{UAH} Pojim/WBK: Finally somebody is agreeing with me!!! It’s campaign poll season again, and guess who’s in the lead? - Comment - www.theeastafrican.co.ke

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/OpEd/comment/It-s-campaign-poll-season-again--and-guess-who-s-in-the-lead/-/434750/2592456/-/item/1/-/5efo0o/-/index.html

It is opinion poll season in Uganda again, as the country inches closer to the next presidential and General Election.

For potential candidates, their supporters, and others with an interest in figuring out what the future may bring, it's time to hire those with the right skills to sniff the political air for them.

The latest poll, whose results were released last Monday, was by French market research company Ipsos. Commissioned by Daily Monitor the poll showed that if those who were interviewed had been voting during the week, President Yoweri Museveni would have scooped 57 per cent of the popular vote.

This is several percentage points fewer than what he got last time round, but still respectable and many miles ahead of the candidate who would have come second, his arch-nemesis and former personal physician, retired colonel, Dr Kizza Besigye.

Amama Mbabazi, embattled former prime minister and secretary-general of the ruling party, the National Resistance Movement, came in third, with a miserly 6 per cent.

For pundits who have been touting Mbabazi as the greatest threat to Museveni's electoral fortunes were he to contest for the presidency, the news gives pause for thought. As for other possible contestants, several big names among them, they were basically not on the radar of the pollster's respondents.

President Museveni's spokespersons have reacted as they always do when the results are to their liking: They are beating their chests. Polls being polls, the next one may not be as exciting, especially if people get asked about the government's record on service delivery.

For the opposition, the poll has thrown a cat among the pigeons. As is usually the case with politicians when the results are not to their liking, many chose the easy option: They attacked the messenger, questioning the professionalism of the pollster. Some went as far as accusing pollsters of "eating" bribes or even asking: "If that research was genuine, how come I was not interviewed?"

Only a minority swallowed the bitter medicine and accepted the results as reflecting the reality on the ground. But, like their quarrelsome counterparts, they did not take the next step and scrutinise the results for the detailed messages that, if taken as lessons, may help them begin to address problems and weaknesses that prevent members of the public from taking them seriously as governments or presidents in waiting.

There are many issues facing Uganda's opposition parties that jump out at anyone who happens to read the Ugandan newspapers.

There are two millstones around their collective necks: Disunity and bickering, and the constant articulation of their desire to get rid of' Museveni and his dictatorship (Museveni agende) without reassuring a public that remains fearful of disorder, that they have a carefully thought-out and coherent post-Museveni agenda, not merely for maintaining stability, but also for making life better for everybody.

To be fair, they do have manifestos in which they outline their individual agendas. But who, besides their manifesto teams and possibly some researchers, really reads party manifestos? Certainly not the apparently contented rural folk, most of whom, according to the Ipsos poll, believe that Uganda does not need a new president (Museveni abeewo). The required strategy, it seems, is to tell voters about their plans.

This, I have heard some doing. However, for some reason, the public seems not to be listening. Or may be they don't understand or believe what they are being told. Whatever the case may be, there is a lot to do in addition to haranguing Museveni and making him the issue.

And lest we forget, there is the small matter of opposition elements enthusiastically embracing whoever crosses from the Museveni camp and claims to be a fighter for freedom or a champion of democracy.

It may be odd to criticise opposition parties for their internal disunity and also attack them for trying to build a broad front. However, whenever someone like Mbabazi who only recently was persecuting opposition activists or steering through parliament laws that made life difficult for opposition parties suddenly becomes a darling of opposition figures, just because he is no longer in the NRM, the public begin to wonder what is going on.

Casual observers will ask themselves whether those who oppose Museveni and want him to leave are motivated by values and principles or whether they are merely political opportunists driven by personal ambition.

Granted, a drowning man will hold on to a serpent. And as some argue, President Museveni is no paragon of principled behaviour when it comes to courting political opponents he may wish to win over to his side. It has, they add, been good for political stability.

Indeed. And this is where voters are guilty of double standards. While they see Museveni's manoeuvres as good for the country, not so the courtship among his opponents, which they see as potentially dangerous. What if they fight over power after winning?

Frederick Golooba-Mutebi is a Kampala- and Kigali-based researcher and writer on politics and public affairs. E-mail: fgmutebi@yahoo.com

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