{UAH} Riek Machar may be main loser as peace talks drag on

Folks,

M7's fear is the resurgence of LRA luo power

JUBA

In the end the peace deal couldn't come soon enough for Riek Machar and his fighters.

Whilst fighters loyal to the former South Sudan deputy president continue to hold some towns in the country's oil-producing states, Dr Machar has found himself at a military disadvantage and isolated diplomatically.

The gunfight between rival factions of the presidential guard that started on the night of December 15 in Juba, the capital of South Sudan, was an extension of a long-running political contest between President Riek Machar and Dr Machar whom he fired from the cabinet last July.

Yet the domestic, in-party contest soon spread across half the country, fuelled along the way by deep-seated grievances and confrontations between the president's Dinka tribesmen and Dr Machar's Nuer.

At the height of his powers, forces loyal to Dr Machar controlled the strategic towns of Bentiu, Malakal close to the oil-producing areas, and Bor, only 190 kilometres north of Juba.

Dr Machar's initiative did not last long, however. First an assessment by Sudanese intelligence informed the policy wonks in Khartoum that Dr Machar's forces did not have the resupply lines and the local support to hold the territory.

Thus although President Omar al-Bashir had a history of cooperating with Dr Machar, he visited Juba and assured President Kiir that Khartoum would not support the rebels but urged him to end the uprising quickly and without disrupting the oil which is produced in the south and transported by pipeline to refineries in the north.

Dr Machar's second misfortune was the entry of the Uganda People's Defence Forces into the conflict.

Ugandan intelligence – and in particular President Museveni – have never forgiven or forgotten Dr Machar's ties with Joseph Kony and the Lord's Resistance Army.

Ugandan intelligence reports to President Museveni also warned of a resurgence of the LRA if Dr Machar took power in South Sudan or established a zone of military control.

Rebecca Nyandeng, wife of South Sudan's founding father the late John Garang visited Uganda and tried, unsuccessfully, to convince Mr Museveni that not only was Dr Machar a changed man, he also represented the progressive and reformist wing of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement.

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