{UAH} How Mugisha Muntu Swallowed Museveni Bait

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How Mugisha Muntu Swallowed Museveni Bait
Under Mugisha Muntu, FDC became like a household where family members sought counsel from a hateful neighbour to resolve internal conflicts. That neighbour is Museveni.

When Kizza Besigye emerged on the political scene in 2000, he posed the greatest headache to Museveni, who had found comfort in the sectarian support in Western Uganda. When he came to power in 1986, Museveni faced partial opposition in some parts of central Uganda (Buganda) and stiff resistance in Eastern and Northern Uganda, but enjoyed undivided support in Western Uganda. All of a sudden, Dr Kizza Besigye emerged from Museveni's own backyard in South Western Uganda and, at once, shook the regime from the core, throwing Museveni off balance. Like a wounded lion, Museveni was forced to resort to violence and massive rigging during the 2001 elections, and the ensuing harassment forced Besigye to a life in exile.

On the heels of the 2005 amendment of the Constitution, Gen Muntu and other strong NRA/M ideologues broke ranks with Museveni to form the Parliamentary Advocacy Forum (PAFO) which eventually merged with Besigye's Reform Agenda (RA) to form the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), adding an injury to a previously wounded Museveni. Besigye was still in exile in South Africa at the time. To add salt to Museveni's deepening wound, he founders of the FDC invited Besigye to return and lead the newly formed political party, which generated such a momentum that Museveni had no choice but to have Besigye incarcerated for most of the campaign period. Many people believe that Besigye won the 2006 elections.

As he vowed not to return to exile, Besigye would be an enduring headache. In spite of numerous arrests, Besigye remained defiant, which showed many people that it was possible to challenge Museveni at any cost. During the 2011 Walk to Work protests, Besigye was tortured to near death but still returned to embark on a stirring campaign. In 2012, Museveni breathed a sigh of relief when Besigye stepped down as FDC President and handed over to Gen. Mugisha Muntu. This time, Museveni could take a rest from a stiff challenge by this stubborn Mukiga - Besigye.

In 2015, it was another shock when the FDC delegates again elected Besigye to carry the party flag as Presidential Candidate. The man from Rukungiri electrified the campaign as supporters offered him money and other gifts as he conducted massive rallies countrywide. While the EC declared Museveni winner, the 2016 election results still remain disputed as Besigye declared himself winner and government has never completed trying him for the case of treason with which he was charged.
After he was sworn-in as President, Museveni swore that there would be no opposition by the time of the next elections in 2021. No one understood how he would achieve this. Constant harassment of opposition leaders and rigging of elections had totally tainted his image, yet opposition to his stranglehold was growing more and more, courtesy of Besigye's defiance. Therefore, he had to change strategy: recruit internally within FDC and stir-up an internal revolt. Like Andrew Mwenda says, Museveni is corrupt and dictatorial but he should remain in power until Besigye or Bobi Wine cannot take over. Museveni has managed to shift attention from himself to Besigye i.e. people who wish him to leave power should first protect him from Besigye.

The golden opportunity came during election of the new FDC President. There were clear signs of a hidden hand within FDC elections and the NRM was very interested in the results. Police disrupted many campaign gatherings of one of the candidates (Patrick Amuriat) but allowed Gen Muntu to campaign freely. The culture in Uganda is that incumbents tend to win elections and many in FDC, including party MPs, supported Mugisha Muntu on that understanding. It was shocking therefore that he lost the elections, which all sides believed was a clean process.

Either way, Museveni was happy. If Muntu had won, Besigye would have no place in the party since the candidate he preferred (Amuriat) would have lost. When Muntu lost, it was another opportunity to foment disagreement and subsequent split of the party which happened. Soon after the elections, Gen Muntu embarked on nationwide consultations. During the just ended campaigns, Muntu's camp had been struggling financially but soon after the elections, with clear signs that he would form a breakaway, he got many donors to fund his nationwide consultations. The trap got tighter here.

Police which characteristically disperses gatherings of opposition politicians could not interfere with Muntu's meetings. For instance, Besigye, Amama Mbabazi, Mao, Bobi Wine, Amuriat would not and cannot be allowed to hold meetings but Muntu was/is always ignored. Teargas and gunshots are the regular menu for those Museveni believes can overthrow him. In Muntu's case, the regime provided security and other incentives including backdoor funding in order to increase chances of breaking up the party. It is believed that Gen Muntu would never accept any form of support from Museveni and would not entertain it, but if any of his backers offered resources, he could not detect the source.

Museveni hates Besigye along with FDC. Without definite success, he has used force and violence to annihilate the party that gives Besigye a platform. He has strategically fished out leaders to weaken it but it rebounds each time. The recent strategy triggered enormous defections, following Muntu's exit. If it works, Museveni will have managed to drive the last nail in the coffin of the FDC. 

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"When a man is stung by a bee, he doesn't set off to destroy all beehives"

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