{UAH} My predictions for the Museveni succession – in 2021, of course - Comment - www.theeastafrican.co.ke
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My predictions for the Museveni succession – in 2021, of course - Comment
Political prediction are not my thing. But when a prediction is easy and the chances of being proven wrong are slim, it becomes hard to resist the temptation of playing Nostradamus. So here we go:
After President Yoweri Museveni emerged as the sole bull in the NRM kraal in the ruling party's mid December delegates' conference, while the opposition parties were tearing themselves apart with internal rivalries they claim unconvincingly to be healthy, it was a foregone conclusion that "the old man with the hat" will retain his job in State House come elections in February 2016.
That is not a prediction. My prediction is that immediately after the elections, an unprecedented competition for the party's leadership will kick off.
It has hitherto been considered bad manners, even politically risky, to exhibit ambitions of taking over the ruling party because it amounts to overthrowing Museveni, even if democratically. But since the man himself has stated unequivocally before that he will not seek a constitutional amendment to remove the age limit for the presidency, it can be assumed that he is going for his final term in office and another Ugandan must necessarily take over come 2021.
There will be an obvious push for a youthful candidate on the argument that 70 per cent of the country's population are aged below thirty. The problem with finding a youthful candidate is that there are so far no known young men and women who can impress.
There is nothing original about the prominent youthful politicians in NRM as their only claim to fame is fierce but opportunistic loyalty to Museveni the man, and readiness to attack his perceived or real rivals.
What made Museveni stand out in his youth was being his own man, opposing the status quo from a very early age and going ahead to put his life on the line for two decades in armed resistance to dictatorships. His colleagues, who are known in Uganda as "Historicals," did the same.
None of today's youthful NRM politicians has exhibited any character besides praising the old man with the hat. So succession in the NRM could end up as a battle of the generations. But the youth may lose out in the market of public support because they suffer the same problem facing the opposition parties – failing to articulate any alternative to tackling the country's problems.
NRM's openly stated ambition is to become Uganda's CCM or ANC – one that retains power perpetually and only changes the person at its top, who is also the national president. Don't be surprised if the ex-premier/outgoing SG Amama Mbabazi remains a steadfast party member and plays along with everybody else to strengthen the party so that he can take another shot at its leadership. In 2021, Amama will be 72 years of age, within the limit to contest for the presidency.
Even then, there is a possibility of separating the party chairmanship from presidential candidature as is already the case with the opposition FDC, and settling for one of those posts is a likely compromise.
And Museveni's role in all this? He was reported as saying that Mbabazi is Ok but for "those girls near him," meaning his wife and sister-in-law. The old man with the hat could still back a disciplined and contrite Mbabazi as someone he can rely on to protect his interests as he enters the sunset of his political and natural life.
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