{UAH} JAPAN, A MIDDLE EASTERN POWER?

JAPAN, A MIDDLE EASTERN POWER?

March 5, 2015 Ethan Rosen 0 Comments

Between January 25 and January 30, videos emerged of Haruna Yukawa, a wannabe fighter, and of Kenji Goto, a veteran war reporter, being killed by the Islamic State group. These beheadings followed shortly after Shinzo Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister, promised $200 million in aid to the anti-ISIS coalition during a tour of the Middle East. After the killings, Mr. Abe vowed "to make the terrorists pay the price." The two men were the first Japanese citizens to be killed by the Islamic State group, and their deaths showcase the changing role that Japan will play in the Middle East over the coming decade.

While Japanese society was fairly unanimous in its horror and disgust toward the brutality shown by the Islamic State, the country was split on what was next for Japan. Mr. Abe and his followers predictably tried to build support for the upcoming vote to remove the pacifist clauses from Japan's constitution, arguing that the beheadings showed the need for Japan to be more active in a dangerous and chaotic world. Others saw the killings as vindication of Japan's post-war military isolation, arguing that the beheadings showed the dangers of meddling in foreign conflicts. It is difficult to predict just how this incident will affect the campaign to revise the constitution — that much really depends on how long the 'rally around the flag' effect lasts for Mr. Abe— but it is clear that the deaths of Mr. Goto and Mr. Yukawa will play a central role in that debate.

Mr. Abe followed the beheadings by announcing his intentions to develop a framework for Japanese forces to be able to rescue endangered Japanese citizens around the globe. This would inevitably mean that Japan would need to become involved in intelligence gathering and commando raids in the Middle East, the difficulty of which are underscored by the United States' failed attempt to rescue the then-hostage (now deceased) journalist James Foley. The United States' engagement in the region, intelligence gathering, and military reach is far greater than anything that Japan could possibly reach. Comments like this by Mr. Abe showcase a vision where Japan plays a far greater role in upholding the international order than it does today.

Mr. Abe is beginning to make an argument that Japan needs to be involved in the wider world, and that the protections that allowed Japan to prosper post-war may no longer hold up in the 21st century. Mr. Abe is clearly referencing the rise of China and the perceived loss of American support – but there is another case that Mr. Abe is beginning to make.

Since the end of the Second World War, the United States has more or less served as the protector of Saudi Arabia's oil fields. By protecting oil flows in the Persian Gulf, the United States has been the primary guarenteer of the free transit of crude, and therefore of global economic stability. Rising American energy independence and deteriorating US-Saudi relations make this less likely to continue into the long-term future. As the United States continues to explore shale gas and various alternative energy programs, interest in Saudi security is likely to wane.

The United States will not disengage from the region quickly — the reintroduction of American ground forces in Iraq shows that the United States is departing at a glacial pace — but between the shale revolution and growing discontentment with Saudi foreign policy (on top of what appears to be a warming with Iran), the United States is falling out of its traditional role as protector of the free flow of gulf oil.

This trend will only accelerate if the 28 redacted pages of the 9/11 Commission Report are declassified after growing calls to release them. Senator Bob Graham (D-FL), a co-chair of the report who recently called for these pages to be declassified, summarized them by saying that "The 28 pages primarily relate to who financed 9/11 and they point a very strong finger at Saudi Arabia as being the principal financier." Other legislators who have read the unredacted report have made similar claims.

Saudi Arabia may soon go the way of Pakistan in US foreign policy— at various points Pakistan has been an indispensable ally, needed to defeat the Soviets in Afghanistan and needed to defeat al Qaeda. The United States was willing to forgive some level of Pakistani state links to terrorism, but the relationship has not recovered from the revelations that Pakistan was sheltering Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. Relations with Saudi Arabia are slowly heading in the same direction.

There are few countries who will have a bigger problem with this then Japan. With all of Japan's 48 nuclear plants still offline, Japan is now nearly entirely dependent on fossil fuels to meet its energy imports. Unfortunately for Japan, 80% of its oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving Japan completely dependent on gulf security. With the United States backing away from its role as security guarenteer, Mr. Abe is hoping to step in and pre-empt the Chinese. Japan is hoping to spend as much as $2.5billion on aid to the region, and Mr. Abe is laying the groundwork for military assistance to the region. In a recent parliamentary session, Mr. Abe clarified thatunder his administration's interpretation of Japan's pacifist constitution, Japanese Self-Defense Force Minesweeping ships may be used to clear potential blockages in the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Abe is pushing for Japan to play a larger role in the global geopolitical order, and a Japanese presence in the Middle East must be a big part of that push.

In perhaps a sign of the debate to come, Komeito, the ruling LDP's junior coalition partner, dissents from Mr. Abe's statements on minesweeping the Strait of Hormuz, saying that harm to Japan's economy is not enough to merit the constitutional use of military force. Mr. Abe is in for a long fight, Japan is in for a longer one.

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Gwokto La'Kitgum

"Even a small dog can piss on a tall Building", Jim Hightower

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