{UAH} Pojim/WBK: AU moves on as Jubilee partners start falling out - Comment - www.theeastafrican.co.ke
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AU moves on as Jubilee partners start falling out - Comment
By L. Muthoni Wanyeki
Posted Saturday, February 7 2015 at 18:27
Going by the Kenyan media alone, we would be forgiven for concluding the recent African Union's Summit of Heads of States and Government was entirely focused on the African Court. And the government of Kenya's progress with its continued onslaught against the International Criminal Court.
In actuality, the big picture, the core concerns and interests of the summit had little to do with Kenya. The thematic focus had to do with African women's rights, about which a big, fat nothing was reported by the Kenyan media.
The biggest agenda item had to do with financing of the AU so as to ensure its long-term independence from external financing.
The critical countries under discussion were, first, Nigeria and how best to address Boko Haram. And, second, South Sudan and how best to shepherd parties to the conflict to transitional power-sharing.
The adoption of Agenda 2063, the AU's agenda for the next 50 years, was also a major point of discussion at the Summit. Finally, the critical issue under discussion was Ebola.
Only then — and only as follow-up to previous decisions — did the African Court and implementing its new criminal jurisdiction come up.
It is important to realise the AU has moved on from Kenya. It has done what it could regarding support for the GoK's position before the Assembly of State Parties of the ICC. Its resolutions on the matter hold. But its member states are in the main, to put it mildly, now weary of the GoK's demands. The charges against Uhuru Kenyatta have been withdrawn. What more should the AU do?
The GoK misread the mood. As did the coterie of so-called elders and parliamentarians who turned up to continue the good fight. A side event called by the host of Jubilant supporters present, including its "governmental-non-governmental organisations" (GONGOs) and pseudo-intellectuals, was reportedly ill-attended by anybody except themselves.
And reportedly degenerated into an internal Jubilant battle, with the United Republican Party side warning of dire consequences should the National Alliance side not do for William Ruto what it apparently did for Kenyatta.
What is of interest is not just the continued misuse of public funding but the potential consequences of a falling out between URP and TNA. Nobody who has followed the two cases can seriously expect the same outcome for the Ruto case as for the Kenyatta case.
The evidence-base (largely the "linkage" witness base) is different. If the case is concluded in Ruto's favour, it is likely to be on the strength of the defence as opposed to the prosecution. In court. Not in diplomatic or political manoeuvring.
So two questions arise: First, how far is URP prepared to go in pressuring TNA for continued diplomatic and political investments in seeking an unrealistic outcome? Second, how far is TNA prepared to go in giving in to this URP pressure?
More importantly, what can we all expect on the ground as this continues? It is worrying.
L. Muthoni Wanyeki is Amnesty International's regional director for East Africa.
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