{UAH} EDRIS KIGGUNDU CAUTIONS BOBI'S SUPPORTERS

EDRIS KIGGUNDU CAUTIONS BOBI'S SUPPORTERS

In the run up to the 2016 elections, the mainstream media (of which I was part) fell for the "Mbabazi rising, Besigye falling" narrative. We fed it to the readers/viewers repeatedly and in the end we were left with egg on our face. As we prepare to cover the 2021 elections and the narratives that are likely to emerge, we should not only do a much thorough job in examining them, we should exercise caution in reaching certain conclusions.

#One of the lessons I learnt in 2016. I covered the 2016 elections and moved to every corner of this country (I also covered the 2006 and 2011 elections) and when your work rotates around Kampala, Wakiso and Mukono, the political picture you get is totally different from what happens in other parts of the country. That is why when we are making political analysis based on sentiments of people in urban and peri-urban areas, we should be very careful. n 2006, I spent two days in Kihiihi, Kanungu (Mbabazi's home area), and even before talking to opinion leaders and locals there, it was clear Mbabazi could not win his district. He was clearly detached from the people even when they knew him. In Rushere (Kiruhuura) and Rukungiri town, you didn't need a rocket scientist to tell you that Museveni and Besigye would win there respectively in those areas. (Once I spent four days in Ntungamo collecting information about Maj Gen Muntu for a profile for The Observer when he had just become FDC president, I was shocked that many people there did not know him.

But that is besides the point. My colleague Sadab Kitatta, moved with Amama Mbabazi the entire country and he will tell you how shocked he was that in some parts of the country, people did not know who Mbabazi was. In fact, I have never heard Sadab Kitatta, say Mbabazi was rigged out of the election because he knows what happened. As the media, we fell for "the Mbabazi rising, Besigye falling" narrative because we did not look for the facts but easily fell for street gossip that was being peddled by self-styled analysts on FM stations in Kampala. None of us for instance verified claims that were being made that Mbabazi would split the Kigezi vote (even when Go Forward could not field more than 50 candidates in the sub region. I covered Besigye in 2006 and 2011 and Museveni in 2016, I can say that they are the most entrenched politicians in Uganda for two reasons: First, they have been the main actors on the political scene longer than their rivals so they have the historical advantage. But secondly, both of them have tried to keep in touch with their political base and appeal to them in a consistent manner. You cannot doubt Museveni when he says he is out to destroy the opposition so that he can entrench himself in power (he will beat opponents, jail them or buy them off). Neither can you doubt Besigye when he tells you he is opposed to the Museveni Junta. The same cannot be said of many politicians in this country. Their words usually do not match their actions. Enough said!

----Edris Kiggundu

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*Abbey Kibirige  Semuwemba*

Stalk my blog at: http://semuwemba.worldpress.com

"Men in authority will always think that criticism of their policies is dangerous. They will always equate their policies with patriotism, and find criticism subversive." - Henry Steele Commager 1902-98

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