as advisers. Thus, a federal system of government was strengthened with Governor Dandus reforms of 1944.

When Governor Andrew Cohen exiled Kabaka Mutesa II to London for his refusal to negotiate constitutional reforms that he thought would weaken the status of Buganda, the Governor had thought Baganda would have another Kabaka who would toe the Governor's line. To his surprise all Baganda united and with support of other Ugandans demanded the return of the Kabaka which the Governor did.

Now Buganda is being tested again possibly at gun point this time. Will Baganda stand together and prevail again? And will the rest of Uganda stand with Buganda like before? Baganda and the rest of Ugandans have already registered their strong opposition to the Agreement.

What Baganda and indeed Ugandans need to know is that Museveni is a very sensitive person. When he realizes that the political temperature is rising beyond the comfort zone, Museveni pulls back. He has pulled back twice on the Mabira forest project. He has pulled back on the 2040 vision because the public rejected it. Museveni has abruptly dismissed Mayanja Nkangi as land commissioner because he was being accused of possible collaborating with Museveni administration in Buganda land purchase that has facilitated Buganda's foreign occupation.     

Museveni is waiting to hear what transpires at the Ttabamiruka conference before he takes a final decision. If Baganda at the conference pass a strong resolution rejecting the Agreement and the rest of Baganda and Ugandans endorse the resolution, Museveni will let the Agreement die quietly.

The death of the Agreement will come even faster if he hears that the Committee formed in March 2013 in London to prepare for a national conference on federalism next year will continue as planned. Already voices are being heard calling for a national conference and forming a transitional government to sort out the mess created by the NRM government before organizing free and fair multiparty elections.  

Ipso facto, the decisions to be taken at the Ttabamiruka conference will be very crucial. Make no mistake about that. If Museveni wins (and he will send a strong delegation among Baganda participants to do so) Buganda occupation will intensify because the Agreement has created room for that to happen. If Baganda win Buganda will be liberated from foreign occupation. Good luck to Buganda and Baganda.

Eric Kashambuzi

August 26, 2013