{UAH} Pojim/WBK: The Zanzibar factor: October poll will be a referendum on state of - News

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Zanzibar-October-poll-a-referendum-on-state-of-the-Union-/-/2558/2851280/-/xsnj5g/-/index.html

The Zanzibar factor: October poll will be a referendum on state of

CUF supporters. Tanzania's ruling party's fierce opponent in Zanzibar, Civic United Front (CUF) leaders said they were determined to wrest power from CCM in the semi-autonomous archipelago. PHOTO | FILE 

By MURITHI MUTIGA, TEA Special Correspondent
Posted  Sunday, August 30  2015 at  14:00

The collapse of the constitutional review process ahead of elections in Tanzania means that the October 25 poll will also be a referendum on the status of semi-autonomous Zanzibar, a factor which adds an extra layer of complexity to what is already the tightest contest in the country's history.

The draft constitution produced by the review commission had proposed a three-tier system, which would have seen both mainland Tanganyika and Zanzibar have their own governments falling under the authority of a federal authority. This was aimed at addressing the long-standing complaints of neglect of the island.

But the draft met strong opposition from ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi figures and was dropped before it could go to a referendum.

The failure of the constitution review process directly led to the formation of the opposition alliance Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi (Ukawa), which includes CCM's fierce opponent in Zanzibar, Civic United Front (CUF).

The question of the state of the Union will be a major factor in the campaigns, particularly in Zanzibar.

In interviews with The EastAfrican, senior CUF leaders said they were determined to wrest power from CCM in the semi-autonomous archipelago.

"The economy of the mainland is resource-based while the one on the island is service-based," said Ismail Jussa, a member of the Zanzibar House of Representatives and one of the CUF point-men in the region.

"It's just very hard to match the priorities of both entities and we are determined that we should get autonomy under the authority of the federal government of Tanzania to enable us to put in place measures that will help us follow the path to progress taken by countries like Singapore, Hong Kong and Mauritius."

However, the ruling CCM has predicted victory and castigated CUF leaders for consistently claiming that the results of the election on the island will be rigged in favour of CCM.

Speaking after picking his nomination forms, Zanzibar President Dr Ali Mohamed Shein told supporters his party would win fairly.

"It is very sad that already some candidates are saying that the elections will be manipulated, how? Elections are always transparent, with both party agents and police present. Why do you start complaining of rigging elections now? This is political immaturity."

Dr Shein's opponent will be the veteran CUF chief Seif Sharif Hamad, better known by the name Maalim Seif.

Since 1995, Seif has repeatedly come to within one percentage point of leading CUF to the presidency and, in a rally at the Kibanda Maiti grounds in Zanzibar on August 17, he told locals the momentum was clearly on his side.

"We have always done well, but now you see the whole country is with us. There is no doubt that on October 25 (Edward) Lowassa will be president of Tanzania and CUF will lead Zanzibar," he said.

Zanzibar will be among the most watched regions in the lead-up to the election due to its history.

While analysts contend that the ruling party is facing its first determined challenge at the national level, elections in Zanzibar over the past two decades have not only been close but also been marred by violence and allegations of vote-tampering.

The opposition CUF has consistently claimed that it had been robbed of victory through electoral manipulation particularly in 1995 and 2010, when electoral authorities declared CUF leader Seif had won 49 per cent of the vote and been edged out by the CCM candidate.

In 2001, amid a campaign of protest following the 2000 election, Tanzania for the first time sent refugees fleeing to Kenya as hundreds of Zanzibaris took to the sea in flight at what they said was a wave of violence by the police and associated militias. That was the first time a major wave of refugees was fleeing Tanzania, traditionally one of Africa's most stable countries, in recent years.

In the previous election cycle in 1995, Commonwealth observers labelled the election on the island "a shambles" and imposed a short-lived freeze on foreign assistance while in 2005, pre-election violence saw at least 17 youths critically injured.

A coalition government between CCM and CUF leader Maalim Seif, who was appointed vice president, helped to cool tempers after the 2010 election.

Leading CUF members say this time they are determined to go all the way to power and appear to have been emboldened by the buzz and excitement triggered by the defection of former prime minister Edward Lowassa to the opposition.

A candidate for the Tunguu seat in Zanzibar Simai Mohammed, who was a vice chairman of the constitutional review commission, said it was ironical that the opposition had rallied around the issue of the constitution and the proposed three-tier government yet its flag-bearer, Lowassa, had backed the two-tier system during his time in the ruling party.

Mr Mohammed also gave short shrift to claims that the election will be rigged and faulted their focus on the electoral commission. "Even in football, some people cry foul about the referee when the game is over."

Mr Jussa, on the other hand, accused CCM of panicking due to Mr Lowassa's political standing and said the candidate would stand by the team's manifesto.

One of the key issues to watch amid the electioneering on the island will be the degree to which the electoral contest will be perceived as having been free and fair, a factor which has driven the turn to violence consistently in the past.

The French academic Dr Mailys Chauvin, writing on the website of London-based think-tank Africa Research Institute, notes that the outcome of the election might already be open to contestation considering what she described as intimidation and attempts to bar voters suspected of supporting CUF from registering.

‎"Electoral boundaries and the voter registration process have been manipulated for political gain, while less subtle tactics of intimidation, harassment and repression have created a climate of fear," she wrote.

Dr Mauvin called on observers and interested parties, including the United Nations Development Programme which has offered $22.5 million to support the election process, to step in early enough to avert the danger of confrontation.

"If intimidation practices continue during the campaign in September and October, a free and fair vote cannot plausibly take place on the Isles. If nothing changes, it is likely that Zanzibaris will increasingly take to the streets. CUF agents have warned that their supporters are prepared for mass demonstrations."

The Zanzibar factor: October poll will be a referendum on state of - News

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/Zanzibar-October-poll-a-referendum-on-state-of-the-Union-/-/2558/2851280/-/xsnj5g/-/index.html

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