{UAH} Allan/Pojim/WBK: Why ‘Mbabazi MPs’ storm Besigye rallies
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Why 'Mbabazi MPs' storm Besigye rallies
As Kizza Besigye returned to Buganda sub-region this week, a legislator known to be a supporter of Amama Mbabazi stormed the FDC presidential candidate's rallies, causing confused drama.
Butambala MP Muhammad Muwanga Kivumbi 'gatecrashed' rallies in Butambala district on Monday, as he attempted to associate his parliamentary campaign with Besigye's.
However, an Observer analysis shows the incident is not isolated. Rather, three weeks to the presidential and parliamentary elections, Butambala seems to point to a trend of Besigye reasserting his influence as the leading challenger to President Museveni.
If the trend holds, it will be an interesting turnaround in fortunes for Besigye, who has come second to Museveni in the last three elections. Even before he was nominated in November, Besigye appeared rattled by the fallout from The Democratic Alliance (TDA) to find a joint opposition candidate.
He had already courted hostility by going back on his vow not to run again without far-reaching electoral reforms. And then he rejected pressure, even from sections of his party, to stand down and leave Mbabazi as the consensus TDA candidate.
As both he and Mbabazi prepared for nomination, it was argued that the 2016 elections would be a kind of primary to determine the real leader of Uganda's opposition – outside parliament. And key politicians formerly allied to Besigye either publically denounced him or quietly backed Mbabazi.
Among the latter was Muwanga Kivumbi. Now, not only did Kivumbi appear at Besigye's rallies, he mobilised people to attend them. Kivumbi's stance created confusion and sometimes tension, especially when Besigye attempted to introduce the official FDC candidates for parliamentary and local council seats in Butambala.
First, Besigye appeared startled when he arrived for his rally in Bulo sub-county to find a podium truck emblazoned with Kivumbi's posters. At some point, he wondered whether he had ended up at another candidate's rally. After some negotiations, Besigye decided to address the crowd from his own car.
He wondered what Kivumbi was doing at his rally and whether he had left. But when Besigye attempted to introduce the FDC candidate for Butambala MP, Moses Kasule, he was heckled by Kivumbi's supporters.
Kivumbi's allies had also smuggled some DP aspirants' names onto a list of FDC candidates that Besigye was to introduce to the voters. As the jostling continued, Kivumbi asked for the microphone but in vain.
Besigye then explained that he had been with Kivumbi in the struggle for a long time and would have no problem working with him again: "At the beginning, we wanted to move together but we didn't reach an agreement. Our friends from DP decided that they will go with Mbabazi. But there are those DPs who want to move with us, we welcome them so that we can move with them. But DP as an organisation is moving with Mbabazi. They should leave us in our lane."
In an interview with The Observer afterwards, Kivumbi said he supports all presidential candidates and would mobilise for all of them in his constituency.
"Even when Abed Bwanika visited here, I went there. I encouraged him. Besigye is a personal friend. That's why I have put in an input," he said.
Asked who he would eventually vote for, Kivumbi could only say he would vote an opposition presidential candidate.
SWITCHING SIDES?
Kivumbi is only the latest MP initially understood to be backing Mbabazi to storm a Besigye rally. Before him was Beatrice Anywar (the FDC MP who nominated Mbabazi); Betty Nambooze (Mukono municipality, DP), Latif Ssebaggala (Kawempe North, DP), Hussein Kyanjo (Makindye West, Justice Forum), and Kassiano Wadri (Terego).
Other politicians, such as Beti Kamya (parliamentary candidate for Lubaga North) have been conspicuously missing from Amama Mbabazi rallies. Although Kamya should be busy with her own campaigns, some analysts argue that she is being careful not to offend her Kampala supporters who could be pro-Besigye.
In Nansana, Wakiso district last Wednesday, there was a fist-fight before Besigye's arrival as FDC officials fought to keep pro-Mbabazi politicians from reaching the podium to speak. Police was called in to quell the fight.
After that scuffle, some sources within FDC intimate the party resolved never to allow the pro-Mbabazi politicians to their rallies, saying they were only attending to make political capital from Besigye.
However, Kivumbi seemed to have outsmarted the FDC officials. Initially, Kivumbi was nowhere to be seen and the only hint that he might make an appearance in Bulo was a green car painted with his pictures.
It was the FDC secretary for mobilisation, Ingrid Turinawe, who stepped in to cool tensions when she recognized Kivumbi's presence. Later, at a rally in Gombe, Kivumbi was blocked from climbing the podium. He argued with the FDC vice president for Buganda, Joyce Ssebugwawo, in vain.
But when Besigye arrived for the rally, people chorused pleas that he should allow Kivumbi to go to the podium. The FDC flag bearer granted their wish, but Kivumbi was once again denied a chance to speak to the crowd.
KAMPALA AND BEYOND
The shifting allegiances of parliamentary aspirants raise questions about their convictions. Many seem to be caught between their belief that Besigye should have given Mbabazi a chance to lead the anti-Museveni charge on the one hand – and the fact that Besigye retains popular appeal and they need to be seen to be with him lest they are voted out.
"I think Besigye has increasingly become a factor in this election," says Makerere University political scientist Sabiti Makara. "I think politicians are making calculations that if Museveni does not get the [above 50] per cent and there is a rerun, they should be on the right side of the thing."
Makara says that the shifting positions are because Mbabazi came with a "big bang" while some other people thought Besigye was "completely finished". Now, he says, not only has the anticipated sponsorship by Mbabazi not materialized, Besigye has shown that he is not finished yet.
The FDC spokesman Ssemujju Ibrahim Nganda told The Observer that Besigye's popularity and the trust people have in him mean he is the most credible vehicle for political change a pull factor for opposition candidates.
"I know people who went with Mbabazi may feel shy to say so but there is still time, because this is not a personal battle by Besigye or FDC. It is a national struggle," Ssemujju said.
A classic illustration of this is Nabilah Naggayi Sempala, the Kampala Woman MP running on the FDC ticket. After fraternizing with the Mbabazi camp, Naggayi dashed to be by Besigye as he was nominated a presidential candidate, taking senior party officials by surprise.
Sources have now told us that Naggayi's agents are among FDC hardliners swearing they will not tolerate pro-Mbabazi candidates when Besigye comes to Kampala.
According to one political observer, the fight to be with Besigye in Kampala could be fierce. And the police, otherwise accused of being biased in favour of NRM's Yoweri Museveni, could be called in to pacify FDC rallies.
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