{UAH} Allan/Pojim/WBK: 3 polls: Clinton maintains advantage over Trump - POLITICO

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/3-polls-clinton-maintains-advantage-over-trump-225671

3 polls: Clinton maintains advantage over Trump

Clinton has a lead over Trump by 4, 5 and 7 points. | AP Photo

Hillary Clinton is maintaining a distinct advantage headed into the two national party conventions this month, according to three national polls out Sunday morning.

The surveys, timed for release on the Sunday morning public-affairs programs, all show Clinton with a single-digit lead, from 4 to 7 points.

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An ABC News/Washington Post poll give Clinton a 4-point advantage among registered voters, 47 percent to 43 percent. Two percent of voters said they prefer another candidate, 6 percent would vote for neither Clinton nor Donald Trump, and 2 percent offered no opinion. That's much closer than Clinton's 12-point lead in June — though that was one of her best polls since both locked down their parties' respective nominations.

Clinton's lead is larger in a CNN/ORC International poll: 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent. Four percent volunteered that they would vote for another candidate, 4 percent wouldn't vote for either candidate and 1 percent had no opinion.

Unlike the ABC News/Washington Post poll, the CNN/ORC survey represents a slight uptick for Clinton from its mid-June poll, which showed Clinton leading by 5 points.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll largely splits the difference: Clinton leads by 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent, with a significant percentage, 8 percent, saying they prefer neither candidate. Another 5 percent picked another candidate or were undecided.

That is unchanged from the June NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, which also showed Clinton with a 5-point lead.

Taken together, the pre-convention polls give Clinton a lead that has declined only slightly through a tumultuous July that began with FBI Director James Comey accusing Clinton of being "extremely careless" with her use of a private email server while at the State Department, though Comey recommended no charges. Last week, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed the race tied, 39 percent to 39 percent. Each of the polls out Sunday was conducted simultaneously with the CBS News/New York Times poll or more recently — suggesting that the tied result was at the lower limit of statistical confidence for Clinton or the effect of Comey's statement is leveling off.

The new poll results give Clinton a larger lead than the overall averages from RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster. But those averages are being influenced by a survey from Rasmussen Reports — the automated phone pollster with a demonstrated bias toward GOP candidates — which gives Trump a 7-point lead, unlike anything else in the public polling. The polls out Sunday were conducted around the same time as the Rasmussen poll.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted July 11-14, surveying 816 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The CNN/ORC poll was conducted July 13-16, surveying 872 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll was conducted July 9-13, surveying 1,000 registered voters. That survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

3 polls: Clinton maintains advantage over Trump - POLITICO

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/3-polls-clinton-maintains-advantage-over-trump-225671

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