{UAH} Mao, Mbabazi, Besigye, Bukenya

I have to confess that I am not really surprised by the chorus of people calling on Besigye to stand down for Mbabazi.  Obviously some of those people are doing it out of genuine hope that Mbabazi would win (Dr Muniini?).  But many others are doing it out of self interest (Mao?)

 Dr Muniini references the Kenyan situation where opposition parties ganged up together to secure victory (though he is wrong that they won against Moi).  Dr Muniini comparison to Kenya is not appropriate for Uganda because unlike Uganda's constitution, Kenya's constitution did not require the winner to get at least 51% of the votes. That is why Moi would win with less than 40% of the vote.  Therefore, it made sense for Kenyan parties to form a coalition.  In Uganda, one has to win at least 51% of the vote.  Therefore, there is no urgent need for a backroom deal to force out Besigye.  Let each leader go and compete.  If none of them gets 51% of the vote, then there will be a run off between the top two candidates.  That is better than a backroom deal to force out someone that won democratic primaries for the largest party.  Ordinarily, the leader of the largest party is the one that leads a coalition.  That is why I laughed when I saw a picture of Mbabazi, Mao Bukenya and Besigye sitting at a desk to seek consensus. 

Mao: in 2011, Mao got just 1.86% of the vote.  He knows that there is no way both Besigye and Mbabazi would be running mates becuase they come from the same region....so he probably angling for a position as VP to Mbabazi...so he has an incentive to attack Besigye's refusal to stand down for Mbabazi. 

Bukenya: Bukenya has not shown that he has grassroots support beyond his district.  As recent as July, he said that he was willing to back to NRM if Museveni called him.  Why would TDA consider such a person to determine the next leader of the coalition?

Mbabazi:  as Mao aptly put it, when some one converts to your religion, you do not appoint that person as the leader of the religion, especially if they state openly that they are not leaving their religion!  Mbabazi has been clear that he is in NRM.  So the TDA would be telling voters to vote for NRM against NRM?  

Dr Muniini seems to suggest that Mbabazi will bring in lots of voters from the NRM.  But I have not read about any hoards of voters deserting NRM to join Mbabazi.  Are they waiting for him to lead the TDA before they join him?    Such voters would only come if Mbabazi is a leader of the TDA?   He held huge rallies in the east but he acknowledged that he did it on the back of FDC and other parties (http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/39753-how-nandala-mafabi-aided-mbabazi) 

Let Mbabazi run on his own and get those voters.  If there is a run-off and Mbabazi is not one of the 2 candidates facing each other, then Mbabazi will hopefully ask his voters to fall behind the opposition candidate.  Hoping that Mbabazi's unknown NRM supporters will remain with the opposition after the first round is better than hoping that Mbabazi will draw hoards of voters if he leads the TDA.  More importantly, forcing Mbabazi down the throats of Besigye supporters might cost the TDA votes that would not be revered by the unknown Mbabazi supporters.  The TDA has the benefit of knowing that Besigye has angry supporters that don't want him to stand down.  But the TDA had no knowledge of any NRM members that Mbabazi will bring to the TDA.  Why risk to give up a known vote in favor of an unknown vote?  If the TDA is to take a risk, wouldn't it make better sense to risk losing the unknown than the known vote?  As the English say: "a bird in hand is better than two in the bush".  In Luganda, we say: "eri mu ngabo...ye nswa".

I am one of those pessimists that think that the opposition will not win elections.  I think change will occur as a results of demonstrations. We all know that Bukenya and Mao will not lead demonstrations.  We also know that Mbabazi does not have the stomach to challenge the police.   If he is cheated, will be be able to lead demonstrations?  On two occasions, he has been told to cancel his consultations and he humbly agreed.  Another time, he was stopped on the way to a rally and he humbly agreed to go spend several hours at a police station "for his protection".  

The TDA should conduct primaries to help opposition parties choose a candidate for each constituency.  That is necessary role because there is 51% requirement for parliament positions. 

Finally, Dr Muniini mentions that new members should be treated the same way as old ones...that is true to an extent.  That is i was surprised that Wasswa Birigwa who just joined FDC in January, 2015 was elected to National Chairman in June, 2015 and then sent to TDA to make decisions on behalf of FDC!   In Uganda politics where people cross from party to party without regard to principle, why would FDC trust such a person?  When he run for Mayor of Kla in 2002, he controversially stood down in favor of NRM's Wasswa Ziritwawula...then he was allegedly rewarded with an ambassadorial posts until January, 2015!

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