{UAH} Mbabazi courts Besigye, Muntu

Mbabazi courts Besigye, Muntu

Written by Sadab Kitatta Kaaya

Last Updated: 09 March 2015

Mbabazi has reached out to several opposition leaders for support

2016: Amama tells opposition he can defeat Museveni 

In private talks over the last five months, sacked prime minister John Patrick Amama Mbabazi has asked several opposition leaders to embrace him as their joint candidate, The Observer today confirms.

Mbabazi, insider sources familiar with the talks say, is telling opposition leaders that he has more name recognition in the country and he is better-placed to defeat Museveni in 2016. Mbabazi was sacked as prime minister last September and removed as NRM secretary general in December.

But The Observer now understands that as early as November, he had started  contracting political activists at Makerere University, civil society groups and opposition politicians. The Observer understands that by the time he flew to London late last month, Mbabazi had met all opposition political party heads except FDC President Mugisha Muntu.

According to sources, Mbabazi meets his guests separately either at his private office at Crested towers or at his palatial residence in Kololo.  In the meetings, Mbabazi does not allow guests to carry any electronic gadgets such as mobile phones and iPads – apparently for fear that conversations might be stealthily taped or tapped.

Mbabazi uses the meetings to discuss the prospects of his 2016 president bid.

"He wants the opposition to support his presidential bid because he believes that he is more advantaged to take on Museveni," a member of an opposition party's management team said on Friday.

According to several sources, Mbabazi's claim to have "advantages" over them has surprised the opposition leaders. If he has such obvious advantages, they wonder, why he has not publicly declared his ambition to unseat Museveni. Unshaken, Mbabazi reportedly retorts that despite his silence, his name and ambition are well known across Uganda.

Several sources told us Mbabazi tells his guests that if the opposition does not find him fitting, he is ready to support any candidate that they will choose although he maintains that he is better suited to take on Museveni.

Last month, a security source intimated to The Observer that Mbabazi was persuading the opposition to back him as its joint presidential candidate. This security source further claimed that intelligence information so far gathered by government indicates that the former premier had also offered to fund opposition candidates for Parliament and local government positions.

PRESIDENCY

Although Mbabazi has not met Muntu, The Observer has learnt that he has met several of Muntu's fellow leaders. The party, under the auspices of its former president, Dr Kizza Besigye, has set up a loose forum for its leaders to discuss issues related to the 2016 elections, especially Mbabazi's interest.

Muntu is a member of the forum that also comprises of all FDC MPs and Ingrid Turinawe, the party's women's league leader. The leaders are split in different working groups that were assigned different tasks. One working group has Rukiga MP Jack Sabiiti, Kasese woman MP Winfred Kiiza and Kumi MP Patrick Amuriat Oboi. This was tasked to meet a number of politicians and influential figures, including Mbabazi.

The forum received this working group's report during its weekly meeting last Thursday at Amuriat's residence at Kiwatule, a Kampala suburb.

The Leader of opposition in Parliament (LOP) Wafula Oguttu is among the people that Mbabazi first met late last year. According to sources close to Oguttu, his view is that the opposition should work with Mbabazi but they should not lie down for him to come and lead.

PROJECT DENIED

By meeting the opposition chiefs separately, Mbabazi wanted to keep details of their meetings out of the public domain but that is proving to be difficult. In part, this is because of the excitement the prospect of a battle between Mbabazi and Museveni has created in the opposition.

Many politicians believe Mbabazi is the biggest 'thing' to happen to the anti-Museveni movement since Kizza Besigye in 1999. What, however, makes the information even more credible are the denials of information that The Observer has verified impeccably.

Most politicians last week said they had never met Mbabazi and feigned ignorance of what is becoming the Mbabazi project.

"He has met most of them only that they will not mention it. But effects of his meetings are now visible because even those that were previously opposed to him have of recent started calling him a good man whom they can work with," one opposition activist told us.

Mbabazi (C) meeting the 'NRM Poor Youth' at his home recently

Speaking by telephone on March 6, DP president Norbert Mao denied meeting Mbabazi but said that he was aware that some of his colleagues met Museveni's former confidant.

"Whoever is looking at Mbabazi as a prospective candidate is stupid, Mbabazi belongs to NRM and it has a sole presidential candidate and that's Museveni; it would be nonsensical of me to support him [Mbabazi]," Mao said.

"If he wants our support, he should first start by providing leadership for himself, then he can think of leading others. He has a choice to leave NRM but has not exercised that right," Mao added.

In a separate interview, former Kampala assistant bishop-turned-political-activist Zac Niringiye urged Mbabazi to end the private talks and make them open.

"Honestly, Mbabazi needs to work with the rest of us; he needs to be part of a united Ugandan front that seeks a democratic future and a peaceful transition," Bishop Niringiye said.

"The private talks must come out in the open; they must now know who is talking to who and what are they talking about. The time for continuing with private talks has passed, let there be structured talks."

Like Mao, Niringiye also argued that it is time for Mbabazi to publicly declare whether he is staying in NRM or will work directly against the establishment.

After the NRM MPs adopted the Museveni sole candidacy resolution at their retreat last year, the party mounted several campaigns that diminished Mbabazi's influence in the party and his prospects of running against Museveni internally.

Mbabazi himself has since remained silent, though his family and associates, such as his wife Jacqueline, and sister-in-law Hope Mwesigye, have ensured that his message reaches far and wide.

SKEPTICAL

On Friday, Besigye sounded skeptical about Mbabazi's efforts to win next year's elections. Besigye confirmed to The Observer that the Mbabazi meetings were going on although he (Besigye) had not got directly involved.

"The projects I am politically involved in are all targeting the struggle for free and fair elections before considering the kind of participation in that election," Besigye said.

"I think it is wrong to prepare to participate in a rigged election. Any election held under the current system is inherently flawed and I have made my position abundantly clear that I will not be part of that flawed election," he added.

Besigye is part of the civil society-led campaign for free and fair elections. He said he has committed all his efforts, resources and time to that cause.

"I am convinced that [the reforms] will not come on a silver platter because they are being handled by a parliament that came through a stolen election which would not create an environment that stops stolen elections," Besigye said.

In order to force through the reforms, Besigye argued, all efforts opposed to Museveni's system need to focus on pushing for free and fair elections.

"If we have free and fair elections, even without any political alliances, there would be change, because nobody can get elected unless you have 50-plus votes," Besigye said.

"If there is need for an alliance, it can be after the elections. Allying for candidates is not the most critical matter at the moment but free and fair elections," he added.

Besigye said he would be available to work with Mbabazi and all the other forces that have recently fallen out with the government if they embrace the push for electoral reforms.

NOT SCARED

The minister for the Presidency, Frank Tubwebaze, in a Saturday interview, said that the government could not be worried about the alliance that Mbabazi is seeking with the opposition.

"But he has repeatedly said that he is still part of the NRM and will abide by the rules [of NRM]," Tumwebaze said. "Be it Mbababzi or anybody with presidential ambitions, I think the wiser move for them would be to court NRM other than running to the opposition because NRM still enjoys popular support."

Tumwebaze also argues that, like previous efforts by the opposition to front joint candidates, a new alliance is bound to fail.  Mbabazi, though, might disagree. He was recently quoted as saying that he only fights wars he will win.

sadabkk@observer.ug

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"When a man is stung by a bee, he doesn't set off to destroy all beehives"

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