{UAH} Pojim/WBK: What Will Ruto Do About This Purge ? | The Star

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/what-will-ruto-do-about-purge

What Will Ruto Do About This Purge ?

In political commentary, you can address the more-deeply-significant long-term issues (Will the Standard Gauge Railway really prove to be a wise investment, or will it be a white elephant? Will the costs of electricity and fuel continue on a downward trend? Do Kenyan children in poor rural villages, who walk long distances to school on bare feet, really need individual laptops? etc)

However, most readers actually find this kind of commentary rather boring, even though these issues are what will ultimately have the greatest impact on their lives.

So, alternatively, you can focus on the juicy short-term twists and turns of political life. And these often revolve around just three or four figures with 'national stature'.

Right now, for example, the most salient question is not whether President Uhuru Kenyatta will succeed in fighting corruption, but rather, 'What will Ruto do now?'

For just two years into the Jubilee coalition government, of which he was supposedly an equal partner, Deputy President William Ruto finds that the ranks of "his side" of the coalition have been decimated by the sweeping anti-corruption agenda fronted by Uhuru.

And though all these prominent men and women who were sent packing have expressed confidence that they will be found innocent once investigations are complete, we cannot really know at this point how it will all turn out.

At best, an impression has temporarily been created that Ruto nominated a bunch of crooks to high office – for if not, then why are so many of them on the "List of Shame", with such specific accusations made against them?

In the worst case scenario, we may yet see some (or even most) of Ruto's nominees judged to be "unfit for public office". Some may even end up in in the dock. And, Kenyan politics being what it is, such an outcome would inevitably be seen as a setback for the "political godfather" of the accused - a slap in the face, if not a kick in the teeth.

So, the question recurs: 'What will Ruto do now?'

Well, first we should remember that such stunning reversals are by no means unusual for the Number Two man in the Kenyan political hierarchy. Indeed, others have suffered much worse. And the cleverest and most patient politicians have always found a way round such obstacles.

When in 1988, Mwai Kibaki was dropped as VP to the long-serving President Daniel Moi, many thought this was the end for Kibaki. Well, it took him about 15 years to rise above his misfortune, but true enough, in 2002, he was sworn in as president – the very thing his 'demotion' to Minister of Health was intended to prevent.

And more recently, Raila Odinga in 2002, was generally considered to have been taken for a ride by the same Mwai Kibaki, when as the new president, Kibaki did not appoint him Prime Minister (a position which was to have been created, specifically for Raila, under the old constitution).

Well, in Raila's case it took just five years, for him to emerge as a serious challenger to Kibaki in the very next presidential election. And after the dust settled on the 2008 post-election violence, Raila ended up getting the very position that Kibaki had sought to deny him – and it was even better, as this was a substantive Premiership, created through constitutional amendments.

But Ruto faces a rather different situation from that which Kibaki or Raila did, in the days when they too faced the chilly winds of adversity.

When Moi dropped Kibaki as VP (and Minister of Home Affairs) and relegated him to the Health Ministry, this was seen by Kibaki's Central Kenya heartland as a blow to the entire "Gema community". And it only intensified the bitterness that region felt towards Moi.

Likewise, when Raila was denied the promised Premiership, his 'Luo Nyanza' bedrock supporters saw this as proof that the Kikuyu leadership, having safely harvested the Luo votes in the just-concluded election, was now willing to revive the historical political rivalry between Luo and Kikuyu. And the Luos were prompt in reclaiming their position at the very front-line of resistance to alleged Kikuyu hegemony, vowing that the mistake of 2002, would never be repeated.

In short, what happened in response to their perceived humiliation was that both Kibaki (in 1988) and Raila (in 2003) emerged stronger than ever.

Somehow that does not seem to be the case with Ruto. At least not yet.

So, again the question recurs: What will Ruto do now?

What Will Ruto Do About This Purge ? | The Star

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/what-will-ruto-do-about-purge

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