{UAH} Museveni's challenger finds route to presidency is a rocky road
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Uganda: Yoweri Museveni's challenger finds route to presidency is a rocky road
After talking of political reform and bidding for the top job, Uganda's former prime minister Amama Mbabazi has been shunned within the ruling party
Tuesday 4 August 2015 09.00 BST
In their book Dictators and Dictatorships, Natasha M Ezrow and Erica Frantz write about personalist dictatorships, which are different from military or one-party regimes.
"One person dominates the military, state apparatus and ruling party (if one exists)," the authors say. "No autonomous institutions exist independent of the leader. Though the leader may ally with or create a political party, it is merely a tool of the leader."
In this political setup, the "right to rule is ascribed to a person rather than an office, despite the official existence of a written constitution". The leader usually governs using a clique of friends, unquestioning loyalists and family.
"Though personalist dictatorships occasionally survive the death or retirement of the leader, intra-regime turnover [of leaders] is relatively rare," they say.
For all his utopian promises of a fundamental change after seizing power in 1986, Uganda's Yoweri Museveni presides over something akin to a personalist dictatorship, only dressed in democratic garb. Elections – local and national – are stolen or otherwise flawed, the opposition is harassed constantly by the police, and corruption is endemic.
For many people outside Uganda, it is not easy to see the political stagnation under Museveni – masked by sustained economic growth and because the president values public relations. Comparisons with Zimbawe's Robert Mugabe are instructive.
One lingering question in Uganda is where the stimulus for reform will come from. With state security institutions forever intimidating the opposition and civil society, some politicians have looked to "fight from within", hoping that progressive voices within the ruling party can inspire reform.
But events over the past two months will have shaken even the most staunch optimists.
Many opposition activists are sceptical about a sudden enthusiasm for reform on the partof Amama Mbabazi , the former prime minister. Photograph: Rodger Bosch/AFP/Getty Images On 15 June, Amama Mbabazi, long seen as Uganda's most influential politician after Museveni, declared that he would run for chairman of the ruling National Resistance Movement, and for president of Uganda, where elections are due next year. Mbabazi, who had worked with Museveni since the 1970s, was sacked as prime minister last September and removed as NRM secretary general in December.
Announcing his presidential bid, Mbabazi pledged to breathe new life into a government system "that has become weak and inefficient", revitalise "the NRM and return to its roots – a genuine accountable and democratic movement", promote equitable development and respect for the rule of law, and champion quality healthcare and education.
Rather than debate these issues, Museveni has accused Mbabazi of causing confusion in the party. Ministers and party officials are lining up to attack Mbabazi in the media, and on 9 July police deployed hundreds of personnel and armoured vehicles to arrest Mbabazi, who was heading to eastern Uganda for consultations. The police said Mbabazi needed their permission to conduct consultations but he, a lawyer, says they are abusing the law.
As the excitement that greeted Mbabazi's declaration peters out, the reality of the difficulty of reform in personalist regimes sets in. Museveni's reaction to Mbabazi is no different from Mugabe's handling of Joice Mujuru, whom he sacked as vice-president last December – accusing her of plotting against him. A key difficulty lies in the fact that despite the semblance of institutions – such as elected parliaments and a ruling political party – the leaders see government as something very personal.
In January, Museveni declared that all the money in Uganda belonged to him, urging voters in local elections to elect NRM candidates or miss out on development projects. This also means that any NRM politician fraternising with Mbabazi today risks being fired or sidelined by Museveni. Life outside the patronage circles can be hostile to politicians used to a life of luxury. This leaves a reformist such as Mbabazi isolated.
Yoweri Museveni, the Ugandan president since 1986, has been accused of presiding over a personal dictatorship. Photograph: Isaac Kasamani/AFP/Getty Images Ironically, the politicians openly backing Mbabazi are the traditional opposition. They see him as a late convert to the gospel they have been preaching for years. But Mbabazi cannot be seen to fraternise too much with the opposition, lest the ruling party uses it to hasten his possible expulsion.
At the same time, many opposition activists question how Mbabazi, who as prime minister was the architect of the system that oppressed them for decades, can suddenly change and push for reform.
Mbabazi's answer is telling: he says he did not have the power to change things. While people like Mbabazi and Mujuru may hold senior positions, they have little real power, and are easily dispensed with should they aspire to the top job.
It still leaves the question of where change will come from. A military officer suggested a decade ago that the opposition could wait until old age or death takes care of the domineering leader. Yet that may not guarantee reform, as the next leader may be an acolyte of the departed personalist ruler.
Both Mbabazi and Mujuru were considered future presidents. But the names now being talked about for a future leader in Uganda include Museveni's wife, Janet, and his son, special forces commander Brigadier Muhoozi Kainerugaba. And in Zimbabwe, they include Mugabe's wife, Grace.
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