{UAH} Uganda opposition rigging the poll? Bring in the military - Comment - www.theeastafrican.co.ke

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Uganda opposition rigging the poll? Bring in the military - Comment

Beyond some dictator or other's immediate need to hang on to power, sham elections have other uses.

As events in Egypt show, by pretending there has been an election, the entire spectrum of role playing can be acted out without inconvenient political and diplomatic hiccups.

The West can recognise the "new government" and congratulate them on a successful democratic outcome; the local elites can go back to jostling for government tenders and jobs for their children; and the opposition who participated are left without an argument as to why they participated in a process they now call a fraud.

A naked coup d'état can create domestic complications in the donor countries that impede the flow of trade and aid. Locally, the soldiers now running things will also eventually begin to muscle in on civilian crony deals, and the opposition will be given the excuse to begin an armed struggle.

For these reasons, it is best avoided for as long as possible. But this does not mean forever. The day may well come when the strongman is left with no option.

The one enduring image from Uganda's 1996 presidential election is of candidate Yoweri Museveni suddenly appearing on national television, late on the night of polling day.

His message was simple: First, the supporters of the opposition candidate should immediately stop their celebrations forthwith as these were "premature"; second, nobody should assume to know more than the (still silent) election authorities about the voting outcome; and third, Ugandans should be reminded that he was speaking not just as head of state, but also as a founder of the army.  

Given his decision to wear military fatigues, and despite the rather odd pair of spectacle perched on his nose, the message got through.

Uganda had not had a fair election prior to this, and clearly did not have one then, and beyond the technical ability to deliver fraudulent outcomes in a less ham-fisted manner, matters have not improved since then.

Understandably therefore, Uganda's current opposition is making much of the outcomes of last week's parliamentary by-election where Museveni's ruling National Resistance Movement went down to a humiliating defeat.

Certainly, there is much that is noteworthy in the manner of their victory: first, it was for a parliamentary seat in Luweero district, considered sacred ground for the NRM, given its role as their first base during the civil war that brought them to power. As such, it is supposed to be the one place where their "revolutionary" bond with "the masses" is unbreakable.

Second, it was for a women's seat, a demographic in which the NRM is supposed to have another unshakable bond forged during the "revolution". The defeat has helped bury those twin myths.

Third, this defeat comes as the latest in a near complete succession of electoral defeats for the ruling party in various parts of the country, a succession into which the opposition now reads a trend.

Fourth, it was perhaps the first concrete result from the opposition parties' new strategy of uniting to field one candidate against the ruling party. This was spiced up by the sight of Dr Gilbert Bukenya, former vice-president of Uganda, and still an official of the ruling party, campaigning for the opposition's candidate.

Finally, the fact that President Museveni campaigned in person for his party's doomed candidate only sweetened the opposition victory.

But the crowning event for them was the bizarre missive the president then released to the media alleging collusion in "vote-rigging" between the opposition parties and election officials. Opposition leaders promptly reminded him of their long-standing demands for electoral reform.

Perhaps they should be careful what they wish for, as such presidential concern could well lead to changes, but not the ones they expect.

The ruse of sham elections seems to have finally now expired. But since losing an election in Uganda has never meant also losing power, this simply means that the regime must now organise other ways by which this power may be retained.

This is where other recent pronouncements may have greater significance. For some time now, President Museveni has been making the point that government activities headed by military officers — never mind the legalities — have been producing better results than activities left under civilian leadership.

Already, military officers have been deployed to various parts of the countryside to head "service delivery" initiatives in a way that totally bypasses the local government system.

Most recently, the Office of the President announced the dissolution of the national body charged with the reorganisation and development of Uganda's crisis-ridden agricultural sector. This came just a few days after he had made the point in a public speech about how a similar programme within the military had been producing much better results.

With the presidential criticisms about the Electoral Commission, the opposition should be wary that this does not lead to a formal role for the military in managing the next election, or even a full-blown military intervention into the question of how the next government gets into place, as has now happened at the other end of the Nile.

Uganda opposition rigging the poll? Bring in the military - Comment - www.theeastafrican.co.ke

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/OpEd/comment/Uganda-opposition-rigging-the-poll--Bring-in-the-military-/-/434750/2332962/-/1qkpqmz/-/index.html

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