{UAH} flight MH370 lost in an aeronautical black hole
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Was flight MH370 lost in an aeronautical black hole or did catastrophic power failure prevent air traffic control plotting its every move?
- Boeing 777's transponder should provide information to traffic controllers
- But at 1.20am on Saturday, transponder on flight MH370 stopped working
- Experts baffled by loss of communication and subsequent lack of debris
- One theory links 20 defence tech experts on board to electronic warfare
- Another suggests a bomb went off while plane flew over Malaysian jungle
- There are also 'aeronautical black holes' in the region that could mean the plane is hundreds - or even thousands - of miles away from searches
- Nuclear experts are now using a 'infrasound' to find out if an explosion took place at the altitude of the plane
By Ellie Zolfagharifard and Sarah Griffiths and Victoria Woollaston
PUBLISHED: 12:46 GMT, 11 March 2014 | UPDATED: 13:07 GMT, 11 March 2014
With technology tracking our every move, it seems incredible that a plane carrying 239 passengers could vanish into thin air.
Yet despite flight data recorders, location transponders and radio communication, the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 disappeared on a midnight flight out of Kuala Lumpur on Friday.
Experts have been left baffled by the loss of communication, with some putting forward radical theories including a mid-air bomb explosion, disappearance into an 'aeronautical black hole' and an attempt at electronic warfare.
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The Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777-200ER that disappeared from air traffic control screens Saturday (2011 file picture)
HOW ARE FLIGHTS TRACKED?
On board a plane there are cockpit voice and flight data recorders – the ‘black boxes’ – which each include a ‘pinger’ that sends a transmission up to 30 days after submersion underwater.
In the black box is an ASD-B flight transponder which, unlike the GPS in a car, broadcasts its location by sending information back to air traffic controllers every second.
Crews are also able to speak to their airline through discrete radio channels.
The missing aircraft was comfortably at a stage of flight when the pilot would have had plenty of time to report any mechanical problems to Air Traffic Control.
Black boxes on commercial aircraft also contain cockpit voice recorders which could provide some insight into what went wrong on that plane at 1am on Friday morning.
It remains a mystery why no one can make contact with the box.
The mystery has deepened after reports emerged that relatives have been able to call the mobiles of their missing loved ones. This would be impossible if the phones were underwater.
Dr Martyn Thomas from the Institution of Engineering and Technology, told MailOnline that he thinks that a deliberate cutting of power to the plane’s communication instruments might explain the aircraft’s disappearance.
He suggests a sudden decompression of the plane may have taken place and effectively knocked out the pilot and passengers – as well as the communication equipment.
In this scenario, the plane could have flown on using its autopilot without any human influence and ‘could be anywhere within about 2,000 miles’.
The possibility of electronic warfare has also been raised following confirmation that there were at least 20 passengers onboard from Texas-based Freescale Semiconductor with specialist knowledge of electronic technology for defence applications.
This could include ‘cloaking’ technology that uses a hexagonal array of glasslike panels to bend light around an object, such as plane, according to a report in Beforeitsnews.com.
Other techniques may have been used to jam signals, allowing the plane to vanish from radar detection without its security systems being activated.
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‘It is conceivable that the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 plane is “cloaked,” hiding with hi-tech electronic warfare weaponry that exists and is used,’ Beforeitsnews.com wrote.
The search for the missing aircraft has widened considerably after previous prediction of its whereabouts proved fruitless. It remains a mystery how a Boeing 777 could have disappeared without a trace in such relatively shallow seas
The interior of the cockpit of a Boeing 777, similar to the one that disappeared early Saturday morning
WHAT COULD HAVE HAPPENED TO THE BLACK BOX?
The black box - which is actually orange - is used to record any instruction sent to the aircraft as well as conversations on radio and between the crew.
When a plane is lost, the black box pings at a certain frequency for between 30 to 70 days and it can be detected within around five or six miles.
The box itself is designed to withstand the high impact of a plane crash, the pressures of the deep sea and the high and low temperatures of fire and ice.
‘But search parties could miss it if they are not close enough or are not detecting the correct frequency’, Dr Stewart John told MailOnline.
There also remains the possibility that a powerful enough force, such as a bomb, could have completely destroy the black box on the Malaysia flight.
The black box may also be too deep in the ocean for the recovery team to find. Honeywell’s black box units, for instance, emit signals that can be heard from 2.8 miles deep.
‘In fact, this type of technology is precisely the expertise of Freescale that has 20 employees on board the missing flight.’
‘These were people with a lot of experience and technical background and they were very important people,’ Mr Mitch Haws, Global communications officer for the tech company, said.
The company recently launched a major initiative dedicated to serving radio frequency power needs of U.S. aerospace and defence sector.
Another possibility is that the plane fell into an 'aeronautical black hole' in the region, according to Stewart John, an aeronautical expert and Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering.
Radar is used to track planes over land in inhabited areas but when planes venture over remote lands, such as the inner part of Russia or over the jungles of Malaysia, the only way of tracking them is the aircraft sending back information at regular intervals, he explained.
If the aircraft remained airborne after the last check-in it could still be hundreds of miles away from where people are searching.
Dr John thinks it is more likely that the aircraft was destroyed by an ‘explosive decompression’ – likely be a bomb on-board the plane.
The plane would also have been fitted with an indestructible black box recorder and a beacon to continue transmitting its location should it land in water
He said that if a door or window was blown out, a pilot would be able to manage the situation. he explained that the catastrophe ‘had to be explosive [for the aircraft] to fall down from the sky…it would be more than just a panel blowing out’.
He added: ‘If they lost both engines, the pilot would have around 20 minutes - roughly equivalent to 70 to 80miles - to glide down from an altitude of 30,000 feet.’
The mystery of why no debris has been found at sea or over land is also leaving experts baffled, but there is a theory that if the plane crashed in the jungle, tall rubber trees, which are common in the region, could cover the crash site easily.
Dr John said: ‘If it came down in a controlled way, it would carve a path through the trees – you would see a kind of runway – so it’s got to be a catastrophe and something out of the normal.’
WHAT HAPPENED TO FLIGHT 370? SOME MORE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
THEORY: A bomb
One of the theories surrounding the missing plane is that a terrorist boarded the plane and blew it up in mid-air. The theory was favoured after the discovery of two stolen passports linked to people with tickets for the flight.
Robert Francis, former vice chairman of the U.S. National Transportation Board told Local10.com that if flight 370 was blown up there would have been no signal and the plane could disappear from radar without warning.
Problem: So far no debris of wreckage has been found that would indicate the aircraft was destroyed by a bomb blast. It is unlikely that any explosion would have been captured by orbiting satellites as they could have to pass over the exact location at the correct time to record a flash from above. Experts have confirmed that oil slicks and debris found in the South China Sea didn’t originate from flight 370.
THEORY: Mechanical failure
The aircraft could have suffered a massive mechanical failure, which caused it to plummet onto water without breaking up. It could have sunk without leaving any debris behind.
Problem: In the past, pilots have managed to glide a plane more slowly down when engines have failed, giving them time to send an SOS. But no emergency signal was made, which would seem likely if pilots had to make the decision to ditch the aircraft.
THEORY: Hijacking
Radar data has indicated that the plane might have made a U-turn to head back to Kuala Lumur, which some experts think might indicate that the aircraft was hijacked.
Problem: There are no reports of flight crew sending any signals to get help, which would be expected in a hijacking scenario.
THEORY: Pilot error
In all air mysteries, there is a chance that an error of judgement by the pilot was to blame.
Problem: It is impossible to know if this is the case while the plane has yet to be recovered. A handful of aviation experts have compared flight 370 to an Air France disaster in 2009 when flight 447 went missing in a storm on the way to Brazil. After years of searching, the aircraft’s black box was recovered and revealed that pilots failed to attempt any recovery manoeuvres, but aside from the lack of evidence the Malaysia Air pilots acted in a similar way, weather was relatively good along Flight 370’s route.
On Monday, the head of the organisation that monitors the nuclear test ban treaty said he has asked its experts to see if they detected an explosion at the altitude of the missing plane.
Lassina Zerbo, executive director of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) explained to a news conference that experts can use 'infrasound; - or infrasonic sensors - to monitor the planet for atmospheric nuclear explosions.
'There's a possibility, it's not absolute, that the technology like the Infrazone could be able to detect an explosion,' he said in response to a question by CBS News.
Infrasound are acoustic waves with very low frequencies that are inaudible to the human ear are called infrasound.
'Infrasound is produced by a variety of natural and man-made sources: exploding volcanoes, earthquakes, meteors, storms and auroras in the natural world; nuclear, mining and large chemical explosions, as well as aircraft and rocket launches in the man-made arena,' the CTBTO said.
Malaysia's Department Civil Aviation Director General, Azharuddin Abdul Rahman (left) with Malaysian Airlines CEO Group Ahmad Jauhari Yahya (right) during a press conference on the new search area
The Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 disappeared along with 239 people on a midnight flight out of Kuala Lumpur on Friday.
On board were cockpit voice and flight data recorders – the ‘black boxes’ – which each include a ‘pinger’ that sends a transmission up to 30 days after submersion.
It was with an ASD-B flight transponder which, unlike the GPS in a car, broadcasts its location by sending information back to air traffic controllers every second.
Crews are also able to speak to their airline through 'discrete radio channels', according to aviation expert John Goglia, writing on the Forbes website.
WHY ARE THE PHONES STILL RINGING?
After three days, wouldn’t the phone batteries be dead by now?
Not necessarily. Smartphones are renowned for their poor battery life and will typically last up to around 24 hours. But the batteries on older, feature phones can last much longer.
For example, the Nokia 100 boasts a standby battery life of a staggering 35 days. Smartphone batteries can also last longer if the handset isn’t being used, and especially if the phone is in Flight Mode.
However, if the phone is in Flight Mode, it switches off all wireless activity meaning calls wouldn’t be able to connect, effectively ruling out this theory.
If the phone batteries are dead, wouldn’t the call go straight to voicemail?
In a word, yes. However, the process of sending the call to voicemail can differ depending on the service provider.
For example, the majority of phones will go straight to voicemail, or callers will get an out of service message if voicemail hasn’t been set up.
This will occur even if the phone is underwater, or not near a cell signal.
However, some service providers will ring once or twice before the phone goes to voicemail, or cut off. This may explain the reports that claimed phones rang before seeming to hang up.
Some reports claim the phones are just ringing and ringing though. How is this possible?
Telecoms expert Alan Spencer told MailOnline that if the phones are really ringing, they can categorically not be under the sea.
Although he added that the phones will only be ringing if they are ‘switched on, not in water, the battery is charged, and [they are] near a mobile cell site.’
This means that if the phones are genuinely ringing, the plane needs to have landed on land – not in the sea – and be in a location where there is cell service, rather than landing in the middle of a jungle, for example.
Why can’t network operators locate the phones?
A number of family members have asked the network operators why they can’t use the phone’s signal to locate the missing people.
Professor William Webb, a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering, told MailOnline: ‘The phones definitely won't be working. They'll be underwater, out of coverage and by this time out of battery.
‘So there's absolutely no way they could be used for triangulation.
‘As to why they are ‘ringing’ it'll be the same as if they were out of coverage - in some cases it may ring before going to voicemail.’
What about the T3212 timer I’ve read about?
The T3212 is a timer that causes a phone to periodically send a message to the network saying where it is.
But Professor Webb said this only works when the phone is turned on and it is in coverage. It won't work when the battery is dead.
What about reports that passengers are appearing online, on the QQ social network?
When people sign into social networks including QQ, as well as Facebook, they appear online.
This is the case whether they’ve signed in on a phone, tablet, PC, and laptop. If missing passengers are shown as online, they may not be using the service on their phone. Instead they may still be logged in on another device.
If this other device shuts down or goes into standby, however, or there is a long period of inactivity, the social network will log them out, which may explain why some accounts went from online to offline over a period of three days.
A cabin crew of Division 918 of the Vietnam Air Force is onboard a flying Soviet-made AN-26 during the search operations
'A complete electrical failure is extremely unlikely because of redundancies in the system’ he said.
THE UNANSWERED QUESTIONS
How can a plane simply disappear?
Why can't we make contact with the black box?
Why are the passengers' phone still ringing? And why are they showing as being online?
Why is there no debris?
Why would the plane do a u-turn to Kuala Lumpur?
If it was an act of terrorism, why has no organisation come forward?
Why did Malaysia Airlines report inconsistent times for the disappearance of the craft?
‘Especially the ram air turbine which uses the power of the wind generated by the aircraft’s motion in flight to generate electricity which would power critical navigation and communication systems, as well as flight controls.
'But even if the aircraft had a complete electrical failure, the aircraft could have continued to fly.'
He goes on to argue the plane could have eventually flown to an area where it would have been picked up again by radar, suggesting it was 'too early to speculate' on what has caused the disappearance.
Currently all that is known is the missing flight underwent ‘a steep and sudden descent’ and changed its heading.
An iPad is used to support orientation by a military official inside a Vietnamese Air Force plane during search and rescue operations for the missing Malaysian Airlines flight
Other theories on what may have happened include terrorism, a cockpit emergency such as a fire that prevented a mayday being broadcast, pilot error or a sudden, catastrophic break-up of the airplane.
The only way to find out is through the flight recorders.
Searchers are listening out for flight MH370's 406 megahertz Emergency Locator Transmitter, a unit that separates from aircraft wreckage and floats when it is immersed in saltwater.
Nine nations have now joined the attempt to find the mission. The operation involves 34 aircraft, 40 ships and a battery of search and rescue technologies.
The U.S. has flown a Lockheed Martin P-3C long-range search aircraft from its base in Okinawa, Japan, to Kuala Lumpur to undertake 10-hour nonstop search missions.
Vietnamese military personnel prepare a helicopter for a search and rescue mission for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight
And the USS Pinckney, a guided missile destroyer, has been deployed so its two Sikorsky MH-60 Seahawk helicopters can be used to get close to any suspect wreckage.
The aircraft can also drop ‘sonobuoys’ which are floating devices that listen underwater and transmit what they detect via a radio antenna.
The disappearance of the Malaysian aircraft has some similarities to the Air France flight vanished from radar screens an hour or so after take-off from Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, on 1 June 2009
It crashed in waters 4 km deep in the Atlantic's and so was difficult to find. This jet, however, is likely to have gone down in waters just 100 metres deep, according to experts.
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