Africa Insiders' Newsletter #85  | Malian soldiers, assigned to Battalion Autonomes des Forces Speciales conduct close combat battle drills in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Photo by USAFRICOM | | The essentials: At least 53 Malian soldiers were killed by an attack on a military camp near Indelimane in northern Mali. The attack was claimed by the so-called Islamic state and is emblematic for the deterioration of security in Mali and the Sahel in general.
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The context: More than 1600 people were killed in Mali this year, already on track to beat the more than 1700 violent political murders and casualties from fighting last year. This latest attack, claimed by the local branch of the so-called Islamic State, is the latest in a series of well-planned and coordinated attacks by different groups on Malian military outposts. These attacks, which are reminiscent of similar tactics by insurgents in Somalia and Nigeria, rely on good intelligence, as well as the ability to quickly assemble and after the attack disperse a considerable force. French and US planes and drones rule the sky in the Sahel and would punish any prolonged gathering of fighters severely.
But while attacks like that in Indelimane are rightfully grabbing the headlines, they are only part of the larger problem Mali and other Sahelian states face. Violence has spread well beyond the relatively narrow conflict that pits islamists and the Malian army and its international and local allies against each other. The majority of deaths and displacements is due to increasing violence on a local level, where neighbouring communities are responding to insecurity and the harmful neglect by the state by standing up militias and self-defense groups. Inevitably, this militarisation leads to a violent expression of long-standing grievances, although the elites responsible for not addressing these grievances are seldom those in the line of fire.
The international community and especially France have so far not found an answer to the deterioration of the situation. The international intervention and local elites in Mali and the Sahel in general interpret the crisis as an anomaly, fundamentally an outcome of the collapse of Libya in 2011, which interacted in an unfortunate way with some fault-lines in Mali specifically. Unfortunately, the events of 2011 and 2012 were more of a catalyst, rather than a cause of the current crisis. People in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and other countries are now paying the bill for decades of willful mismanagement by local elites, who benefited from an almost criminal hear no evil, do no evil approach of the international community.
The silver lining: The rising body count despite increasing investments by the international community will require a reckoning at some point. The Malian government, France and their allies will have to face the fact that their strategy is not working, which would open the door to an alternative approach.
The future: Unfortunately, the alternative is unlikely to include a fundamental rethinking of the relationship between local elites, Sahelian societies and the international community. International actors are more likely to try and cut their losses at some point, forcing the Sahel to undergo potentially years more of painful conflict with an uncertain outcome. . | | Get the full Africa Insiders Newsletter, decide the price yourself! We hope you enjoyed this Free Edition of the Africa Insiders, but it is only a taste of the full experience. This week, the Full Edition also covered: - Follow up: In South Sudan, a deadline looms
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