{UAH} Why Amama Mbabazi exit is good for Brig Muhoozi

Why Amama Mbabazi exit is good for Brig Muhoozi

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Tuesday, 14 October 2014 23:22

Written by Edris Kiggundu

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Destined: Birg Muhoozi Kainerugaba

The sacking of Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi could have cleared the way for Brig Kainerugaba Muhoozi's future rise to the presidency.

While the commander of the Special Forces Command (SFC), who is also President Museveni's son, has consistently denied interest in politics, the removal of Mbabazi from the unofficial succession queue has left him in a very strong position to succeed his father in 2021.

Moreover, Mbabazi's exit has come as Muhoozi begins to dabble in politics, albeit in a subtle way.

The once powerful Mbabazi, who remains NRM secretary general, drew his strength from being unquestionably loyal and having President Museveni's ear.

He was arguably the second most powerful politician in government, often taking on Museveni's key assignments at home and abroad.

The president rewarded his loyalty and hard work by helping him get elected NRM secretary general in 2005 and 2010, in addition to defending him whenever he encountered political challenges.

It was, therefore, assumed by some observers that Mbabazi would succeed Museveni as NRM chairman and president.

Now Mbabazi's sudden dismissal on September 18, following reports that he was mobilising to take on his boss at the 2015 delegates' conference, has opened the door for other possible successors to Museveni, whose long reign can't go beyond 2021 because of a constitutional age limit. The president, who turned 70 this August, is barred from standing again for the 2021 elections as he will have clocked the mandatory 75 years.

Advantage Muhoozi

While for a long time it was believed that Museveni would be succeeded by one of his bush war comrades, Mbabazi was essentially the only one among them left standing until last month. His fall, therefore, leaves no other 'historical' with a realistic claim to the presidency.

Many would-be successors have either died (like James Wapakhabulo and Eriya Kategaya), joined the opposition (like Kizza Besigye, Augustine Ruzindana and Amanya Mushega) or assumed a low profile within the regime (like Kahinda Otafiire and Ruhakana Rugunda). This is hardly surprising because the longer Museveni has stayed in power, the harder it has become for one of his former comrades to succeed him.

By 2021, when the president, who came to power in 1986, is ineligible to contest, so will most of the 'historicals'.

This reality will automatically shift the balance towards the younger generation of NRM supporters, and none will be better placed than Muhoozi. First, by virtue of being the president's son, he is and will remain closer to the president than any other politician, besides enjoying the Museveni brand awareness built over 40 or so years.

In addition, his current assignment puts him in command of the army's most elite unit, SFC, which given the role the army has continued to play in Uganda's politics under Museveni, is a game-changer. To understand Muhoozi's considerable influence in the army, it must be noted that he heads one of the three commands (Land, Air and Special Forces).

No other presidential hopeful occupies such a strategic place in the army. Besides, with the exception of Gen Katumba Wamala, the Chief of Defence Forces, the current crop of the army leadership comprises mainly young officers, many of them either recruited by Muhoozi himself or closely allied to him.

Mwambutsya Ndebesa, a political historian at Makerere University, believes that the dynamics within the army will play a big role in the Uganda's succession politics, giving Muhoozi an edge.

"The army is the most powerful arm of the regime and has the capacity to hold a veto over who can become the future president," Ndebesa says.

The dynamics of who wields power in the army have changed over the years. In 1986, after Museveni's NRA captured power, the top decision-making organ was the historical high command, which according to the UPDF Act 2005 had six members: Gen Yoweri Museveni, Gen Salim Saleh, Gen David Tinyefuza, Gen Elly Tumwine, Maj Gen Matayo Kyaligonza and Eriya Kategaya (deceased).

Today, the only army officers that remain influential in the army from that group are Museveni and his brother Gen Saleh. Saleh, a former army commander, is a senior presidential advisor on military affairs and handles some of Museveni's most sensitive assignments, including an operation to stimulate commercial farming.

Thus the old guard, both in the army and politics, once held loosely together by the Luweero bush war camaraderie, has since been consigned to the periphery, creating room for the emergence of young Turks. Besides Muhoozi, the latter include army officers such as Maj Gen David Muhoozi (commander, Land Forces), Maj Gen Wilson Mbadi (Joint Chief of Staff), Brig Leo Kyanda (Chief of Staff, Land Forces) and politicians such as Frank Tumwebaze, Richard Todwong, Rose Namayanja and Justine Lumumba.

This group is unlikely to be as hostile to Brig Muhoozi as the 'historicals' are because they have no claim to the bush war, and they are of the same age group. In fact, one of the factors that led to Museveni falling out with the 'historicals' was his embracing of younger supporters.

The flight of Gen David Sejusa early last year, the removal of Gen Aronda Nyakairima as CDF earlier this year, and the sacking of Mbabazi last month are all connected in one way or another to the perceived rise of Muhoozi.

Before he fled to Britain, Gen Sejusa, who was then coordinator of intelligence, wrote a missive claiming that there was a plot to kill army officers and senior government officials believed to be opposed to a future Muhoozi presidency. He named Mbabazi and Nyakairima, among others.

As the young Turks assume strategic positions in the military and politics, Brig Muhoozi has been quietly cultivating his political skills. Former Vice President Prof Gilbert Bukenya recently told Sunday Vision that Muhoozi had approached him and tried to persuade him to return to the NRM fold.

It was not clear whether he was acting upon his father's instructions, but what is undisputed is that by so doing, he dabbled in partisan politics contrary to the law. Only last week, one of Muhoozi's blue-eyed army officers, Brig Kyanda, delivered a message in Muhoozi's name to the Uganda Cranes before they played Togo on October 11.

Perhaps more curiously, some youths calling themselves Why Not Youth Pressure Group (WNPG) have emerged, with their raison d'être being to campaign for Muhoozi to become president in 2021. On Friday, October 17, WNPG will hold its maiden seminar at Makerere University and President Museveni is expected to attend as chief guest while Brig Muhoozi will deliver a paper on "The role of the youths in crime prevention and the fight against terror."

While, officially, the seminar is meant to discuss economic challenges facing the youths, it also offers an opportunity for Muhoozi to ingratiate with the youths who would have a big say if he were to to stand for president in 2021.

Because he can undertake activities such as these, which no other army officer can without raising eyebrows, Muhoozi is at an advantage. Moreover, with time, there seems to be a growing feeling, especially among young NRM supporters, that there is nothing wrong with Muhoozi replacing his father, once he is elected.

Muhammad Nsereko, the Kampala Central MP, said as much in August, sparking furious debate.

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H.OGWAPITI
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---Theodore Roosevelt

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