{UAH} Why calling for a ceasefire in South Sudan can be a bad idea

BY ALY VERJEE

APRIL 12, 2017

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Even a seemingly uncontroversial demand can have complex, and potentially adverse, implications.

Violence continues across South Sudan despite President Salva Kiir's announcement of a ceasefire. Credit: UNMISS.

On 23 March, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, speaking to the United Nations Security Council, declared: "There can be no real dialogue for as long as South Sudan is ravaged by fighting."

"All parties must respect an immediate cessation of hostilities," he said. "As President, Salva Kiir is responsible for taking the first step – and others must follow".

In his own Security Council remarks, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made a similar call for an immediate cessation of hostilities.

Two days later, the South Sudanese government duly responded. At a meeting of regional leaders in Nairobi, Kiir declared that his government was to "announce a unilateral ceasefire and grant amnesty to those that renounced violence".

The governments of Norway, the UK and US promptly welcomed the move, expressing their "strong support" for the "recent calls on all armed parties, including the Government of South Sudan, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition, and other armed groups, to commit to a ceasefire."

However, despite Kiir's announcement and all its international backing, violence continues across South Sudan. From Pajok in the far south to Wau in the northwest, the proclamation of a national ceasefire has done little to stop civilian populations being indiscriminately targeted, leading to widespread misery and further displacements.

Fragmented fighting

The merits of calling for a ceasefire in South Sudan seem unquestionable. The war that has engulfed the country has left 5.8 million people in need of emergency humanitarian assistance, of whom 1.9 million are internally displaced.

[As thousands flee South Sudan every day, donors must shell out more than just hollow promises]

However, an end to hostilities is no easy feat. And, crucially, such an outcome cannot be achieved without the slow and deliberate work of convincing those fighting – at the level of individual commanders and officers – that it is in their interests to stop. Without this preparatory work, simply lobbying for the declaration of a ceasefire is at best ineffectual and at worst counterproductive.

Understanding why this is the case requires an appreciation of the deeply fragmented nature of South Sudan's conflict dynamics. Back in 2014, the government's armed opponents – most of whom eventually identified as the SPLM-in-Opposition – had a degree of cohesion, even if it was fractious, riven by personal rivalries, and struggling to maintain a common political umbrella. But today, that cohesion is almost entirely absent.

Today's armed opposition is fragmented. There are third, fourth and fifth groups that have little affinity for the SPLM-in-Opposition. Even within what remains of the movement loyal to former vice president Riek Machar, the political and military leadership is disconnected.

[Down but not out: What Machar's absence means for South Sudan's peace process]

This means that even if Machar were to follow Kiir's lead in declaring a ceasefire, the fighting would not end. Instead, given the state of fragmentation of armed groups, obtaining a ceasefire today would require the consent and acceptance of all the relevant individual commanders and factions. For this strategy to succeed, these commanders would need to be persuaded that local ceasefires – involving the specific armed groups, government forces and allied militias of that area – could be durable despite the

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 individuals, the military or otherwise, is to put the people in charge  - Capt. Thomas. Sankara {RIP} '1949-1987

 *"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent

revolution inevitable"**…  *J.F Kennedy

 

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