{UAH} ANALYSING THE KAYIHURA TAPE RECORDINGS

ANALYSING THE KAYIHURA TAPE RECORDINGS

The whole saga reveals the following aspects:-

1.    Under Museveni, all the intelligence gathering is directed towards spying on democratic political opponents other than enemies of the state of Uganda. The IGP, Kayihura was gathering information about the activities of those intending to democratically contest for the Presidency against Museveni. The IGP's role confirms what a loyal cadre of the NRA is supposed to do.

2.   His actions further confirm how Museveni runs parallel intelligence organs - one of them now under. The traditional civil intelligence outfit (ISO) has lost Museveni's confidence. Its evidence that the Mbabazi network has infiltrated the organisation yet according to Museveni it is supposed to be a structure of his political party with total loyalty to him only. The recently much publicised statement pertaining to spy agency running out of funds alludes to the fact that those funds have been deliberately withheld so as to incapacitate it. The arrest and trial in a court martial of one of its senior directors (Maj. Muramagi) over treasonous allegations is a further confirmation. Another senior officer (Capt Katabazi)'s association with the Mbabazis is under investigation and very soon we may see action taken against him and the entire security detail of Prime Minister Mbabazi.

3.   Information peddling has always been big business under Museveni. The boom is during such times when there is a perceived thread against Museveni's life presidency project. The system always puts in place huge amounts of cash for such projects. Actually much as the information peddlers (who are civilians in most cases) reap big, its the officers managing such projects who take the lions share through concocted intelligence briefs and inflated threat assessment. By voluntarily coming to Kayihura, Ahamad Kasirivu was motivated by financial gain. He had done a lot of dirty work for the system in the past but had not only financially benefited but had been abandoned as usual. That is why when the opportunity resurfaced through being approached by the Mbabazi's, he saw an opportunity to reap big from camps. Both camps are using cash as the motivating factor. While the Museveni camp drawing from the national coffers and the project managers are diverting the lions share personal use, the Mbabazi camp is using personal resources - as to how they accumulated those resources is another question. By the 2016 general elections time, the uncontrolled flow of cash will have created trouble for the economy.

4.   Out of ignorance many Ugandans are amused at the wayKayihura is issuing millions of shillings to Kasirivu! They do not know that for decades now this is how the Museveni system has been managing security and political undertakings. Cash is issued out like beans. As Kasirivu took out the one million shillings, another three million was pocketed by Kayihura - disguised as meant for "another group". This "another group" could be Kayihura himself, his family member, his workers, friends etc. By ordering the officer to "give another three million for another group" at the same time Kasirivu was getting the one million, Kayihura is trying to hoodwink the junior officer who is taking custody of the cash into believing that his boss is drawing the three million shillings for official duties. It has been a practise by many intelligence managers to even bring to the office such relatives, workers, private contractors to the office. After being ushered into the boss's office and at the end of a private discussion, the boss calls the cashier and instructs him to give such a visitor any amount of cash with instructions that he should sign for such money under guise of being intelligence agents/informers. The cashier and the boss's close aides will not question the authenticity of such a transaction. Some intelligent aides and cashiers have also been benefiting a lot by also manipulating financial records. The same applies to other resources like fuel, clearance of imported goods, secondment for employment in both government and  the private sector.The practice is even done by Museveni in State House whereby public resources are issued to friends and political patrons under the guise of carrying out special assignments. Usually the source of such funds is State House special funds and could even be in foreign currency. Moreover, such expenditures are not open to public scrutiny. That is how intelligence managers(past and present) have managed to accumulate amazing personal wealth. The  Mbabazis are aware of such fleecing and diversion of such funds by Museveni's camp managers and that is why they are not worried of the financial might from their adversaries. Even Museveni is aware that his managers fleece him of almost 70% of the resources that he commits to his dirty politicking. That is why sometimes, he personally delivers the cash to the beneficiaries through the issuing of brown envelopes and sacs of cash. 

4.   By the time Kayihura met kasirivu the former had already known the later's story through Sebina Sekitoleko and other sources. Kasirivu must have been convinced by Sebina Sekitoleko to report to Kayihura. That is why Kayihura met Kasirivu in the presence of Sebina. Thats why Kayihura organised the tape recording in order to get something concrete to deliver to Mzei (Museveni) and does less talking during the proceedings. Before meeting Kayihura Sebina and Kasirivu must have discussed at length what to give Kayihura and what not to give him and at what stage so as to optimally gain financially. The two concocted the inclusion of Gen Aronda and Brig. James Mugira in the hope that their information would gain more weight. Like majority Ugandans, the two did not know the two army officers are eternally attached to Museveni. In the same vein they went ahead to involve the top church leaders. Like all information peddlers, Kasirivu was reluctant to give details of all the information he had unless Kayihura came out very clear on what benefits were due to him. Its clear Kasirivu aimed at having an audience with Museveni from whom he hoped to gain more financially including resurrecting his earlier unfulfilled pledges. That is why when Kayihuraso that he can use it to either rob or intimidate the population. Like many others, when Salongo Ssenkayi was a DMI mole in Mengo, he was armed with a pistol. 

5.   Kasirivu laments about how he has accomplished alot of tasks for the NRA but was not paid. He reveals how him together with others under the command of Lt Musinguzi and Grace Turyagumanawe had masterminded the Kyunga fiasco when the Kabaka was blocked from visiting Kayunga resulting into  bloody riots. This confirms that its the likes of Kasirivu and company who have been the goons behind the disruption of peace during peaceful demonstrations, burning of Kasubi Tombs and other fires in the city, Kiboko Squad and all the chaos aimed at tarnishing the image of the opposition.  By admitting that they helped certain election contestants to gain victory,  Kayihura also confirming the partisan involvement of security forces in election rigging. 

6.   What the Mbabazis have been doing is a lawful act of mobilising support for a democratic presidential bid. The only issue at hand is that they have been doing it secretly and Mbabazi is reluctant to declare his Presidential bid for fear of grave consequences from Museveni. Under Museveni a mere intent to vie for the top office or becoming popular amounts to high treason. Thats is why retired Captain Ruhinda Maguru is under incerceration. In a civilised society, there is nothing wrong with such and it would be the work of the NRM secretariate to sort out that and not members of security forces. However, since its the Secretary General who is harboring intentions, Museveni is cornered. The Mbabazis have eaten into all the structures of Museveni's private company - the NRA. The Kasirivus dont qualify to be called inelligence agents or informants for there is neither an enemy of the state nor a crime being comitted. There is no justification for Kayihura the IGP to use public resources in gathering information against those intending to contest against Museveni. That is why the Police officers were able to take the said tape recordings to the Mbabazis. To the nation such officers are patriotic but to Museveni they are subversives. 

For now what Museveni can do is to drop Mabazi from Cabinet, concoct treasonous allegations against him and carry out a purge against all those whose loyalty is questionable. At worst, Museveni can either amend the NRA constitution to escape the delegates conference where the Mbabazis have laid a deadly ambush or postpone the 2016 general elections. On their part, the Mbabazis have been making calculatations basing on the much craved for change by Ugandans which the traditional opposition groups have failed to deliver. Mbabazi has moblised so much support within the NRM such that the main stream opposition can not achieve much without involving him. Mbabazi's differences with Museveni are irreconcilable and no doubt further isolates the later leaving him to only bank on the Hima/Rwandese ticket in the NRA.

7.   It is Gen Robert Aronda as Minister of Internal Affairs and Museveni's closest confidant in the NRA who is remotely controlling the actions of Gen Kayihura against perceived opposition to Museveni's life presidency project. As a master of intrigue having been mentored by Museveni himself, Aronda unlike Kayihura operates from underground. He pretends to be shy and humble but is a very dangerous substitute. Much as Kahihura,s role in the saga has come to the public attention because of the leakage, there are many more groups and individuals running the same project and the financial cost is amazing. They all compete to attract the attention of Museveni. For General Kayihura, he was let down by excitement since he lacked experience in handling intelligence.

INFORMATION IS POWER 

Posted by Uganda - A Change of Guards! a

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