{UAH} EAC must provide 'Praetorian Guard' for Burundi's coming election - Comment - www.theeastafrican.co.ke
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EAC must provide 'Praetorian Guard' for Burundi's coming election - Comment
Burundian police patrol the streets of Bujumbura. The force has been accused of using excessive force against opposition figures. AFP PHOTO
The implosion of South Sudan late last year caught its East African neighbours flat-footed. It also jolted regional leaders to fast-track the development of a peace and security policy and architecture.
South Sudan is emboldening new paradigms of regionalism, which are now highlighting peace and security as the most pressing concerns and drivers of the future direction of regional integration.
Although the framers of the Treaty establishing the East African Community recognised peace and security as a prerequisite for social, economic and political development of the region, security co-operation has perhaps been the most neglected aspect of integration.
But this situation is changing. East Africa is busy forging a "Praetorian Guard" — an elite force — to secure peace in the region. The Praetorian Guard was a force of bodyguards used by Roman Emperors.
In February last year, the five EAC partner states signed a Peace and Security Protocol outlining co-operation in ensuring peace and security for the region. The protocol envisages the establishment of a Council of the EAC and a director-general in charge of peace and security.
Save for Tanzania, all the other EAC member states are part of a process of fast-tracking the establishment of a 5,000-strong East African Standby Force (EASF) consisting of military, police and civilian components.
This elite force, comprising troops from Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, Sudan, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Seychelles and Comoros, is expected to be ready for deployment by December 2014, ahead of elections in Burundi.
Burundi seems the most likely debut destination for the elite force. After a decade of ethnic conflict, Burundi, along with Rwanda, formally joined the five-member EAC on July 1, 2007. The country's coming election on June 26, 2015 is poised to test to the limit East Africa's emerging peace and security architecture.
Events in this country with its population of 10.3 million are already casting a pall of uncertainty over the fragile peace and the coming election. Some analysts like the Mary Baldwin College professor Cara Jones are even fearing "the return of civil war."
Burundi's experiment with multiparty democracy is a work in progress. The road to democracy is heavily mined with Hutu-Tutsi ethnic tensions overlaid with grievances relating to scarcity of land, poverty, joblessness and post-colonial tyranny.
In March 1992, Tutsi military leader Pierre Buyoya took the first bold step in establishing a multiparty process based on a new constitution. But this was cut short when Tutsi soldiers assassinated Melchior Ndadaye, the first democratically elected (and the first Hutu) head of state in October 1993.
Burundi descended into bloodletting, which claimed 300,000 lives and pushed thousands into the neighbouring countries as refugees.
The 2000 Arusha Peace Accord that ended the civil war in 2005 tried to put Burundi's political system on an even ethnic keel. The prevailing peace is a delicate system of ethnic balancing that allocates 60 per cent of power in the National Assembly to the Hutu majority and 40 per cent to the Tutsi minority.
But the centre in this balancing system seems not to be holding, making the future uncertain.
Constitutional battleground
Burundi's Constitution is now the source of a fierce political contest. The first question is the eligibility of President Pierre Nkurunziza for a third term in office, which has sparked a legal debate. Although the president has served two terms, his supporters maintain that his first term was not by universal suffrage. As such, he is technically eligible to run for a third term if this constitutional proviso is observed.
"The constitution provides for two terms by universal suffrage. The first term was not a direct vote. It's a matter of interpretation of the constitution," said Burundi's Assistant Home Affairs Minister Evariste Sabiyumva.
It has not helped matters that late last year, President Nkurunziza's allies attempted to introduce changes to the constitution, a move that encountered fierce protest from the opposition and civil society, who accused the ruling elite of trying to kill democracy.
Former vice-president Frédéric Bamvuginyumvira, a member of the Front pour la Démocratie au Burundi (Frodebu) party, argued that the changes would go against the letter and spirit of the Arusha Peace Accord.
One of the proposed amendments sought to replace the two ethnically balanced and pivotal vice-presidential offices with that of a ceremonial VP and a powerful prime minister.
Related to this was an amendment requiring that presidential candidates have a university degree. This was perceived as an attempt to lock out Agathon Rwasa, a Hutu militia leader during the Burundi Civil War and leader of the Forces Nationales De Liberation (FNL), who has declared his interest in the presidency.
But shutting Rwasa out of the presidential race is widely viewed as a risky gamble owing to his popularity among the Hutu youth.
The second set of changes targeted for removal the two-thirds parliamentary vote requirement to pass laws to be replaced with a lower threshold of a simple majority.
Tutsi MPs, who hold 40 per cent of seats in parliament, accused the government of trying to consolidate Hutu dominance in the House and political decision-making processes.
"Parliament [now] requires a two-thirds majority to pass laws, but the proposals are calling for this to be amended to a 50 per cent plus one vote majority. Now Hutus alone can pass a decision," said François Bizimana, spokesperson of the Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD) party.
Pre-election tinkering with the constitution, however well meant, can only fuel inter-ethnic suspicion and animosity.
In the run up to the election, the international community has accused the ruling CNDD-FDD and President Nkurunziza's government of increased intolerance.
On July 29, 2014, the London-based Amnesty International released a sensational report,Burundi Locked Down: A Shrinking of Political Space, accusing the government of curtailing the freedoms of expression, association and peaceful assembly and fomenting politicised violence.
Amnesty has accused the government of intolerance, charging that the ruling CNDD-FDD party's youth wing, Imbonerakure, have "strong links to the security services and have orchestrated violent incidents against the opposition with impunity."
"The government's clampdown on free expression and peaceful assembly has serious implications for human rights ahead of next year's elections," said Tom Gibson, Amnesty's Burundi researcher.
Contraction of political rights
Cara Jones has also alleged "serious contraction of political rights and social freedoms."
Despite this, the government seems aware of the delicate peace in the country and the need for national reconciliation, cohesion and integration.
On April 17, the country passed a new law setting up the Peace and Reconciliation Commission (PRC) to deal with rising ethnic tensions. But the PRC faces challenges of perception and political inclusivity. Its members are said to have been selected by the president and approved solely by the ruling party.
Burundi is also caught up in the unending ideological battle between advocates of forgiveness and reconciliation and their critics calling for retributive justice.
Despite this, Burundi's election ship has left the dock. Its National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) is trying to play by the rules.
On July 19, its president, Pierre Claver Ndayicariye, formally released the roadmap for the elections. According to the guidelines, the registration of voters kicks off on September 22 this year, while the elections for various offices are scheduled between May and August 2015.
Municipal and legislative polls take place on May 26, 2015; presidential election on June 26; and a run-off on July 27, should the results of the first round necessitate one. Senate elections are planned for July 17, and elections for the district and hilly area councillors will be held on August 24.
The elections will cost $39 million.
In June 2014, a code of conduct was adopted, binding on the government and all political parties.
Impartiality of security forces
But the impartiality of the security forces is central to the success of the election. The government dismissed the claims by the UN and civil society that the military is training the ruling party's youth wing as false.
In the build-up to the 2015 elections, the military, which has in the past been involved in politics, needs to be seen to be professional and politically impartial.
The police are constitutionally mandated to enforce law and order during the election period. But there are increasing accusations of use of excessive force against the opposition.
On March 8, the police arrested 22 people who were jogging on accusations of being members of MSD, an opposition party. This led to a clash between the police and MSD members in which two policemen were taken hostage by the party youths. In reaction, police fired live bullets at the crowd, killing nine. Several policemen were also injured.
On March 18, 70 MSD followers were charged on multiple counts of rebellion, insults and acts of violence against law enforcement agents, grievous bodily harm, and participation in an insurrectional movement.
On March 21, the High Court of Bujumbura sentenced 21 to life, 10 to 10 years, and 14 to five years in prison. Some 22 accused were acquitted. Another three defendants aged 17 were tried in a court for minors and sentenced to two years in prison.
"If the 2015 elections are to be free and fair, it is crucial for the government to end its repression and make every effort to prevent tension," said Daniel Bekele, Africa director at Human Rights Watch.
While Burundi has a fairly active media and a vibrant civil society, critics say a new media law puts restrictions on reporting on issues that touch on the state, public security and the economy. The new law imposes harsh fines of up to BIF6,000,000 ($3,760) on those found guilty of the offences.
Relations between the UN and the government are becoming increasingly frosty. In April, a leaked cable from Parfait Onanga Anyanga, the UN Secretary-General's representative in Bujumbura, to the Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon claimed that in one of Burundi's provinces, the military was arming and logistically supporting Imbonerakure and demobilised soldiers.
The Security Council Report, a New York-based non-profit group that monitors the UN Security Council work, claimed that the ruling party supplied the youth wing with weapons and military uniforms in January and February this year. Bujumbura denied the charges.
First Vice President Terence Sinunguruza demanded that the UN provide evidence to back up its allegations or apologise.
Burundi has flatly dismissed a proposal by the UN Secretary-General's Special Adviser for the Prevention of Genocide Adama Dieng calling for the establishment of an independent investigation commission into the allegations.
Once again, the UN is in a conundrum. Perhaps what is more instructive over and above the exchange between the UN and Bujumbura is the effect of the UN presence in Burundi. The UN's role in peace-building in the country cannot be gainsaid. But the lack of a clear exit strategy reflects a general problem facing the UN across the continent.
The EAC has to ensure a peaceful election in Burundi. Fast-tracking of the East Africa Standby Force is critical in case it becomes necessary to secure the 2015 elections.
As a signatory of this mechanism, Burundi has agreed to a military intervention should there be a threat to stability.
But the real impact is that its membership of the regional force is a deterrent to the political elite in Bujumbura hell-bent on pushing the country back to instability.
So far, there is political will among East African leaders to ensure a peaceful election. President Paul Kagame of Rwanda, the current chair of the Assembly of the Heads of State and Government, directed that the force be up and running by the close of 2014. Kigali has also contributed a motorised battalion of 850 soldiers, 10 armoured vehicles and 35 doctors. Uganda has pledged a battalion of 736 Uganda People's Defence Forces troops.
Just as it did before the election in August 2009, the EAC needs to visit the country before 2015 to assess the situation.
Burundi can also benefit from the forum established by EAC electoral bodies to harmonise laws, policies and practices as well as exchange of information. Under this mechanism, the EAC states can pressure Burundi to adhere to policies that ensure free and fair elections.
Professor Peter Kagwanja is the chief executive of the Africa Policy Institute; Laureen Wesonga is a policy analyst with the Africa Policy Institute. This article of part of the Institute's Africa Security Report.
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