{UAH} Pojim/WBK: It's Hard To Predict Political Outcomes | The Star

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-191454/its-hard-predict-political-outcomes

It's Hard To Predict Political Outcomes

Back in 2001 or thereabouts, I wrote an opinion column, arguing that Mwai Kibaki should gracefully end his career in politics. My advice was that he should now help usher in a new leadership, which might have a better chance against the invincible monolith of the dominant political party, Kanu, led by the political genius, President Moi.

At that time, the received wisdom was that the outcome of the 2002 presidential election had already been settled. The former leading anti-Moi politician, Raila Odinga, had just led his NDP party into a merger with Kanu, which saw him elected as Kanu secretary general. And that seemed to be the final nail in the coffin of Kibaki's political career.

Insiders knew very well that Moi's long-term plan had revolved around two of his political protégés, both of whom were then 'senior ministers' in his government: Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi. Both these were men who had benefited immensely from Moi's political support over the years, and all the signs pointed to these guys being his chosen heirs. Now with Raila having joined Kanu, the tribal calculus of Moi's political machine spelled doom for Kibaki's chances in 2002, despite his having been a credible runner-up in the 1997 presidential election.

This is how the gameplan was explained to some of us by insiders within the Moi camp: under the 'old constitution' (as we now refer to it) there was the possibility of a non-executive PM being appointed by the President. This position would be reserved for Raila. Then either Musalia would be President Kalonzo's VP; or Kalonzo would be President Musalia's VP: nobody could say for sure, and this was the only thing which remained to be decided. But the greater point was that with the Kalenjin (led, as always back then, by Moi himself); the Kamba (Kalonzo's core political supporters, then as now); the Luos (led, then as now, by Raila); and the Luhya (in whose name Musalia would occupy high office) – with all these top 'big tribes' in one voting basket, what chance did Kibaki have?

The best he could hope for was the approximately 35 per cent of total national votes that Central could give him, as the 'small tribes' would all flock to the winning team once the predetermined voting patterns were made manifest in the months before the election. In this way did Moi hope to perpetuate his decadesold political strategy, which revolved around the isolation and subsequent marginalisation of 'the house of Mumbi' (ie the Kikuyu, Embu and Meru). And no matter how you looked at it, the inevitable conclusion was that Kibaki had nothing but humiliation ahead of him come the 2002 presidential election. But then, as the Scots poet Burns noted: "The best laid plans of mice and men oft go astray."

Nobody has yet been able to explain why it is that Moi turned his back on this carefully constructed succession plan, and ditched the sure-to-win Musalia-Kalonzo-Raila team, to embark on his doomed-to-fail "Uhuru Project" (as it was sneeringly referred to at the time). Yet it was Uhuru that Moi settled on, opening the way for Raila to lead all the disaffected leaders out of Kanu and into the new opposition outfit, the National Rainbow Coalition, which threw its weight behind Kibaki in the 2002 presidential election.

And with that, Moi's often-announced dream that "Kanu will rule for 100 years" came to a crushing end. And all of us who had written off Kibaki (and virtually every notable media commentator had made this same error of judgement) had to eat our words. For my part, I went further than just eating my words, and evolved into a great fan of the Kibaki presidency. So much so that in the last months of Kibaki's tenure, I speculated that Kenya would be best served by allowing Kibaki a third term to allow for a "transitional period for implementing the constitution", which was in reality just a cover for my belief that Kenyans would one day wish Kibaki had remained at State House a little longer.

Hardly anybody took me seriously. But I note that the latest Ipsos-Synovate polls leave no doubt that most Kenyans believe that they were far better off under the Kibaki presidency; which is more or less what I had predicted would happen. So I may have been wrong about Kibaki back in 2001, but I was one of the very few who foresaw the situation we are in now.

The writer comments on topical issues.

It's Hard To Predict Political Outcomes | The Star

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-191454/its-hard-predict-political-outcomes

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