{UAH} Allan/Pojim/WBK: Elections: how President Museveni won the North over

http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/42613-elections-how-president-museveni-won-the-north-over

how President Museveni won the North over

Written by Edward Ssekika

Created: 15 February 2016

The three main presidential candidates capped their campaigns in northern Uganda, a voting block of two million voters, with rallies that drew adoring crowds.

The incumbent and NRM candidate, Yoweri Museveni, FDC's Kizza Besigye and Independent Amama Mbabazi all addressed mammoth crowds in West Nile, Acholi and Lango sub-regions.

But three days to the presidential and parliamentary elections, one question remains: who will win northern Uganda?

In 2001 and 2006, Besigye won in Acholi, Lango and West Nile, until his dominance was eroded by Museveni in 2011. In 2006, Besigye, still the main challenger to Museveni, won convincingly in the Acholi districts of Gulu, 82%, Kitgum, 75% and 77% in Pader.

But in 2011, Besigye got his first taste of defeat. He polled only 20% of the vote in Gulu, 15% in Kitgum and 14% in Pader.

Museveni campaigns in Arua

In West Nile in 2006, Besigye won in all the districts of Arua, Adjumani, Nebbi, Moyo, Koboko and Yumbe by 65% of all votes cast, but interestingly in 2011, he lost in all those districts to Museveni.

In 2011, Museveni took the region with 59% of votes cast, while Besigye got 40%. In total, Museveni got 285,395 votes in the region, while Besigye polled 160,247.

But will Museveni maintain his firm grip on the north this time round?

From 2011 to date, Museveni and the ruling NRM have positioned themselves favorably to win in northern Uganda again through implementing several projects.

After the 2011 election, Musev- eni designed projects particularly to rehabilitate northern Uganda. Analysts attributed Besigye's loss in northern in 2011 to the end of the Joseph Kony-led LRA insurgency and, therefore a return of a semblance of peace.

Writing in The Observer recently, Prof Ogenga Latigo, the former Agago MP and Leader of Opposition in Parliament, argued that the LRA war was the main campaign issue for the opposition in the north.
"In the run-up to 2011, the core wish of the Acholi for the peaceful resolution of the LRA war came to pass, and with it went our key political demand and campaign agenda. No doubt, ending the war was a factor in the electoral shift witnessed in the north in 2011," he wrote.

The war had driven thousands of people from their homes into Internally-displaced persons camps (IDPs).

Since his 2011 victory, Museveni has strategically designed and executed 'war recovery' programmes, through the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund, (NUSAF) II and the Peace, Recovery and Development Plan (PRDP II). These efforts, NRM predicts, are likely to entrench the president's hold on the north.

PROJECTS

NUSAF and PRDP are affirmative action programmes meant to rehabilitate northern Uganda, after two decades of the LRA war. According to NRM's manifesto, under NUSAF I, government boasts of having constructed 2,693 classrooms and 1,221 teachers' houses and supplied 7,902 desks and sunk 1,074 boreholes.

It has also distributed a total of 36,631 heifers, 8,657 bulls and 22,748 oxen procured and distributed in the north. Under NUSAF II that runs from 2010-2015, several similar projects have been undertaken.

Government also boasts of having facilitated the return of Internally-displaced persons (IDPs) to their ancestral homes. In addition, it has also provided "a resettlement package" to some returnees.

For instance, in the manifesto, Museveni boasts of having distributed more than 67,000 iron sheets, several ox ploughs and heifers in Lango. Government also constructed 54 houses for traditional chiefs in Acholi.

ROADS, ELECTRICITY

For many years, Arua, the main town in West Nile, was not connected to the national electricity grid and was relying on a generator – thermal energy operated by Wenreco. Thermal energy affected much business, because it was being rationed.

However, in 2012, the 3.5 megawatts Nyagak hydro power dam was switched on and Arua is now connected to the national grid. West Nile now has power throughout the day and night.

To boost education, government in 2012 set up a public university – Muni University in West Nile. Gulu already has a public university – Gulu University - meaning that students no longer need to travel to Kampala for university education.

Museveni has made inroads in building roads. Since 2011, government has undertaken the construction and rehabilita- tion of several roads in northern Uganda.

For instance, since 2011, government has constructed roads like; Gulu-Atiak (74 kilo- meters), Atiak – Numuli (37 kilo- meters), Vurra – Arua –Koboko – Oraba (92 kilometers), Olwiyo – Gulu (70 kilometers), Acholi Bur – Musingo (96 kilometers), Pakwach – Nebbi, Kamdini – Gulu and Soroti – Dokolo – Lira road (123 kilometers).

While campaigning in northern Uganda, Museveni also pledged to construct more roads, like Koboko- Yumbe road as fast as possible. Some of the roads are fully completed and commissioned while other construction works are still ongoing. While campaigning in Arua, Museveni talked gleefully about his road project.
"I used to have two debts to West-Nile. One was a tarmac road from Kampala to Oraba, which I have fully paid," Yoweri Museveni said.

All these could keep mainly the rural vote in his favour. Government has also constructed modern markets in Lira and Gulu that are at the level of Wandegeya market.

OPPOSITION NOT COHESIVE

In addition to several infrastructure and other projects, government has executed in northern Uganda, another key issue that might work in Museveni's favour is an opposition that is not cohesive. In Acholi sub-region, the opposition is tearing itself apart in Kitgum district, Aswa county in Gulu and other places.

In West Nile, for example, there is lack of cohesion within the opposition, mainly in FDC. Bernard Atiku, the Ayivu constituency MP in Arua district, has accused his Terego county counterpart and Arua Woman MP Christine Abia of sidelining him within the party.

This, he claimed, forced him to run as an independent. He has since openly campaigned for the NRM and President Museveni.

When Besigye was in Arua, Atiku told NBS, a local television station, that in addition to party conflicts, he had also seen the ground tilt more towards NRM and Museveni.

A divided opposition, coupled with peace and security and several infrastructure projects could tilt the northern Uganda vote in favour of president for a second time.

ssekika@observer.ug

Elections: how President Museveni won the North over

http://www.observer.ug/news-headlines/42613-elections-how-president-museveni-won-the-north-over

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