{UAH} Ethiopian forces ‘cross into Kenya’, risk diplomatic fall out with key regional ally | Mail & Guardian Africa (Mobile edition)

ETHIOPIA has risked diplomatically antagonising a major ally after local media reported that its forces had crossed into Kenyan territory.

The Ethiopians are said to have assessed and photographed the area, which is estimated to be be less than 20 kilometres inside Kenya. They allegedly admitted that the Kenyan government was not aware of their presence, but said they would return. 

The two countries were so closely allied strategically, Kenyatta gave Selassie a generous piece of land close to State House Nairobi for Ethiopia to build its mission.

Kenyans have however reacted strongly, largely viewing the incident as a show of foreign policy weakness. The country has in the past also been involved in a border dispute with Uganda over the small but resource-rich island of Migingo. 

Kenya is perceived to have come out with the more bloodied nose from that encounter, with Uganda forces still sighted on the island.

The country regained some national pride with the 2011 invasion of Somalia to flush out Al-Shabaab militants, but it has in turn had to endure deadly retaliatory attacks on home soil, piling more pressure on its security architecture.

The latest incursion by Ethiopia would thus present an unwanted headache for a country that already has its hands full of diplomatic headaches including Burundi and the threat of the Somalia militant group Al-Shabab, and which is struggling to project its influence regionally, despite being the biggest economy in East Africa.

Scholars of geopolitics have argued that the lack of a credible committed defence more often than not invites other nations to test borders and diplomatic boundaries.

In April, Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta's jet was embarrassingly turned back while reportedly in Ethiopian airspace in a diplomatic riddle that is yet to be solved publicly. 

The plane was initially thought to have been pushed back while over Eritrean territory, but Asmara denied the aircraft had even reached its territory.  

But with Ethiopia set to vote next week, nationalistic sentiment may again be running high among its elite, leading to a flexing of strength in a bid to rally the frontier communities.

The country could thus be looking to batten down the hatches ahead of an election where, though the ruling party faces no real threat, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn who took over the job after the larger-than-life Meles Zenawi died in 2012, needs to project strength in a country where it plays well to its history of not having been definitely conquered by a European coloniser.

But given its robust ties with Nairobi, it would be against its interests to antagonise its southern neighbour.

http://m.mgafrica.com/article/2015-05-19-ethiopian-forces-cross-into-kenya-risk-diplomatic-fall-out#.VVwT3FL3asM

Brian M. Kwesiga

President and CEO,

Ugandan North American Association - UNAA

972.415.6372 | www.unaa.org | "United We Stand"