{UAH} Pojim/WBK: Dramatic U-turn leaves Besigye on the defensive

http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/38725-dramatic-u-turn-leaves-besigye-on-the-defensive

Dramatic U-turn leaves Besigye on the defensive

Written by Edris Kiggundu

Last Updated: 13 July 2015

On the defensive: The more Besigye explains the more unconvincing he seems

Col Kizza Besigye has drawn outrage and some praise since he declared his fourth presidential run.

For many, the former FDC president had signaled in his earlier speeches, that he would not offer himself as a presidential candidate in 2016. So the one-million-shilling question is, did he or did he not say that he shall not run for president in 2016?

A review of news coverage of his speeches on that subject provides some clarity on his trend of thought. On July 6 when Besigye kicked off his campaign to become FDC's candidate for president in 2016, he spent some good time not amplifying his message for the election campaign but defending his decision to seek a fourth run yet in earlier comments he had signaled he would not offer himself to run without meaningful electoral reforms.

Besigye, who is standing against Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu, spent 17 out of 37 minutes of his speech explaining that he had not made a U-turn of sorts. He insisted that he had only said he would not contest if there were no electoral reforms.

"I can assure you, ladies and gentlemen, that I am not in the habit of turning around on my words. I am not in that habit," he told party supporters at Najjanankumbi.

Yet the more Besigye tried to clear the air surrounding his fourth bid, the more he appeared defensive and, in some instances, unconvincing to sections of people who have come to admire him. A senior party member, speaking anonymously, told The Observer on July 6 that Besigye's explanation won't  convince many people.

"He is tying himself in knots. In my view I think it is better for him not to stand again, if he was to preserve his reputation," a member who is an MP told us.

Was there a U-turn? A review of his memorial quotes from media interviews and reports over the last three years provide a great insight.

In January 2012, Besigye told journalists at the party headquarters: "I have said it before that I cannot stand for president when Mr. Museveni is the sitting head of state because he is a dictator…"

In saying that, he appeared to have been appealing to that side of him that had lost confidence in the country's electoral process. At this point, he spoke less about reforms and more about the NRM regime which he often referred to as the "military."

Throughout 2013, Besigye, then out of the top leadership of FDC, maintained the same line that it was useless for the opposition to contest in any election when Museveni is still in power.

In November 2013, when asked by Daily Monitor whether he would offer himself as a candidate in the election, he retorted that "contesting for the presidency under the current Electoral Commission would be a ritual without any political significance."

In the early months of 2014, Besigye stuck to his line of not participating in the 2016 election and started saying that even a few electoral reforms may not ensure a credible electoral process.

"…It doesn't matter whether there is an electoral commission that is constituted differently, it cannot achieve better results. And even if it was there, how would it stop soldiers arresting candidates' agents from the polling stations and stuffing boxes? So, you cannot have free and fair elections under a rogue regime which doesn't respect its [own] laws and international laws," Besigye asserted in an interview with The Observer in January 2014.

He added that he would continue participating in the struggle to remove Museveni but not through elections.

"There are people talking about a struggle of an election, we are talking about a struggle of removing the rogue regime. And we are saying that we shall not remove this rogue regime through an election; we want to remove the rogue regime, even the people who will go to the election want to remove the regime," he said.

In October of the same year as calls for electoral reforms intensified, Besigye told The Observer in another interview that "I may not support" whoever emerges as FDC flag bearer if that person offered himself/herself for elections under the prevailing political situation.

"I will be busy fighting the dictatorship all the way. Until that status quo changes, I cannot fight the [dictatorship] and campaign at the same time," he said.

At the party delegates' conference in December 2014, Besigye lambasted the party for wasting efforts on preparing for an election when the political ground is not yet level.

The then party secretary general, Alice Alaso told The Observer in an interview that they would go on with their preparations for the 2016 elections and disregard Besigye's views.

It would appear that the dilly-dallying and change of Besigye's mind occurred this year when some party supporters led a push to convince him to contest. And perhaps fearing to let them down, Besigye opted to give the presidency another shot.

But Moses Khisa, a political analyst, writing in The Observer on July 3, cautioned that Besigye's U-turn had its potential risks.

"… Besigye's candidature will give the unfortunate impression that just as NRM can't look beyond Museveni, the opposition remains unable to think beyond Besigye.

This will hand the NRM apparatchiks the stick with which to easily beat the opposition," Khisa wrote, maintaining, however, that Besigye still remained the leading opposition figure.

During Monday's function at Najjanankumbi, Besigye talked about a military tactic known as camouflage, which he said he had employed before to good political effect.

"You deceive the enemy that you are not there when you are there. You blend in. And that is why Mr Museveni has been finding himself in trouble. In 2006 he had thought I had disappeared, I had gone, only to see me come back," he said as the crowd cheered.

So were his earlier statements about not standing in 2016 part of this "camouflage strategy" to catch Museveni unawares?

It is a question to which he will have to provide convincing answers as he seeks to run against Museveni for the fourth time.
ekiggundu@observer.ug

Dramatic U-turn leaves Besigye on the defensive

http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/38725-dramatic-u-turn-leaves-besigye-on-the-defensive

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