{UAH} Amama Approval Ratings Rise to all Time High

Why the Banyakigezi Hold the Key to Regime Change as NRM Bus Moves Deeper Into Unpredictable but Seemingly Risky Political Waters

By Fred Kamwada-Kamwada

According to casual observations from a random sample gathered from highly regarded political analysts around the country, sacked and now embattled former Ugandan Prime Minister Hon Patrick Amama Mbabazi's approval ratings have risen to an all time high.

If one held an election today, it's highly possible that the sacked premier would beat President Museveni by a bigger vote-margin because he has generated a lot of sympathy from all political quarters in the country due to the majestic way he has handled himself.

He won so many hearts when, immediately after his undignified exit from the premiership, he strode to Parliament and took the back bench with a smile. 

Amama the Punching Bag

Amama has also won so many hearts with the way he has managed to handle the hostile comments from the NRM barking dogs. He has officially turned into a punching bag of sorts for the NRM officials, who have called him names despite keeping a very quiet demeanor.

This week, Senior Presidential Advisor on the media, John Nagenda appeared on national TV calling Mbabazi a very arrogant and self centered man who deserved the sack while NRM Spokesman, Ofwono Opondo has been punching at the former premier with a lot of gusto.

Another senior cadre of the NRM, and former Ugandan Prime Minister Kintu Musoke also appeared on TV to add his anti-Mbabazi venom when he said that he (Mbabazi) had to be sacked because he was trying to outshine everyone.

And at the end of it all, it seems Amama has no friends at all amongst the top hierarchy of the NRM.

The gesture to welcome President Museveni from his visit abroad by the top NRM brass this weekend was interpreted as a feast to celebrate and at the same time thank him for having sacked Amama Mbabazi.

Looking at it from a neutral point of view leaves an impression of a persecuted Mbabazi. On his part, Mbabazi has not made any hate-laden response to his critics. He has maintained a more intellectual posture and attracted a lot of sympathy from even those who had no regard for him.

The Mbabazi Phenomenon

When one looks at the details of why Mbabazi is a hate figure amongst his NRM colleagues, you find no genuine reason.

Why has everyone within his party come out to crucify and pour more misery at the sacked Premier? What did he do to warrant such a backlash?

But more importantly, why is the opposition not as hostile to Mbabazi as his NRM colleagues" Opposition figures like Abdu Katuntu have described Mbabazi as the most intelligent pick from the NRM basket.

Bishop Festo Kivengere the regime changer during Amini tenure

When one digs deep into this Amama hate-phenomenon, s/he will find that most of it is derived from envy for Amama's shining star. Most of his colleagues in the party were not approving of the way he was always appointed from one big position to another and attracting the tag super minister in the process.

They say that the higher you go, the cooler it becomes, but in the case of Amama, the higher he got appointed to bigger jobs the hotter it became for him as more haters piled to write acidic intelligence dossiers about him.

Job Politics at Play

It's a phenomenon that we have always termed as job politics in these pages. It's this job politics that came to define Amama's relationship with his colleagues.

It's unlikely that Mbabazi would have had so many enemies if he had remained in a simple ministerial position and we cannot blame him for having bagged big government positions. We can only blame
President Museveni who kept on appointing him from one big job to another.

He was lucky that President Museveni never listens or responds to hate-laden intelligence reports because thousands of intelligence reports gathered about Amama were all authored in bad spirit and not based on the realities on the ground.

The only principled rivalry Mbabazi has had so far was with Kahinda Otafiire and Prof Gilbert Bukenya with whom they competed for the slot of secretary of NRM at the Namboole delegates' conference.

One could see that Kahinda Otafiire had a more solid argument as to why he was against Mbabazi. He outlined reasons ranging from personalizing the NRM party, where his wife Jacqueline became Chairperson of NRM women's league and his daughter Nina was handling sensitive matters of the NRM delegates' conference.

Other Amama haters like Hon Jim Muhwezi who wanted him crucified for the Temangalo saga did not have a more organized argument either.  Even First Lady Hon Janet Museveni who wanted him to resign due to the Temangalo case couldn't come up with a set of arguments to justify her case.

Fall of the Axe

But this time, a series of allegations related to Amama's building a political power base have convinced the President to sack his man.

The more compelling symbolic political move by some youths to don Amama t-shirts to the Cranes match against Guinea could have convinced Museveni to sack him. But it's not the first time that Ugandans have printed t-shirts of someone they think can challenge Museveni for the Presidency.

When Gen David Tinyefunza was exiled, some youths entered Nambole stadium with placard and t-shirts sympathetic to the cause.

And in any case, is political challenge to Museveni a crime in itself?

Political Barometer

The political barometer in the country is boiling towards some sort of regime change. There is a very big build up in the hearts and minds of most Ugandans.

Ugandans are yearning for change, be it Mbabazi, Gen Sejjusa or anyone else championing that change.

Interestingly it seems that change might come from the Kigezi Sub region. It was the same region which championed regime change schemes against President Idi Amin when Bishop Festo Kivengere came out to champion the cause at a time when there was virtually no hope that the then President could be dethroned.

Today, we see Museveni removing a Mukiga in Amama Mbabazi and replacing him with another Mukiga in Ruhakana Rugunda, which is a sign that he (Museveni) acknowledges the power of that region.

At the same time you see Banyakigezi like Jacqueline Mbabazi,   Bishop Zac Niringiye, Hope Mwesigye, Col Anthony Kyakabale, Col Samson Mande and a host of others pushing for regime change.  

It is no secret that Museveni has great respect for Banyakigezi and that's why he is hesitant to appoint them in ministerial positions. The likes of Hon Henry Banyenzaki were co-opted into Museveni's cabinet because they had started marketing the candidature of the then Vice President Gilbert Bukenya.

At the end of it all, there is a strong possibility that the winds of political change will be determined by the Banyakigezi as the NRM bus strolls into an unknown and risky political future.

 The Author, Fred Kamwada-Kamwada Is a Ugandan Journalist and Political Analyst and Can Be Reached On kamwadafred@yahoo.com

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