{UAH} BURUNDI PROTESTS - LESSONS FOR ANTI-MUSEVENISM UGANDANS
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BURUNDI PROTESTS - LESSONS FOR ANTI-MUSEVENISM UGANDANS
Ruling party
CNDD-FDD was formed in 1994 following the assassination by the Tutsi dominated army of the first Hutu President Ndadaye. It was led by Leonard Nyangoma and drew its political leadership from Hutu intellectuals from mostly the southern Province of Bururi. However its fighters were drawn from different parts of the whole country and had its bases in the refugee camps in Tanzania. By 2001, the rebel outfit boosted of about 25,000 fighters under the leadership of Bosco Ndayikengurukiye. In October 2001 the little known Peter Nkurunziza the current President split the rebel outfit taking with him about 90% of the rebel fighters leaving the rest to his rival Bosco Ndayikengurukiye who signed a truce with the government. In December 2002, Nkurunziza also signed a ceasefire with government. These ceasefires gave way to the Arusha Peace Agreement that stipulated a power sharing agreement between majority Hutus who are 86% and Tutsis being 14% of the total population. Under the arrangement, the National Assembly was to be comprised of 60% Hutus and 40% Tutsi, the Senate was to be 50/50 and the army was also to be shared at 50/50.
In 2005 a constitutional referendumAPPROVED
a new constitution by 92% votes but the Tutsi dominated parties argued that the new constitutions did not give Tutsi enough guarantees. The CNDD-FDD registered as a political party and won parliamentary elections with 80% votes. The following month Peter Nkurunziza was voted by the National Assembly as President unopposed for a five year term. His CNDD-FDD allied with the Tutsi dominated parties. In 2007 the CNDD-FDD National Chairman Husein Rajab was deposed at the party congress and thereafter arrested on allegations of treason before being convicted and sentenced to 13 years imprisonment. This is similar to what happened to Museveni's former Secretary General and Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi. In 2010 Nkurunziza won the general election that were boycotted by the mainstream opposition parties. In April 2014 he attempted without success to amend the constitution for a third term but missed it by one vote. In the same futile move he attempted to amend the constitution to replace the two Vice Presidents (one Tutsi and the other Hutu) with a Prime Minister - a move that would have undermined the power balance. Despite the above setbacks, he went ahead to scheme for a third term among which he was training and arming his party youths commonly known as Imberakuri (those who see far) which is the equivalency of Museveni's Crime Preventers. A top UN official who authored a report about this arming of the youth was expelled from the country.
Following the failed constitutional amendments the following developments took place:
- The Minister of Internal Affairs publicly stated thus: "My advice to politicians planning to vie for the presidency is to prepare to knowing that they will contest against the current President." On 21st March 2014 both the CNDD-FDD and the Presidency spokesmen announced that is was only the party congress that was empowered to nominate a presidential candidate.He was simply hoodwinking Burundians while buying time the same way Museveni is hoodwinking Ugandans.
- In January 2015 CNDD-FDD Senator Richard Nimbashe gave a press release opposing Nkurunziza's third term bid and went further to state that the same view is held by many party members. He was immediately expelled from the party, senate and his position at the Land Commission (CNTB).
- On 13th February 2014 the National Intelligence Service (SNR) issued a Memo warning the President against attempt to seek a third term. It advised him to cede power at the end of his second term for the good of himself, his family and the party. Instead, the Director of SNR Gen Godfroid Niyombare was dismissed from service.
- On 1st March 2015 former CNDD-FDD national Chairman escaped from the main prison after serving for 8 of the 13 years. He later told a foreign radio station that he had been assisted by top government officials and some fighters who were in the bush. He claimed that he had supporters in all government institutions.
- On 6th March 2015 the Catholic Bishop of Bujumbura Evariste Ngoyegoye preached against the 3rd term thus: "After analysis of the Arusha Peace Agreement and the constitution, by questioning our hearts as citizens who love their country and as shepherds of the church, we say that Burundians have agreed that the person elected to lead Burundi can not go beyond two terms of five years each". The statement sent shock waves throughout the country given Burundi's religious structure where 62% are Catholic, 6% Anglican and the remaining being shared by different smaller christian denominations and a significant number of Muslims. Right from the inception of the country's violent history, the Catholic church was accused of being a "church of silence" for its liberal stand. The Bishop declared nine days of prayers for peace and transparency in the elections.
- On 11th March 2015 CNDD-FDD Chairman Pascal Nyabenda told the BBC that opinions polls had indicated that CNDD-FDD supporters, the Bagumyaibanga (those who keep a secret) want President Nkurunziza to seek reelection. Immediately after, the party Spokesman stated that there had not been aSURVEY for such opinion polls and that the party had other people who could stand for the presidency.
- On 14th March 2015 the CNDD-FDD Council of Elders which is the highest body of the party met in the presence of President Nkurunziza and overwhelmingly rejected his third term bid.
- On 23rd March 2015 a statement signed by 17 members of the CNDD-FDD top executive body urged Nkurunziza not to seek a third term. Among them were the Spokesmen for both the party and the presidency. Two days later ten of the seventeen dissenters were sacked from the party and their positions. The statement from the Presidency accused them of conspiracy to destabilise the party and the country. This is what happened with the likes of MP Ssekikubo and group and all others suspected of being pro-Mbabazi.
- The Imbonerakure - a paramilitary and armed youth wing of CNDD-FDD has been at the forefront of the push for third term for President Nkurunziza throughout the country. Their equivalency in Uganda is the Crime Preventers and patriotic clubs members whom the Police is providing with paramilitary skills in exchange for supporting Museveni's sole candidature.
- On 26th April 2015 the CNDD-FDD congress nominated Nkurunziza as the party's flag bearer. The following day 27th April, protesters opposed to his third term took to the streets of the city's suburbs. The general elections are scheduled for May 26th 2015 while the Presidential elections are scheduled for June 26th 2015. Just as is the case with Museveni,separating the two elections is designed to give the incumbent an added advantage over other contenders.
- The Constitutional Court quashed the objection to his reelection by upholding that he was eligible for reelection. The Vice President of the constitutional court Justice Slyvere Nimpagaritse who was one of the 7 man panel that determined the petition fled to Rwanda citing that the government had coerced the Justices
with death threats.
- Immediately after the court's pronouncement, President Nkurunziza registered as a Presidential candidate seeking another term in the upcoming June 2015 Presidential elections.
President Nkurunziza's legacy
Nkurunziza inherited an ethically divided country. Through a coalition with Tutsi party UPRONA, he managed to contain the ethnic divide. The Arusha Peace Agreement was an institutional arrangement that created a power sharing agreement between the elites of the two ethnic groups. This coalition of Tutsi/CNDD-FDD fell apart following attempts to tamper with the constitution in 2014. His reign brought relative peace in the country, he got closer to the common man through community service and he is a singer a choir member in one of the bornAGAIN churches, allowed a vibrant press though with stringent conditions and persecution of individual journalists, introduced free education and antenatal and medical services, promoted agricultural and veterinary services, promoted sports (being a sportsman by profession), facilitated the building of small scale factories, made strides in road construction, attracted foreign aid and investment, and he won several international prizes. He created an environment for freedom of association, expression and assembly though with some degree of repression and in some instances grave consequences. He initiated a land redistribution scheme that has generated alot of controversy more especially among the Tutsi who had grabbed land when the Hutus fled the country decades ago. He has been dragging his feet over constituting a Truth and Reconciliation Commission (CVR) simply because of his alliance with the Tutsi who are the major culprits in the country's violent history. During 2010 campaigns he promised to build dams to improve on the country's energy needs but he has not done anything so far to address the endemic problem of rampant power cuts and its rising tariffs. The land reform scheme (CNTB) is seen as a victor/vanquished based and viewed with suspicion more especially by the Tutsi. Burundi has a high population density and very limited natural resources thus most of the population remain economically suppressed and resign themselves to subsistence agricultural farming. With baiting poverty and poor health services, surviving is the norm and living is a privilege. Save for Bujumbura the capital, CNDD-FDD enjoys an organised political force in the rest of the country such that even without ballot stuffing and intimidation, it can win an election. CNDD- FDD manages a barrage of satellite political parties that legitimise its victory in case of a boycott by major political parties.
Opposition and civil society
- Leonard Nyangoma the founding father of CNDD-FDD split from the party in the late 1990sdue to to ethnicity being a hardliner Hutu, but retains its remnants under CNDD which is dominant in Bururi which is the equivalence of Ankole region in Uganda. It is in Bururi where the Hima, Tutsi and Hutu are equally strong. Unlike Rwanda, in Burundi they have Himas as an ethnic class more privileged than Tutsi. Since the 2010 elections, Nyangoma remains in exile.Burundi society is subdivided into four categories i.e Abaganwa, Abatutsi, Abahima, Abahutu and abatwa. The Baganwa were the rulers during the days of the monarchy, the Tutsi and the Hima are two distinct groups each with separate clans and specific roles in the kingdom. The Batwa were the makers of pottery. Unlike in Rwanda, in Burundi Hutus helped run the kingdom; they were the closest advisors to the king and servants at the court (serving at the court was an honour). Tutsi were herders who had no role at the royal court while Himas were very prevalent at the royal court because they had other imprtant functions among them herders of the kingdom's sacred bulls. After the abolition of the monarchy in Burundi, the Hima though continue to be identified as such, they are commonly classified as Tutsi. Therefore the meanings of Tutsi and Hutu in Burundi is different from the meaning of the same in Rwanda.
- Following the genocide against Burundi Hutus in 1972, many Hutus fled to DRC and Tanzania. In 1980 the Hutus in refugee camps in Tanzania formed the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People (PALIPEHUTU). It was founded by Remmy Gahutu who later died mysteriously. In 1985 it established its armed wing that came to be known as PALIPEHUTU-FNL. In 1990 a splinter political group formed FROLINA. In 1991 the armed wing, PALIPEHUTU-FNL led by Kabura split from the political wing of PALIPEHUTU. In 2002 the military wing further split into the Kabura and Agathon Rwasa factions. It draws its support from mainly central regions of Mramvya and Lake Tanganyika. PALIPEHUTU-FNL fought in the second Congo war on the side of Kabila, FDRL and Mai Mai militias. It signed a ceasefire agreement with the CNDD-FDD government in 2006 and in 2008 it signed the final peace agreement. It registered as a political party and was compelled to remove the acronym PALIPEHUTU. It is the main opposition party though it split into two factions whose armed fighters are still active active in the Fizi and Uvira territories of DRC. It boycotted the 2010 elections and its leader Agathon Rwasa went into hiding but returned to Bujumbura two years ago and is vying for the presidency in the forthcoming elections. f recent FNL is trying to reconcile with the Tutsi dominated UPRNA.
- MSD is led by Alexis Sinduhije who is considered as the most charismatic and appealing to the urban elites and draws support from mainly the capital Bujumbura's middle and upper class. He went into hiding after he was accused of forming an armed group based in DRC. He was sometime back arrested in Tanzania and deported back to Belgium where he had come from. He retains significant mobilisation potential in urban Bujumbura.
- ADC - Ikibiri is an umbrella political movement comprised of various opposition splinter groups from FRODEBU (Sawanya), CNDD from CNDD-FDD, and a few others. It is led by Leoance Ngendakumana but it has failed to rally a large anti-government alliance. It has failed to attract key players like MSD and UPRONA (the Tutsi dominated party).
- UPRONA is the party associated with Burundi's independence and cherished past leader Prince Rwagasore and Tutsis. It is led by veteran politician Manwangari. It has lost influence and repeatedly changed alliances - initially it allied with the ruling CNDD-FDD in return for protection from past misdeeds to Hutus. It split with one faction led by Nditije but it was refusedREGISTRATION as a party and another faction remaining allied to CNDD-FDD. Currently it is suspected that it is in alliance with Agathon Rwasa's FNL.
- FRODEBU was founded by the first Hutu President Ndadaye and is currently led by Jean Minani.
- FRONDEURS is a group comprised of former members of government and security circles who have been sidelined for being outspoken against the 3rd term for Nkurunziza. Gen Niyombare (dismissed intelligence chief), Richard Nimbesha (former CNDD-FDD Senator), Festus Nyanyungu (former Minister), Gabriel Nizigama (former Minister) and a few others.
- Party for National Recovery(PARENA) led by former President Jean Baptiste Bagaza.
- There are about 30 other smaller political parties who don't even have parliamentary representation.
- There are over 1000 civil society organisations and two big trade unions. Tutsi dominate civil society organisations and the media.
Protests
On 27th April 2015 protests started in the capital Bujumbura. It started from the Tutsi dominated areas of the city like Ngagara, Cibitoke, Musaga, Nyakabiga, and Mutakura. The protesters comprised of mostly low income, unemployed, and uneducated male youths from the less privileged backgrounds. Even during the era of Tutsi regimes, anti government demonstrations used to originate from these areas. The Police and the Imbonerakure were at hand to stop the protesters from reaching the city center by shooting dead two people and injuring others. Government claimed that the first two to be killed were members of its paramilitary youth wing, the Imbonerakure.
Opposition groups and the civil society called people to the street with promises that the protests would last as long as their demands were not met. However, it is evident that these leaders had not taken time to plan. The leaders were not on the ground but were instead on radio and social media. Three independent radio stations were closed including Africa Free Radio (RPA) popularly known as 'the voice of the voiceless.' While radio RPA was completely shut down, the other two stations i.e Bonesha and Isanganiro were curtailed from broadcasting outside Bujumbura city and APR had its land line telephones cutoff.The regime went ahead to shutdown social media like Whatsapp, Twitter etc. The protesters set up barricades in areas of cibitoke and the police responded with firing live bullets directly at protesters. As the protests progressed, it became evident that the elites had shunned it. The Media House - a gathering place for Journalists was closed down immediately after arresting Pier Mbonimpa a leading human rights activist and President of the independent rights organisation, APRODH.
The Imbonerakuri hurled a grenade at protesters in the Kanyosha suburb that left dozens wounded. In the meantime thousands of refugees had been fleeing the country to neighbouring Rwanda, DRC and Tanzania. The highest number is said to have fled to Rwanda and is predominantly Tutsi. It is this group that fled to Rwanda that commenced the rumour that the Rwandese Hutu militias were being used by CNDD-FDD in quelling the protests. About 600 students from the University of Burundi sought protection from the USA embassy by camping in its open square. President Nkurunziza addressed the nation calling for calm arguing thus: "... the current crisis is nothing compared to what we experienced in 1993 - 1994 at the start of the civil war." The government termed the protesters as terrorists who were leading an insurrection. A week later, government and the opposition met but could not come up with a comprehensive solution. The Minister of Internal Affairs led a team of government officials to Rwanda in an attempt to convince the refugees to return home. The refugees objected citing fears of the CNDD-FDD paramilitary youth wing, Imbonerakure.
By the time the protest was paused for one day last Friday, 17 people had been killed.
International Community
On 27th February 2015 the USA Deputy Secretary of State had cautioned thus: "We hope that the presidential elections will follow the Arusha Peace Agreement concerning term limits". Just a few days into the protests,FOREIGN AFFAIRS Ministers from the East Africa Community member states visited Burundi. Rwanda's President Kagame told a convention in Switzerland in reference to the protests in Burundi thus: "If your own citizens tell you that we do not want you to do that or to lead us, may be they are saying you have not done enough for them." Russia blocked a proposal by the UN Security council to issue a statement on the crisis in Burundi by arguing that: "its not the business of the security council and the UN charter to get involved in constitutional matters of sovereign states" said Russia's Ambassador to UN.South Africa's President appointed the Minister in the Presidency Jeff Rodebe as his special envoy with a task of carrying a special message to Nkurunziza for him to step aside from running for a third term. On 5th March the EU warned that running for a third term was risky.The AU Commission Chief said that it was clear that there shouldn't be a third term for the incumbent adding that; "prohibition and repression of peaceful demonstrations expressing legitimate concerns would violate the conditions necessary for a credible and transparent vote". The head of the EU election monitoring mission in Burundi expressed concern over violence. The USA Secretary of State criticised Nkurunziza's desire to cling to power.The ICC Chief Prosecutor said that his office was closely following events in Burundi. The UN Special Envoy for the Great Lakes appealed for calm. Belgium has suspended funding for the elections and support to the Police while the USA has threatened sanctions. The UN denied earlier reports that Secretary General Moon had requested Uganda's Museveni to intervene in Burundi: "We dont have any comment on what the Uganda authorities said and we did not put out a read out of the meeting. our efforts in Burundi involve getting the parties to engage in dialogue with each other and have nothing to do with military intervention". The Presidents of the Four Presidents of the East African Community member states are meeting in Dares-salaam over the crisis in Burundi.
Role of the Security services
Following the Arusha Peace Agreement, the former Tutsi dominated army (FAB) was incorporated with the former rebel combatants to form a new national army (FDN) at 50/50 for Hutu and Tutsi respectively. It has undergone training by major world powers and it has expressed its professionalism in various peacekeeping missions. Its independence is evidenced by its neutrality in the current protests where it has provided a buffer between the protesters and the Police/Imbonerakure - a stand made publicly clear by both the Minister of Defence and the Commander of the Army. Earlier on the Minister of Defence rejected President Nkurunziza's attempt to incorporate armed elements of the Imbonerakure into the national army. Nkurunziza relies so much on the police and the intelligence services to maintain a grip on power while suppressing political dissent. The Minister of internal Affairs Eduardo Nduwimana is a hardliner who coordinates the National Security Council, the Police, the secret service, Nkurunziza's inner circle and the party's paramilitary youth wing, Imbonerakure. The secret service (SNR) formerly headed by the ruthless killer Gen Adolph Nshimirimana has licence to kill. Gen Nsimirimana headed Nkurunziza's intelligence services right from the time of the war until recently and is responsible for much of the extra judicial killings that were experienced by the country in recent times. He is now an Advisor to the President but also doubles as the brain behind the Imbonerakure youth wing that is headed by Denis Karera. Gen Gullaume Bunyoni the current head of the Secret service is another Nkurunziza loyalist and a key player in the later's political schemes.
Electoral Commission
The Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) is aligned to CNDD-FDD. f recent it has been involved in registering and distribution of new IDs to Burundians. The exercise is marred by irregularities and is suspect. There has been instances of multiple registration and issuance of IDs. It allowed the reliance on Baptism cards, school IDs, Driving permits etc in identifying eligible voters for registration. TheAPPLICATION forms for biometric ID consisted of suspicious questionnaires i.e Bank Account, Land possession, etc. Because of lack of independence, owing to the ongoing crisis, it has failed to declare a halt in the upcoming electoral exercise.
Forecast
CNDD-FDD can not survive without Nkurunziza because like Museveni he has turned it into a personal cult. The opposition is banking on failing Nkurunziza's bid for another term so that they can trounce on CNDD-FDD. The East African leaders will not do much to change Nkurunziza'a stand. Museveni is in the same boat with Nkurunziza and that is why he has never commented on the ongoing crisis fearing that a successful protest in Burundi will stage the stage for Uganda. Rwanda's Kagame has no good relations with Nkurunziza owing to the recent misunderstanding between Rwanda and Tanzania where the club of Kagame, Kaguta and Kenyata attempted to isolate Tanzania from the East African Community but Nkurunziza sided with Tanzania. Rwanda is attempting to draw in its own FDRL rebel group into the current protests in Burundi by coaching refugees to allege that FDRL is siding with CNDD-FDD in targeting certain individuals. It is most probable that Rwanda is fuelling the protests and already Burundi has expelled a Rwandese Anthony Masonzera who was the CEO of ECONET, the countries giant telephone company. The minority Tutsi in Burundi during their hey days helped the Tutsis led by Kagame to seize power in Rwanda during the early 90s. Burundi has a number of armed groups in opposition with bases in the DRC and sympathisers within the country but because the army has taken a neutral stand, these armed groups have not joined the current political arena in spite of the killings the Police continues to met on the protesters. However, should the FDRL factor succeed in swaying the legitimate protests, then the crisis will take a Tutsi/Hutu dimension that will result into a resumption of ethnic hostilities.However, it would be a disservice if the men in uniform from either side hijacked the people's revolution as was the case in Egypt.
The protests lack political leadership and guidance and if the opposition and civil society do not come in to give guidance, the protest will be infiltrated it and dies out due to fatigue. The international community has clearly pronounced itself and its upon the people of Burundi not to relent and loose such a golden opportunity but to carry out focused protests in defence of the constitution. Sort of that, Nkurunziza is determined to go ahead with the elections though campaigns and election will be marred by intimidation and violence. His determination is contained in a promise he made when he was registering his candidacy by promising that this was going to be his final term.
INFORMATION IS POWER.
CNDD-FDD was formed in 1994 following the assassination by the Tutsi dominated army of the first Hutu President Ndadaye. It was led by Leonard Nyangoma and drew its political leadership from Hutu intellectuals from mostly the southern Province of Bururi. However its fighters were drawn from different parts of the whole country and had its bases in the refugee camps in Tanzania. By 2001, the rebel outfit boosted of about 25,000 fighters under the leadership of Bosco Ndayikengurukiye. In October 2001 the little known Peter Nkurunziza the current President split the rebel outfit taking with him about 90% of the rebel fighters leaving the rest to his rival Bosco Ndayikengurukiye who signed a truce with the government. In December 2002, Nkurunziza also signed a ceasefire with government. These ceasefires gave way to the Arusha Peace Agreement that stipulated a power sharing agreement between majority Hutus who are 86% and Tutsis being 14% of the total population. Under the arrangement, the National Assembly was to be comprised of 60% Hutus and 40% Tutsi, the Senate was to be 50/50 and the army was also to be shared at 50/50.
In 2005 a constitutional referendumAPPROVED
a new constitution by 92% votes but the Tutsi dominated parties argued that the new constitutions did not give Tutsi enough guarantees. The CNDD-FDD registered as a political party and won parliamentary elections with 80% votes. The following month Peter Nkurunziza was voted by the National Assembly as President unopposed for a five year term. His CNDD-FDD allied with the Tutsi dominated parties. In 2007 the CNDD-FDD National Chairman Husein Rajab was deposed at the party congress and thereafter arrested on allegations of treason before being convicted and sentenced to 13 years imprisonment. This is similar to what happened to Museveni's former Secretary General and Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi. In 2010 Nkurunziza won the general election that were boycotted by the mainstream opposition parties. In April 2014 he attempted without success to amend the constitution for a third term but missed it by one vote. In the same futile move he attempted to amend the constitution to replace the two Vice Presidents (one Tutsi and the other Hutu) with a Prime Minister - a move that would have undermined the power balance. Despite the above setbacks, he went ahead to scheme for a third term among which he was training and arming his party youths commonly known as Imberakuri (those who see far) which is the equivalency of Museveni's Crime Preventers. A top UN official who authored a report about this arming of the youth was expelled from the country.Following the failed constitutional amendments the following developments took place:
- The Minister of Internal Affairs publicly stated thus: "My advice to politicians planning to vie for the presidency is to prepare to knowing that they will contest against the current President." On 21st March 2014 both the CNDD-FDD and the Presidency spokesmen announced that is was only the party congress that was empowered to nominate a presidential candidate.He was simply hoodwinking Burundians while buying time the same way Museveni is hoodwinking Ugandans.
- In January 2015 CNDD-FDD Senator Richard Nimbashe gave a press release opposing Nkurunziza's third term bid and went further to state that the same view is held by many party members. He was immediately expelled from the party, senate and his position at the Land Commission (CNTB).
- On 13th February 2014 the National Intelligence Service (SNR) issued a Memo warning the President against attempt to seek a third term. It advised him to cede power at the end of his second term for the good of himself, his family and the party. Instead, the Director of SNR Gen Godfroid Niyombare was dismissed from service.
- On 1st March 2015 former CNDD-FDD national Chairman escaped from the main prison after serving for 8 of the 13 years. He later told a foreign radio station that he had been assisted by top government officials and some fighters who were in the bush. He claimed that he had supporters in all government institutions.
- On 6th March 2015 the Catholic Bishop of Bujumbura Evariste Ngoyegoye preached against the 3rd term thus: "After analysis of the Arusha Peace Agreement and the constitution, by questioning our hearts as citizens who love their country and as shepherds of the church, we say that Burundians have agreed that the person elected to lead Burundi can not go beyond two terms of five years each". The statement sent shock waves throughout the country given Burundi's religious structure where 62% are Catholic, 6% Anglican and the remaining being shared by different smaller christian denominations and a significant number of Muslims. Right from the inception of the country's violent history, the Catholic church was accused of being a "church of silence" for its liberal stand. The Bishop declared nine days of prayers for peace and transparency in the elections.
- On 11th March 2015 CNDD-FDD Chairman Pascal Nyabenda told the BBC that opinions polls had indicated that CNDD-FDD supporters, the Bagumyaibanga (those who keep a secret) want President Nkurunziza to seek reelection. Immediately after, the party Spokesman stated that there had not been aSURVEY
for such opinion polls and that the party had other people who could stand for the presidency.- On 14th March 2015 the CNDD-FDD Council of Elders which is the highest body of the party met in the presence of President Nkurunziza and overwhelmingly rejected his third term bid.
- On 23rd March 2015 a statement signed by 17 members of the CNDD-FDD top executive body urged Nkurunziza not to seek a third term. Among them were the Spokesmen for both the party and the presidency. Two days later ten of the seventeen dissenters were sacked from the party and their positions. The statement from the Presidency accused them of conspiracy to destabilise the party and the country. This is what happened with the likes of MP Ssekikubo and group and all others suspected of being pro-Mbabazi.
- The Imbonerakure - a paramilitary and armed youth wing of CNDD-FDD has been at the forefront of the push for third term for President Nkurunziza throughout the country. Their equivalency in Uganda is the Crime Preventers and patriotic clubs members whom the Police is providing with paramilitary skills in exchange for supporting Museveni's sole candidature.
- On 26th April 2015 the CNDD-FDD congress nominated Nkurunziza as the party's flag bearer. The following day 27th April, protesters opposed to his third term took to the streets of the city's suburbs. The general elections are scheduled for May 26th 2015 while the Presidential elections are scheduled for June 26th 2015. Just as is the case with Museveni,separating the two elections is designed to give the incumbent an added advantage over other contenders.
- The Constitutional Court quashed the objection to his reelection by upholding that he was eligible for reelection. The Vice President of the constitutional court Justice Slyvere Nimpagaritse who was one of the 7 man panel that determined the petition fled to Rwanda citing that the government had coerced the Justices
with death threats.
- Immediately after the court's pronouncement, President Nkurunziza registered as a Presidential candidate seeking another term in the upcoming June 2015 Presidential elections.
President Nkurunziza's legacy
Nkurunziza inherited an ethically divided country. Through a coalition with Tutsi party UPRONA, he managed to contain the ethnic divide. The Arusha Peace Agreement was an institutional arrangement that created a power sharing agreement between the elites of the two ethnic groups. This coalition of Tutsi/CNDD-FDD fell apart following attempts to tamper with the constitution in 2014. His reign brought relative peace in the country, he got closer to the common man through community service and he is a singer a choir member in one of the bornAGAIN
churches, allowed a vibrant press though with stringent conditions and persecution of individual journalists, introduced free education and antenatal and medical services, promoted agricultural and veterinary services, promoted sports (being a sportsman by profession), facilitated the building of small scale factories, made strides in road construction, attracted foreign aid and investment, and he won several international prizes. He created an environment for freedom of association, expression and assembly though with some degree of repression and in some instances grave consequences. He initiated a land redistribution scheme that has generated alot of controversy more especially among the Tutsi who had grabbed land when the Hutus fled the country decades ago. He has been dragging his feet over constituting a Truth and Reconciliation Commission (CVR) simply because of his alliance with the Tutsi who are the major culprits in the country's violent history. During 2010 campaigns he promised to build dams to improve on the country's energy needs but he has not done anything so far to address the endemic problem of rampant power cuts and its rising tariffs. The land reform scheme (CNTB) is seen as a victor/vanquished based and viewed with suspicion more especially by the Tutsi. Burundi has a high population density and very limited natural resources thus most of the population remain economically suppressed and resign themselves to subsistence agricultural farming. With baiting poverty and poor health services, surviving is the norm and living is a privilege. Save for Bujumbura the capital, CNDD-FDD enjoys an organised political force in the rest of the country such that even without ballot stuffing and intimidation, it can win an election. CNDD- FDD manages a barrage of satellite political parties that legitimise its victory in case of a boycott by major political parties. Opposition and civil society
- Leonard Nyangoma the founding father of CNDD-FDD split from the party in the late 1990sdue to to ethnicity being a hardliner Hutu, but retains its remnants under CNDD which is dominant in Bururi which is the equivalence of Ankole region in Uganda. It is in Bururi where the Hima, Tutsi and Hutu are equally strong. Unlike Rwanda, in Burundi they have Himas as an ethnic class more privileged than Tutsi. Since the 2010 elections, Nyangoma remains in exile.Burundi society is subdivided into four categories i.e Abaganwa, Abatutsi, Abahima, Abahutu and abatwa. The Baganwa were the rulers during the days of the monarchy, the Tutsi and the Hima are two distinct groups each with separate clans and specific roles in the kingdom. The Batwa were the makers of pottery. Unlike in Rwanda, in Burundi Hutus helped run the kingdom; they were the closest advisors to the king and servants at the court (serving at the court was an honour). Tutsi were herders who had no role at the royal court while Himas were very prevalent at the royal court because they had other imprtant functions among them herders of the kingdom's sacred bulls. After the abolition of the monarchy in Burundi, the Hima though continue to be identified as such, they are commonly classified as Tutsi. Therefore the meanings of Tutsi and Hutu in Burundi is different from the meaning of the same in Rwanda.
- Following the genocide against Burundi Hutus in 1972, many Hutus fled to DRC and Tanzania. In 1980 the Hutus in refugee camps in Tanzania formed the Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People (PALIPEHUTU). It was founded by Remmy Gahutu who later died mysteriously. In 1985 it established its armed wing that came to be known as PALIPEHUTU-FNL. In 1990 a splinter political group formed FROLINA. In 1991 the armed wing, PALIPEHUTU-FNL led by Kabura split from the political wing of PALIPEHUTU. In 2002 the military wing further split into the Kabura and Agathon Rwasa factions. It draws its support from mainly central regions of Mramvya and Lake Tanganyika. PALIPEHUTU-FNL fought in the second Congo war on the side of Kabila, FDRL and Mai Mai militias. It signed a ceasefire agreement with the CNDD-FDD government in 2006 and in 2008 it signed the final peace agreement. It registered as a political party and was compelled to remove the acronym PALIPEHUTU. It is the main opposition party though it split into two factions whose armed fighters are still active active in the Fizi and Uvira territories of DRC. It boycotted the 2010 elections and its leader Agathon Rwasa went into hiding but returned to Bujumbura two years ago and is vying for the presidency in the forthcoming elections. f recent FNL is trying to reconcile with the Tutsi dominated UPRNA.
- MSD is led by Alexis Sinduhije who is considered as the most charismatic and appealing to the urban elites and draws support from mainly the capital Bujumbura's middle and upper class. He went into hiding after he was accused of forming an armed group based in DRC. He was sometime back arrested in Tanzania and deported back to Belgium where he had come from. He retains significant mobilisation potential in urban Bujumbura.
- ADC - Ikibiri is an umbrella political movement comprised of various opposition splinter groups from FRODEBU (Sawanya), CNDD from CNDD-FDD, and a few others. It is led by Leoance Ngendakumana but it has failed to rally a large anti-government alliance. It has failed to attract key players like MSD and UPRONA (the Tutsi dominated party).
- UPRONA is the party associated with Burundi's independence and cherished past leader Prince Rwagasore and Tutsis. It is led by veteran politician Manwangari. It has lost influence and repeatedly changed alliances - initially it allied with the ruling CNDD-FDD in return for protection from past misdeeds to Hutus. It split with one faction led by Nditije but it was refusedREGISTRATION
as a party and another faction remaining allied to CNDD-FDD. Currently it is suspected that it is in alliance with Agathon Rwasa's FNL. - FRODEBU was founded by the first Hutu President Ndadaye and is currently led by Jean Minani.
- FRONDEURS is a group comprised of former members of government and security circles who have been sidelined for being outspoken against the 3rd term for Nkurunziza. Gen Niyombare (dismissed intelligence chief), Richard Nimbesha (former CNDD-FDD Senator), Festus Nyanyungu (former Minister), Gabriel Nizigama (former Minister) and a few others.
- Party for National Recovery(PARENA) led by former President Jean Baptiste Bagaza.
- There are about 30 other smaller political parties who don't even have parliamentary representation.
- There are over 1000 civil society organisations and two big trade unions. Tutsi dominate civil society organisations and the media.
Protests
On 27th April 2015 protests started in the capital Bujumbura. It started from the Tutsi dominated areas of the city like Ngagara, Cibitoke, Musaga, Nyakabiga, and Mutakura. The protesters comprised of mostly low income, unemployed, and uneducated male youths from the less privileged backgrounds. Even during the era of Tutsi regimes, anti government demonstrations used to originate from these areas. The Police and the Imbonerakure were at hand to stop the protesters from reaching the city center by shooting dead two people and injuring others. Government claimed that the first two to be killed were members of its paramilitary youth wing, the Imbonerakure.
Opposition groups and the civil society called people to the street with promises that the protests would last as long as their demands were not met. However, it is evident that these leaders had not taken time to plan. The leaders were not on the ground but were instead on radio and social media. Three independent radio stations were closed including Africa Free Radio (RPA) popularly known as 'the voice of the voiceless.' While radio RPA was completely shut down, the other two stations i.e Bonesha and Isanganiro were curtailed from broadcasting outside Bujumbura city and APR had its land line telephones cutoff.The regime went ahead to shutdown social media like Whatsapp, Twitter etc. The protesters set up barricades in areas of cibitoke and the police responded with firing live bullets directly at protesters. As the protests progressed, it became evident that the elites had shunned it. The Media House - a gathering place for Journalists was closed down immediately after arresting Pier Mbonimpa a leading human rights activist and President of the independent rights organisation, APRODH.
The Imbonerakuri hurled a grenade at protesters in the Kanyosha suburb that left dozens wounded. In the meantime thousands of refugees had been fleeing the country to neighbouring Rwanda, DRC and Tanzania. The highest number is said to have fled to Rwanda and is predominantly Tutsi. It is this group that fled to Rwanda that commenced the rumour that the Rwandese Hutu militias were being used by CNDD-FDD in quelling the protests. About 600 students from the University of Burundi sought protection from the USA embassy by camping in its open square. President Nkurunziza addressed the nation calling for calm arguing thus: "... the current crisis is nothing compared to what we experienced in 1993 - 1994 at the start of the civil war." The government termed the protesters as terrorists who were leading an insurrection. A week later, government and the opposition met but could not come up with a comprehensive solution. The Minister of Internal Affairs led a team of government officials to Rwanda in an attempt to convince the refugees to return home. The refugees objected citing fears of the CNDD-FDD paramilitary youth wing, Imbonerakure.
By the time the protest was paused for one day last Friday, 17 people had been killed.
International Community
On 27th February 2015 the USA Deputy Secretary of State had cautioned thus: "We hope that the presidential elections will follow the Arusha Peace Agreement concerning term limits". Just a few days into the protests,FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Ministers from the East Africa Community member states visited Burundi. Rwanda's President Kagame told a convention in Switzerland in reference to the protests in Burundi thus: "If your own citizens tell you that we do not want you to do that or to lead us, may be they are saying you have not done enough for them." Russia blocked a proposal by the UN Security council to issue a statement on the crisis in Burundi by arguing that: "its not the business of the security council and the UN charter to get involved in constitutional matters of sovereign states" said Russia's Ambassador to UN.South Africa's President appointed the Minister in the Presidency Jeff Rodebe as his special envoy with a task of carrying a special message to Nkurunziza for him to step aside from running for a third term. On 5th March the EU warned that running for a third term was risky.The AU Commission Chief said that it was clear that there shouldn't be a third term for the incumbent adding that; "prohibition and repression of peaceful demonstrations expressing legitimate concerns would violate the conditions necessary for a credible and transparent vote". The head of the EU election monitoring mission in Burundi expressed concern over violence. The USA Secretary of State criticised Nkurunziza's desire to cling to power.The ICC Chief Prosecutor said that his office was closely following events in Burundi. The UN Special Envoy for the Great Lakes appealed for calm. Belgium has suspended funding for the elections and support to the Police while the USA has threatened sanctions. The UN denied earlier reports that Secretary General Moon had requested Uganda's Museveni to intervene in Burundi: "We dont have any comment on what the Uganda authorities said and we did not put out a read out of the meeting. our efforts in Burundi involve getting the parties to engage in dialogue with each other and have nothing to do with military intervention". The Presidents of the Four Presidents of the East African Community member states are meeting in Dares-salaam over the crisis in Burundi. Role of the Security services
Following the Arusha Peace Agreement, the former Tutsi dominated army (FAB) was incorporated with the former rebel combatants to form a new national army (FDN) at 50/50 for Hutu and Tutsi respectively. It has undergone training by major world powers and it has expressed its professionalism in various peacekeeping missions. Its independence is evidenced by its neutrality in the current protests where it has provided a buffer between the protesters and the Police/Imbonerakure - a stand made publicly clear by both the Minister of Defence and the Commander of the Army. Earlier on the Minister of Defence rejected President Nkurunziza's attempt to incorporate armed elements of the Imbonerakure into the national army. Nkurunziza relies so much on the police and the intelligence services to maintain a grip on power while suppressing political dissent. The Minister of internal Affairs Eduardo Nduwimana is a hardliner who coordinates the National Security Council, the Police, the secret service, Nkurunziza's inner circle and the party's paramilitary youth wing, Imbonerakure. The secret service (SNR) formerly headed by the ruthless killer Gen Adolph Nshimirimana has licence to kill. Gen Nsimirimana headed Nkurunziza's intelligence services right from the time of the war until recently and is responsible for much of the extra judicial killings that were experienced by the country in recent times. He is now an Advisor to the President but also doubles as the brain behind the Imbonerakure youth wing that is headed by Denis Karera. Gen Gullaume Bunyoni the current head of the Secret service is another Nkurunziza loyalist and a key player in the later's political schemes.
Electoral Commission
The Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) is aligned to CNDD-FDD. f recent it has been involved in registering and distribution of new IDs to Burundians. The exercise is marred by irregularities and is suspect. There has been instances of multiple registration and issuance of IDs. It allowed the reliance on Baptism cards, school IDs, Driving permits etc in identifying eligible voters for registration. TheAPPLICATION
forms for biometric ID consisted of suspicious questionnaires i.e Bank Account, Land possession, etc. Because of lack of independence, owing to the ongoing crisis, it has failed to declare a halt in the upcoming electoral exercise.Forecast
CNDD-FDD can not survive without Nkurunziza because like Museveni he has turned it into a personal cult. The opposition is banking on failing Nkurunziza's bid for another term so that they can trounce on CNDD-FDD. The East African leaders will not do much to change Nkurunziza'a stand. Museveni is in the same boat with Nkurunziza and that is why he has never commented on the ongoing crisis fearing that a successful protest in Burundi will stage the stage for Uganda. Rwanda's Kagame has no good relations with Nkurunziza owing to the recent misunderstanding between Rwanda and Tanzania where the club of Kagame, Kaguta and Kenyata attempted to isolate Tanzania from the East African Community but Nkurunziza sided with Tanzania. Rwanda is attempting to draw in its own FDRL rebel group into the current protests in Burundi by coaching refugees to allege that FDRL is siding with CNDD-FDD in targeting certain individuals. It is most probable that Rwanda is fuelling the protests and already Burundi has expelled a Rwandese Anthony Masonzera who was the CEO of ECONET, the countries giant telephone company. The minority Tutsi in Burundi during their hey days helped the Tutsis led by Kagame to seize power in Rwanda during the early 90s. Burundi has a number of armed groups in opposition with bases in the DRC and sympathisers within the country but because the army has taken a neutral stand, these armed groups have not joined the current political arena in spite of the killings the Police continues to met on the protesters. However, should the FDRL factor succeed in swaying the legitimate protests, then the crisis will take a Tutsi/Hutu dimension that will result into a resumption of ethnic hostilities.However, it would be a disservice if the men in uniform from either side hijacked the people's revolution as was the case in Egypt.
The protests lack political leadership and guidance and if the opposition and civil society do not come in to give guidance, the protest will be infiltrated it and dies out due to fatigue. The international community has clearly pronounced itself and its upon the people of Burundi not to relent and loose such a golden opportunity but to carry out focused protests in defence of the constitution. Sort of that, Nkurunziza is determined to go ahead with the elections though campaigns and election will be marred by intimidation and violence. His determination is contained in a promise he made when he was registering his candidacy by promising that this was going to be his final term.
INFORMATION IS POWER.
Posted by Uganda - A Change of Guards! a
Viele GruBe
Robukui
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