{UAH} Allan/Pojim/WBK: Pound plummets on first EU referendum results – POLITICO

http://www.politico.eu/article/polls-close-in-brexit-referendum-eu-referndum-cameron-leave-remain/

Pound plummets on first EU referendum results – POLITICO

Staff count ballot papers at the Glasgow count centre | Robert Perry/AFP via Getty IMages

Polls gave Remain the lead but early results suggest a strong Leave vote.

By

Paul Dallison

6/23/16, 11:06 PM CET

Updated 6/24/16, 2:06 AM CET

As the first results in the U.K.'s EU referendum came in early Friday morning, predictions of an extremely close race appeared to be confirmed.

There were early cheers for the Remain camp, with two on-the-day polls putting Remain ahead. YouGov gave Remain 52 percent and Leave 48 percent, and Ipsos/MORI put Remain on 54 percent and Leave on 46 percent. Those polls came out shortly after voting closed at 10 p.m local time.

Early on, UKIP's Nigel Farage told Sky that "Remain will edge it." Farage, who is not affiliated with the official Leave campaign, later changed his stance. He told supporters that was "not conceding this" and said the government's decision to extend the voting registration deadline by 48 hours may have been the difference between the two sides. That decision taken because the registration website crashed on the original deadline day.

The first declaration came from Gibraltar, where turnout was 84 percent. It was, as expected, a big win for Remain, with 19,322 votes to stay in the EU, and 823 votes to Leave.

The first English result came from Newcastle-upon-Tyne, which was just in favor of Remain, with 65,404 votes to 63,598 for Leave. Experts had predicted a much larger victory for Remain.

Shortly after, Sunderland declared. Always likely to be a strong Leave vote, the gap was wider than expected, with Leave on 82,394 votes and Remain on 51,930.

The two English results played havoc with the financial markets, sending sterling plummeting. It fell 6 percent on the back of the Newcastle and Sunderland results, a fall described by the BBC as not seen since the financial crisis in 2008.

Just after polls closed, a letter was delivered to Prime Minister David Cameron signed by 84 pro-Leave Tory MPs, including Boris Johnson. It called on Cameron to stay in office no matter the result of the referendum.

The pound hit a 2016 high shortly after polls closed. Over the past week stock markets and currency trading suggested that investors were increasingly confident that Britain would stay in the EU.

In or out?

British voters faced a single question Thursday: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

There were two boxes on the ballot paper, "Remain" and "Leave."

A record 46,499,537 people were entitled to take part, according to provisional figures from the Electoral Commission, which oversees British elections. Whichever side gets more than half of the votes will have won.

The result will be seismic, no matter which way it goes. A vote for Leave and divorce proceedings will begin that are set to last two years — although it took a little over two years to untangleGreenland from the EU in the early 1980s, and it has a population of just 55,000.

A vote for Remain and Prime Minister David Cameron will have a smile on his face when he addresses the world from outside Number 10. He will say that there will not be another such referendum (no matter how close the result) and pledge to work closely with those who have been on the opposing side these past four months. He will also travel to Brussels for next week's summit of EU leaders able to look Merkel, Hollande et al in the eye rather than being snuck in through through the back door.

The vote capped months of political drama, intrigue and surprises. It started off calmly enough but soon became nasty, so nasty that it took a tragic event — the killing of Labour MP Jo Cox — to alter the course of the fight, forcing a halt to the campaigns and a softening of the rhetoric.

The library in Birstall, West Yorkshire, where Cox was shot and stabbed, was being used as a polling station Thursday and hosted a lunchtime vigil for the murdered politician.

In London, two polling stations had to be moved as the equivalent of a month's worth of rain fell through the night into Thursday morning. The rain did not appear to have deterred voters, many of whom faced long waits to cast their ballot.

The result won't be known until "breakfast time" Friday, according to the Electoral Commission — if you have your breakfast at 6 a.m. Then, all eyes will be on Jenny Watson, the chief counting officer for the referendum, who will announce the result from Manchester Town Hall.

This is only the third nationwide referendum in British history. The last one took place five years ago, when voters rejected an attempt to change the way MPs are elected. The first one was in 1975, when voters were asked if the U..K should continue to be a member of what was then the European Economic Community.

However, many Brits still don't know what they are voting about. A BMG poll for the Electoral Reform Society found that just 33 percent of respondents felt "well" or "very well" informed about the EU referendum — although that figure was up from 16 percent when the campaign started in February — 39 percent said their knowledge about the issue was "about average;" 20 percent said they were "poorly informed;" and 8 percent were "very poorly informed."

To help people make up their minds, the big hitters made their final pleas Wednesday.
Cameron continued with his main campaign theme: that to leave would damage the British economy, saying: "It is a fact that our economy will be weaker if we leave and stronger if we stay … Put jobs first, put the economy first."

He was joined on the stump by his predecessor in Downing Street, Gordon Brown, who told voters: "This is not the Britain I know, this is not the Britain I love. The Britain I know is better than the Britain of these debates, of insults, of posters."

Leave was also staying on well-worn ground by focusing the debate on immigration. Former London mayor Boris Johnson's final plea for support was:"Democracy is vital but it only works when you can kick the buggers out when they make a mistake. If we vote to leave we can take back control of our democracy and our immigration policy."

And Nigel Farage was his usual blunt self, saying: "Let's stop pretending what this European project is: they have an anthem, they are building an army, they have already got their own police force, and of course they have got a flag. At the end of the day … when people vote they have to make a decision — which flag is theirs?"

Cameron's gamble

Few people, Cameron included, thought he would have to make good on his 2013 promise to hold an In/Out referendum on EU membership if the Tories won an outright majority in the last general election. He made the pledge in response to the rise of the United Kingdom Independence Party and clamor from within his own party to settle a battle that had raged for decades over Britain's place in Europe. "It is time for the British people to have their say. It is time to settle this European question in British politics," Cameron said at the time.

Once the Tories' surprise victory in the May 2015 general election was confirmed, it was time for Cameron to make on his pledge. During the next six months he toured EU capitals drumming up support for his planned renegotiation of Britain's membership of the bloc. By February, he had concluded the negotiations and unveiled what he had achieved — most controversially a so-called emergency brake on in-work benefits for EU migrants — and the campaign was on.

Cameron's future, and that of the future direction of the Conservative Party, rests on this decision. Win and his legacy is two terms in office — albeit one of those in coalition with the Liberal Democrats — and a 2-0 record in referendums; keeping the Scots in the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom in the EU. Lose and he is the man who bet the house on Remain and lost everything. It would take just 50 Tory MPs to force a confidence vote in his leadership.

As Cameron has already said he won't stand for a third term in office, the best he could hope for would being forced into naming the date of his departure (an ignominy suffered by Tony Blair) and being a lame — if not sitting — duck for the remainder of his time in Downing Street.

The ramifications for the Tories go much wider than Cameron. For a long time it has been seen as a three-horse as to who will step into Cameron's shoes: George Osborne, Theresa May, Boris Johnson. For many political commentators, Osborne has already been unseated by his mount after threatening a "punishment" budget in the event of a Leave vote.

Johnson's future is tied to the referendum result. Win and he would be the hot favorite for the top job. Lose and he looks even more foolish than his critics claim he is at the best of times.

That leaves May, whose relative silence looks to have been a clever move. Widely predicted to back Leave, she went the other way but was hardly glowing in her praise for the EU. Since then, she's been missing in action.

Whatever happens Friday morning, the upheaval is not over. Far from it.

Click here for POLITICO's EU referendum live blog.

Pound plummets on first EU referendum results – POLITICO

http://www.politico.eu/article/polls-close-in-brexit-referendum-eu-referndum-cameron-leave-remain/

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