{UAH} Pojim/WBK: Wall Street's latest panic: Trump could win - POLITICO

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/donald-trump-2016-wall-street-reaction-213614

Wall Street's latest panic: Trump could win

NEW YORK — Wall Street is growing increasingly terrified that Donald Trump — once viewed as an amusing summertime distraction — could actually win the Republican nomination for president.

The real estate billionaire, who took another populist shot on Sunday by ripping into lavish executive pay, continues to rise in the polls. Would-be Wall Street saviors like Jeb Bush are languishing in single digits. The belief that Trump's candidacy would quickly fade is now evaporating in a wave of fear.

"I held four lunches for investors in August and at the first one everyone assumed Trump would implode," said Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners and a senior figure on Wall Street. "By the fourth one everyone was taking him very seriously. He taps into frustrations that are very real and he is a master manipulator of the media."

The CEO of one large Wall Street firm, who declined to be identified by name criticizing the GOP front-runner, said the assumption in the financial industry remains that something will eventually knock Trump off and send voters toward a more establishment candidate. But that assumption is no longer held with strong conviction. And a dozen Wall Street executives interviewed for this article could not say what might dent Trump's appeal or when it might happen.

"I don't know anyone who is a Donald Trump supporter. I don't know anyone who knows anyone who is a Donald Trump supporter. They are like this huge mystery group," the CEO said. "So it's a combination of shock and bewilderment. No one really knows why this is happening. But my own belief is that the laws of gravity will apply and those who are prepared to run the marathon will benefit when Trump drops out at mile 22. Right now people think Trump is pretty hilarious but the longer it goes on the more frightening it gets."

The latest frightening broadside for the Wall Street class came on Sunday when Trump said on CBS's "Face the Nation" that executive pay in America is "a complete joke" and promised to raise taxes on "the hedge fund guys." In a statement sent to POLITICO on Monday from his campaign, Trump relished in the attacks from Wall Street, singling out both Bush and Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, another favorite on Wall Street.

"Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton will continue to let Wall Street and the 'hedge fund guys' rip off the people by paying no or very little in taxes," Trump said. "They have total and complete control of Hillary, Jeb and others running. My campaign is self- funded. The only people that have control of me are the people of the United States."

The comments on Wall Street were relatively tame in comparison with his fiery rhetoric about deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants within two years and building a giant border wall with Mexico. The billionaire also recently ripped former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina's looks, saying they would make her unelectable.

But Trump's skill at tapping into populist discontent with all major U.S. institutions — including Wall Street — has financial executives increasingly dismayed at the GOP front-runner's staying power and long-term impact on the party even if he doesn't get the nomination.

"I don't think Trump is going to win, but I do worry about all the damage being done to Republicans among Hispanics and women by him being such an idiot," said a senior executive and major GOP fundraiser at a large bank who also declined to be identified by name. "Everyone thinks he is a buffoon and a bombastic loudmouth who won't be around at the end. But the concern is that he is still at 30 in the polls and he is going to hang around for a while and do a great deal of damage."

So far there is no organized effort on Wall Street to mount a "stop Trump" campaign.

Mostly such efforts entail funneling even more money to Bush, whose super PAC, Right to Rise, raised more than $100 million through the first six months of the year. To a lesser extent, Wall Street money continues to flow to Rubio, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, though Walker is largely viewed as increasingly marginalized in the race.

Supporters of Bush say they still believe that the former Florida governor's numbers will begin to move when the campaign starts deploying some of its huge war chest to run television ads in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other early primary and caucus states. And while they say Bush needs a strong performance at Wednesday night's debate, they don't expect Bush to throw haymakers Trump's way.

"Yes I'm a little worried about how poorly Jeb is doing," said a second Wall Street CEO who is backing the former Florida governor but would not speak on the record. "Hopefully it will get better over time. But there is no point trading insults with Trump. There is a saying that you don't wrestle with pigs because you just get dirty and the pig loves it."

Part of the reason Wall Street executives won't go on the record about Trump is that they believe criticizing him will only drive his numbers higher. Americans continue to hold big banks in low regard following the financial crisis. And Trump's momentum is built on a generalized hostility to the political and corporate establishment.

Trump can rip into executive compensation in part because he built his own empire and brand and his Trump Organization is privately held, so he can't be accused of using shareholders' money to enrich himself, a cudgel often used to attack high executive pay at public companies. And establishment attacks would likely just make him stronger.

"Most people in the New York business community don't really like to speak publicly about politicians and especially not Trump, because he will just jump ugly all over them," said Kathryn Wylde, president and CEO of the New York City Partnership, a group that includes many of the city's top business leaders. "Trump has never really been part of the New York City business community or particularly engaged with the real estate community. There's certainly no close set of relations there. He's really a lone wolf. And a lot of these people thought Jeb Bush was a shoo-in and they are upset now because they have already thrown in with him and he is looking a little wilted."

Trump is not entirely without Wall Street support.

He has regularly praised Carl Icahn and said he would make the billionaire investor his first Treasury secretary. Icahn tweeted recently that he would accept the post. He did not respond to a request for comment on Trump. 
The frustration on Wall Street goes beyond just Trump's rise and staying power. The industry's other preferred candidate, Clinton, is also suffering under the populist wave, losing ground to independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a self-described socialist and outspoken Wall Street critic.

The industry began this election cycle confident that a GOP candidate like Bush would win, and offer some reprieve from populist anger. And if that didn't happen they would at least get Clinton, who has long and deep ties to the industry and is viewed as largely moderate on financial regulation.

Both Bush and Clinton have tacked populist with pledges to increase taxes on some wealthy investors. But they are still both establishment-friendly, with policies on trade, immigration and other issues that line up closely with elite opinion. And Wall Street does not view either candidate as likely to use the office to further stoke populist resentments.

"Neither of them are doing very well right now," said one Wall Street Democrat of Bush and Clinton. "Both Trump and Sanders have done a pretty great job tapping into this sense of frustration not just with Wall Street but with all of the establishment."

One person who might benefit from Trump's rise and Bush's current stagnation is Kasich, who worked for seven years at Lehman Brothers — though in an Ohio office — and is viewed as something of an establishment-populist hybrid given his folksy demeanor and heartland background.

"Kasich is a true businessman in contrast to Trump. He is the businessman candidate and he's pretty compelling in part because Jeb has taken such a beating," said Wylde. "I've set up a meet- and -greet with Governor Kasich and I've already got a sellout crowd." 

Wall Street's latest panic: Trump could win - POLITICO

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/09/donald-trump-2016-wall-street-reaction-213614

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