WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20, 2014

Why, despite Ebola, Kenya Airways was smart not to cut off Nigeria – yet

A Kenya Airways jet sits on the tarmac at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi. What KQ can do here, is claim points for Ebola pragmatism, writes Charles Onyango-Obbo. PHOTO | FILE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

A Kenya Airways jet sits on the tarmac at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Nairobi. What KQ can do here, is claim points for Ebola pragmatism, writes Charles Onyango-Obbo.PHOTO | FILE | NATION MEDIA GROUP  

In Summary

  • Of course, if there is a major escalation of the disease, Ethiopian might pull out, but the signs are that the virus is beginning to taper off, and the Ethiopians are looking like they have stolen a match on KQ on this one.
  • The decision, to be honest, would be fairly easy. Let Ebola kill 500, and Dangote build his cement factory.
  • Most countries would hesitate to blacklist ET because it is flying to Ebola-affected countries. ET wouldn't have to fight that battle, the government would do it on its behalf.
By CHARLES ONYANGO-OBBO
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The current wave of Ebola in West Africa has generated some intriguing "Ebola politics and economics".

Kenya Airways has suspended its flights to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. According to the World Health Organisation, 1,229 people have died of Ebola since the beginning of this year.

Most of the deaths have been in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia – the three worst-hit countries. Nigeria too has been affected, but not as dramatically, and four people have died there.

Now, the three leading African airlines fighting to dominate air travel in Africa are Kenya Airways, South African Airways, and Ethiopian Airlines. While KQ has suspended Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, Ethiopian has not.

Its response came late on Tuesday when it posted a joint statement by the WHO, the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO), Airports Council International (ACI), International Air Transport Association (IATA), and the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) advising against travel bans to Ebola-affected countries on its Twitter page.

The statement said they were not recommending a ban because the "risk of transmission of Ebola during air travel is low".

The result is that KQ is left looking like a fair-weather friend, keen to do business in West Africa when it is smooth sailing, and abandoning the region when the going gets tough.

Of course, if there is a major escalation of the disease, Ethiopian might pull out, but the signs are that the virus is beginning to taper off, and the Ethiopians are looking like they have stolen a match on KQ on this one. Of course, that translates into more West African travel money in the bank for Ethiopian.

However, even more interesting, is to see which other major African carrier will pull out of Nigeria at this point. My sense is that none is in a hurry to do so. That country is overflowing with Africa's poorest people, but also its richest.

In recent years, Nigerian tycoons have been buying more private jets than those in any country in the world. Its fleet of such jets is nearing 250 – probably more than the rest of Africa combined.

Nigerian cement magnate Aliko Dangote is the wealthiest man in Africa, and the richest black person in the world. Everywhere in Africa, presidents and governments are buttering him up so he can set up cement and other factories in their countries.

I can see a hardnosed business-minded African president working out the cost of letting Ebola kill 500 of his citizens (most of them poor or working class folks), or shutting off Nigeria over the fear of the disease, and run the risk of Abuja twisting Dangote's arms and forcing him to cancel an investment that would create thousands of jobs and bring millions of dollars into the economy.

The decision, to be honest, would be fairly easy. Let Ebola kill 500, and Dangote build his cement factory. And the Nigerians – just ask the South Africans – are famed for striking back. You treat them shabbily, they retaliate.

'EBOLA DISCOUNT'

The Ethiopians too have a similar stubborn streak, so the risk to their airline is less than it is to KQ's. For example, most countries would hesitate to blacklist ET because it is flying to Ebola-affected countries. ET wouldn't have to fight that battle, the government would do it on its behalf.

KQ, on the other hand, would have to fight most of its battles if it got into trouble. Mostly the Kenyan Government would adopt the trademark gently-bite-blow deal, using the East African diplomatic approach popular with Nairobi, Uganda and Tanzania – but not Rwanda. Rwanda fights its diplomatic battles with Nigerian-Ethiopian-style bare knuckles.

Secondly, Ethiopia is a richer economic pot. Likewise, South Africa – still the richest African economy, by far, albeit not its biggest any more – enjoys more immunities and gets a pass where Kenya doesn't. These economic and geopolitical advantages pass on to SAA too in the same way they do ET.

The short of it, then, is that Nigeria as a country is so big, rich and powerful it gets an Ebola pass. ET, because it is Ethiopian, gets an Ebola discount. SAA can fully expect to get an Ebola reprieve. What KQ can do here, is claim points for Ebola pragmatism.

The world remains an unfair place. The big boys still get all the breaks.

Mr Onyango-Obbo is Editor of Mail & Guardian AFRICA (mgafrica.com). Twitter:@cobbo3