{UAH} Allan/Pojim/WBK: Gunfire in Gulu sends shivers down the spine of Ugandans - Comment

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/OpEd/comment/Gunfire-in-Gulu-sends-shivers-down-the-spine-of-Ugandans-/-/434750/3256330/-/4gw7gxz/-/index.html

Gunfire in Gulu sends shivers down the spine of Ugandans

Despite its vaunted stability or, if you like, "relative stability," over the past 30 years, Uganda does get really scary sometimes.

The basis of much of this scariness is the constant bickering between President Yoweri Museveni and his party, the National Resistance Movement on the one hand and, on the other, his political rivals in the opposition and the organisations they lead.

Periods leading up to presidential election campaigns, the campaigns themselves, and the immediate aftermath, are particularly notable for the fear they instil in peace loving Ugandans.

People who know President Museveni personally tend to portray him as difficult to anger, and also as very patient. Stories are told, for example, of his sitting repeatedly through long hours of meetings with peasants and assorted supplicants who keep repeating themselves, without showing the slightest sign of irritation or boredom.

His ability to keep calm and smile, even joke his way through interviews with insolent, usually Western, journalists is also remarked upon by those who have watched him at close range over the years.

But somehow this Museveni tends to disappear when it comes to dealing with political opponents and their followers, especially when they engage in activities he deems to be threatening to Uganda's "hard-earned peace" – earned thanks to his leadership.

One episode of this personality change occurred during the recent presidential campaigns when opposition elements were reported to have attacked and beaten his supporters. He exploded with rage.

During a specially convened press conference, he said the opposition supporters had made a "grave mistake" when they "put your hands in the anus of a leopard." Apparently they too were beaten. I don't know whether this is true or not, but they at least achieved the apparently unusual feat of getting him to lose his cool.

All that, however, is relatively minor compared with what happened some days ago. It all began with a rumour about prolonged firing of weapons in a town in the north of the country.

The town was Gulu. Yes, Gulu, which became famous because of the insurgency in the surrounding countryside by the Lord's Resistance Army, the forced mass relocation of civilians from their homes into camps to deny the LRA potential recruits, and the worldwide humanitarian and other campaigning that followed.

Gunfire is nothing new to Ugandans. So it is likely many would have disregarded the incident if the army, the police and other official organs had not embarked on trying to put a spin to it, which spin only generated questions about what they were trying to communicate, and what they were trying to hide.

Well, eventually they stated that people involved in subversive activities, a few dozen according to the government and hundreds according to opposition activists, had been picked up and were helping the law enforcement organs with their investigations.

They included active-duty and retired army officers. This, in a country that many have long believed had become immune to such things, thanks to, among other things, a "politicised army" that even enjoys representation in parliament. And so the question must be asked: What is going on?

There are many ways one could speculate about it. It seems some people have come to the conclusion that armed insurrection is the only viable route left to bring about a change in national leadership.

And they seem to have decided to mimic President Museveni himself who, after concluding that the late Milton Obote and his party the Uganda People's Congress had stolen the election in 1980, decided, together with fellow believers, that war was the answer.

They could have opted to follow the example of the Democratic Party, which chose to take the political route. That proved futile. The ruling UPC and its uniformed allies were in no mood to make life easy for the opposition in and outside parliament. They wanted to occupy all the space, leaving none to those who dared want to also run the country one day.

Museveni is not Obote and the NRM is not UPC, of course. However, there seem to be grounds for arguing that aspects of how they seek to keep the political opposition weak, disorganised, demoralised, and unable to put up a credible bid for power, are playing into the hands of those who would argue that there is only one route left: Violence.

There is no doubt that President Museveni retains much residual popularity, especially among the rural population. Those are the people who would hide insurgents in their midst. So, in this case, there is little chance they will. For as long as these circumstances persist, any insurgency is doomed at birth.

The government can react by continuing to stifle a restive opposition, frustrate its supporters, and thereby feed discontent. It is a scary idea. Whose interest would it serve in the long term?

Frederick Golooba-Mutebi is a Kampala- and Kigali-based researcher and writer on politics and public affairs. E-mail: fgmutebi@yahoo.com

Gunfire in Gulu sends shivers down the spine of Ugandans - Comment

http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/OpEd/comment/Gunfire-in-Gulu-sends-shivers-down-the-spine-of-Ugandans-/-/434750/3256330/-/4gw7gxz/-/index.html

Sent from my BlackBerry 10 smartphone.