{UAH} M7's OIL NUMBERS DON'T SEEM TO ADD UP

During the NRM celebrations 2 days ago, M7 stated that We must pump our oil from the ground...to implement these projects, government has undertaken a 10℅ cut on all sector budgets to fund these projects. Let's not have arguments on this[...]When oil comes out, this begging will stop. We shall have our own totally independent financial base. Even when oil price is down, at $50 per barrel, we shall have an additional $2.5b new money and when it improves, we shall have at least $4b".

But his numbers don't seem to hold up under scrutiny:

Uganda is expected to produce about 140k barrels per day x $50=$7m per day. 7m x 5=$35 per week. 35 x 51 weeks=$1.785bn GROSS profit. Uganda owns 40% of the 1.785=$714m. But Uganda has to contribute 40% of the operating costs. So Uganda NET profit must be less than 500m...which takes us to coffee territory (Uganda got $403m from coffee in 2015)!  

So WHERE does M7 get his numbers of $2.5bn?                      

And some people say that for new oil wells, profits start at around $90 per barrel. So it might be interesting to watch how m7 would turn a profit at $50 per barrel...assuming that buyers don't insist that he delivers the oil to a port...which means m7 would have to pay transit via the pipeline.

Then there is always "clear and present danger" that the "wealth creators" will definitely steal some of the oil money.  

thanks

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