{UAH} Allan/Pojim/WBK: JPAM draws large crowds, police panic, opposition stumbles - Comment
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JPAM draws large crowds, police panic, opposition stumbles
Nothing has animated Ugandans who would like President Yoweri Museveni to leave power more than the way people in the east of the country welcomed former prime minister and now aspiring presidential candidate, John Patrick Amama Mbabazi.
Mbabazi, who now goes by the moniker JPAM, had gone east to conduct "consultation meetings." All aspiring candidates are free to do so.
It is, however, a mark of how little interest Ugandans have in getting to the bottom of matters political that the question what exactly is meant by "consultation," who the candidates are supposed to be consulting, and what about, has not attracted much attention.
Just as remarkable is that what are supposed to be "consultative meetings" become rallies during which prospective candidates sell themselves or give money and other things to those who come to watch and listen to them, while also putting down rivals.
Curiously, would-be candidates aspiring to unseat President Museveni, who do exactly what he too does when he is out "consulting," have come in for a tongue-lashing by the police and the 'electoral commission for campaigning.
Mbabazi, who some believe is the most likely to give Museveni a run for his money, has even been told by the police that the consultations he had planned in northern Uganda will now not go ahead.
While the police claim he is guilty of breaking rules pertaining to how consultations are supposed to be conducted, the real reason is probably the mammoth crowds that turned up wherever he went.
Of course, crowds don't necessarily mean that whichever individual draws them is popular or that he or she is the one that they intend to vote for. Chances are that in Mbabazi's case people turned up to see for themselves the latest "big fish" defector from Museveni's camp. Truth be told, very few big fish defect openly and go on to try and wrest power from him.
And as big fish go, Mbabazi is a particularly big one. He may complain about the way he is being treated now and even refer to the government as "a rogue government," but no one has forgotten that until only recently he was its chief enforcer.
And those with long memories remember that playing fair with rivals for his parliamentary seat has not been his way of doing things.
However, the police and others in the government seem to have concluded that allowing him to continue going around the country and drawing large crowds is not such a good idea.
It suggests they are at best worried, at worst scared that it could evolve into something bigger and, who knows, translate into support and votes, including in rural areas where Museveni still holds sway or is believed to do so.
The question for the police and others is what they will do if JPAM becomes the joint opposition candidate or, failing that, chooses to rally behind whoever is chosen and goes around drawing similar crowds.
There are many Ugandans who secretly hope for either scenario. They believe that with JPAM in the race as candidate or key campaigner, Museveni's eventual electoral defeat may finally be on the horizon.
The question, however, is whether the "democracy-seeking forces," as the political parties and pressure groups wanting to field a single opposition candidate refer to themselves, will select a candidate who will be acceptable to all, and who will manage to hold the loose and eclectic elite coalition together and galvanise all the anti-Museveni forces in pursuit of regime change.
Talk to any opposition figure worth his or her salt and you get the sense that it is indeed what they would like to happen. But as of the time of writing mid-week, the signs were not good.
First, the usual cacophony about electoral reform seems to be getting louder, with opposition forces unable to agree whether to push for reforms before the elections or participate and then pursue reform afterwards. Key figures are disagreeing publicly.
And then there is the perennial disease of individual political parties failing to reach consensus internally about whether they are in the alliance or not, and if they will lend undivided support to whoever emerges as the joint opposition candidate.
Some even have senior members who are preparing to join the presidential race even if their parties do not endorse them. And while we are at it, some aspiring candidates are already promising not to support certain individuals should they emerge as the winner.
And so what on the one hand potentially promises to be a presidential race like no other in Uganda's history if the "democracy-seeking forces" get things right, is, on the other hand, also looking dangerously likely to abort as yet another missed opportunity by the perennially accident-prone opposition.
By the time you read this column, the opposition may have pulled off a mini-miracle or birthed another fiasco they could have avoided. As a result, Museveni may be smiling smugly or wondering how to kill the newly born monster.
Frederick Golooba-Mutebi is a Kampala- and Kigali-based researcher and writer on politics and public affairs. E-mail: fgmutebi@yahoo.com
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