{UAH} Pojim/WBK: Grand coalition or not, opposition is still confusing voters - Comment

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/OpEd/comment/Grand-coalition-or-not--opposition-is-still-confusing-voters-/-/434750/2758760/-/ms6f8sz/-/index.html

Grand coalition or not, opposition is still confusing voters

Uganda's opposition parties have finally cobbled together another "grand coalition." Ugandans wanting any change that would ensue from defeating their long-serving leader, Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, have greeted the news with some satisfaction.

An acquaintance of many years told me recently: "Museveni is the only president I have known all my life." Apparently he is "completely fed up" (netamiddwa) with having him around.

He was about 16 years old when Museveni seized power. Museveni is therefore not his first president. So what he meant was that it was under Museveni's rule that he became an adult and also aware of, and interested in, politics.

So what is his beef with Museveni? The answer, relayed in Luganda vernacular, was as dramatic as it was humorous: "Omusajja yajja ndi mwana muto. Abaana nzadde, nabo bakuze. Akyaali wano! Yye bannaffe, alivaako ddi?" (I was a child when the man came to power. I now have grown-up children. He's still here! When is he leaving?). He was optimistic that the grand coalition is what is needed to remove "the man."

Also happy with these developments are sections of the more sophisticated public, among whom some believe that the far-reaching change they want to see is possible only if the opposition at large joins hands rather than each group making individual efforts.

In the impassioned and somewhat wishful words of one commentator, only through joint efforts will Museveni and his "decadent system and unprogressive politics" be dislodged, and Uganda redirected "onto the path of a new form of politics where free and fair competition is guaranteed."

Conventional wisdom informs these reactions.

There are examples across Africa, not many but enough to inspire opposition parties elsewhere on the continent, where grand coalitions have dislodged long-reigning presidents whom solo efforts by disjointed groupings had failed to bring down.

This is the basis of the hopes of some Ugandans who are fed up with Museveni that maybe this time, just maybe, he too could be finally sent packing.

There is also the belief that what individual parties lack by way of organisational and other capacities, a grand coalition can make up for by its sheer size.

Although comforting, these hopes and beliefs ignore the power of context. Uganda's current context may not guarantee anything, but it ought not to be disregarded by Museveni's active and armchair opponents.

For starters, election campaigns are costly affairs in financial terms. Without sacks of money to thank, buy or buy out, mobilise, reward, morale-boost, and motivate potential voters, potential opponents, potential rivals, and even polling agents, a candidate stands little chance of winning.

It is common knowledge that individually, Uganda's political parties lack the resources to even keep themselves afloat as political organisations worthy of consideration as governments-in-waiting.

This is partly the outcome of the government's determination to deny them resources, and partly that of their own failure to inspire their rank-and-file members and supporters into funding them, which is what political parties elsewhere do, and their counterparts in 1950s and 60s Uganda used to do. The grand coalition will struggle to overcome these constraints.

The law prescribes when candidates for public office should start campaigning and the duration of the campaigns. But as far as presidential campaigns are concerned, this applies only to opposition candidates. The incumbent has customarily embarked on wooing voters well in advance, with, among other ruses, nationwide anti-poverty campaigns providing the necessary cover.

It is now slightly over half a year before the next elections. The grand coalition is yet to even begin discussing how they will handle the difficult issue of selecting a joint presidential candidate.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict that the process will be long and hardly pain-free. By the time the candidate is chosen and introduced to the public and by the time a campaign machinery is put in place to support him (it is unlikely it will be a woman), candidate Museveni will have done several rounds of touring the country.

Moreover, everybody now knows he will be running, while sizeable numbers don't even know there is a grand opposition coalition. That in itself gives Museveni a huge head-start.

And then there are the coalition-specific issues. About two years ago, leading opposition politicians made it clear they would not be participating in elections organised by the Museveni government.

It was a clear message to the public: "We are boycotting." Some have continued to disseminate that message. Others prefer vagueness, and yet others are telling whoever cares to listen that they will be participating. There is no better way to, at best confuse potential voters.

Museveni's promises may sound rather timeworn, but at least he has a clear message: He wants to stay because he still has things to do. The coalition needs an equally coherent message. And now that former PM Amama Mbabazi is running too, identifying one is most urgent.

Frederick Golooba-Mutebi is a Kampala- and Kigali-based researcher and writer on politics and public affairs. E-mail: fgmutebi@yahoo.com

Grand coalition or not, opposition is still confusing voters - Comment

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/OpEd/comment/Grand-coalition-or-not--opposition-is-still-confusing-voters-/-/434750/2758760/-/ms6f8sz/-/index.html

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