{UAH} Who will win the 2021 youth vote

Who will win the 2021 youth vote

By Umaru Kashaka

Added 19th November 2020 12:30 PM

Electoral Commission (EC) statistics show that the number of registered voters for 2021 elections is 17,658,527. Of this, 67% are youth aged 18-35. Young people form a substantial segment of the voting population for the forthcoming general elections, which means they have the power to determine the outcome.

Gladys Mbabazi, the presiding officer, counting voters who were lining up behind their candidate during the youth chairperson elections in Sendawula zone, Rubaga division in Kampala district on August 17. Photo by Lawrence Mulondo

ELECTION WATCH 

Over 72% of registered voters are youthful, aged between 18 and 40 years. Analysts say this means that the extent to which they participate in the upcoming elections will impact on the general outlook of the process and outcome.

Crispin Kaheru, the former co-ordinator of the Citizens' Coalition for Electoral Democracy in Uganda, opines that the number of young people contesting for elective positions has dramatically risen compared to the past elections, more specifically those of 2011 and 2016.

He says candidates running for parliamentary seats, aged between 18 and 35, have increased by over 30% compared to the 2016 general elections.

"That is exponential growth. You can tell that most of the young candidates' policy platforms are oriented towards building more inclusive (new) communities that pay attention to the needs of the youth, Kaheru, now an electoral analyst, says.

He argues that a considerable segment of young people are either unemployed or underemployed. The 2017 National Labour Force Survey report noted that the majority of Ugandan youth, aged 18-30 years, are either unemployed or employed in the informal sector.

Less than 15% of these youth, the report adds, have formal jobs.

As such, Kaheru says the general national economic constraints, worsened by COVID-19, make living hand to mouth the only alternative in the absence of sustained structured government efforts to address unemployment.

"So, within the context of highly monetised elections, with rampant voter buying and opportunism, the young people are likely to be left vulnerable to manipulation by the highest bidder in the field. While the young people vote in large numbers, this may not guarantee the election of the candidate who presents the most impressive policy platform," he contends.

"On the other hand, we may want to interrogate the numbers of prospective good leaders among the young people who stay away from running for political offices due to their inability to facilitate the expensive campaigns," he adds.

Demographic shift

The Minister of Gender, Labour and Social Development, Frank Tumwebaze, says no doubt there are many young voters coming on board.

He also concurs that these social demographics will affect the voting patterns in one way or another.

"But the advantage with this demographic shift is that many of the young people are educated and have access to a lot of information.

They are critical and logical enough to differentiate between political contenders who are merely selling empty rhetoric and those with a record to trust. And no one beats the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and its presidential candidate Yoweri Museveni on this record," he says.

The 45-year-old minister argues that it is not enough for one to say that "I am young, so vote me."

"It calls for more than just your age. It calls for articulation of what you stand for and what you have to offer that will sound believable in as far as guaranteeing the present and future livelihoods of the voters is concerned. It is not enough to blame the incumbent president and assume that that alone will catapult you to the top," Tumwebaze contends.

Museveni's challengers in the 2021 polls include Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine of the National Unity Platform (NUP), Maj. Gen. (rdt) Mugisha Muntu of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) and former security minister Lt Gen. (rtd) Henry Tumukunde (independent). Others are Eng. Patrick

Electoral Amuriat of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Norbert Mao of the Democratic Party (DP) and independents Joseph Kabuleta, Pastor Fred Mwesigye, Nancy Linda Kalembe, John Katumba and Willy Mayambala.

New campaign strategies

All candidates will be expected to conduct 'scientific' campaigns using TV, radio and online platforms due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

And since many of the young people have adopted social media platforms into their daily routines, each of these candidates is doing everything in their power to win their hearts using this somewhat revolutionary technological tool.

Museveni recently unveiled a new campaign App dubbed Mzee NALO, targeting youth support.

The App was developed by software engineer Kenneth Ntaro and web developer Brian Tumusiime, who said they are inspired by the President's leadership and his love to communicate to the people, especially in their generation.

"This App will enhance the President's communication to the people. It will showcase achievements of the NRM, profile him and spread to the young people the knowledge that he has been passing on, including video messages," Ntaro says.

Abreast with the notion that politics is a marketplace of ideas, Museveni has observed that through devising new campaign strategies to facilitate debate, he has been able to win over new supporters in the youth bracket.

Mzee NALO App is the latest effort as the NRM tries to push its already sizeable digital advantage to a sixth victory in the 2021 elections against a fairly younger opposition.

Kyagulanyi, 38; Mwesigye, 39, Katumba, 24, Mayambala and Kalembe, 39 (the only female candidate), are all in the youth bracket.

Tumwebaze noted that the NRM programmes for the young people are well articulated in all its manifestos and more are on course.

"That is why the #M7 Bazzukulu revolution has caught fire, giving him the highest number of social media followers. All this points to trust and believability of the President's message to the young voters. I have no doubt that the NRM will this time score better from this cluster of young voters than ever before," he argues.

Empowering youth

President Museveni, who is seeking a sixth term in office, has been calling on the youth to embrace government programmes aimed at empowering them through wealth creation by engaging in productive economic sectors.

These programmes include the Youth Livelihood Programme and Emyooga, a Runyankore word meaning a group of people doing the same thing.

Museveni's nomination, which was proposed and seconded by the NRM youth league chairperson, Gaddafi Nassur and Hellen Seku, a party youth supporter from Kamuli-Kireka in Wakiso district, was not a surprise.

"Museveni has promised to secure our future. He has already laid the foundation for doing this. He is tried and tested, therefore, it is incumbent upon us, the young people, to support this noble cause," Nassur, who represents the youth on NRM's top organ of the central executive committee, says.

He is also the party's candidate for Katikamu North MP race.

Mao recently took to his social media platforms to invite Ugandans below 30 years to participate in his presidential poster design contest. He used this contest as an opportunity to court the youth voters ahead of the elections.

"Ugandans below 30 (UB30), this is for you. Get the creative juices fl owing and be rewarded for it. Above all, be part of history in the making," he posted, saying the winner would get sh1m and first runner up sh500,000.

Kyagulanyi, Museveni's main challenger, boasts about a large youth following and held online music shows during the COVI-19 lockdown to court youth voters, it appeared.

He has also endorsed fresh faced youth, who are viewed as more loyal to him and the party, to compete for the 2021 parliamentary candidates, overlooking some seasoned Opposition politicians.

"Our country is grappling with high levels of unemployment and our government will focus on creating a conducive business environment with clear focus on addressing power tariffs, lending rates and elimination of extortion by enforcement agencies," Kyagulanyi said after being nominated.

Coalescing the youth vote

Analysts say the main presidential candidates are alive to the enormous value in coalescing the youth vote around a political message. They note that each of these candidates seems to be exploiting the best ammunition in their arsenal.

"The incumbent, alive to the economic constraints of the young people, is relying on wealth creation and other income-generating projects to mobilise the unemployed young people. On the other hand, Kyagulanyi seems to rely on the perception that he represents the young generation, a 'new' dawn," Kaheru says.

Political pundits say while the main contenders hold valid ground, the uphill task of mobilising and motivating the young people to go and vote within the political context they are operating in is real.

They also argue that for anyone to enjoy the value of the number of the young people, there is need to invest in sustained mobilisation, organisation and civic awakening.

"This has not been done. As such, the youth are quick to jump on political sloganeering, which often times is highly susceptible to breeding tension and violence if not well managed," a political analyst, who sought anonymity, stated.

Dr Golooba disagrees

However, Dr Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, a political scientist with special interest in political economy, does not think the youth will determine the outcome of the 2021 elections.

"In the past, a lot of young people showed support for Dr Kizza Besigye of FDC, because they wanted change. That eventually did not reflect in his votes. The same could happen this time round," he says.

"I have not seen Kyagulanyi actively court the youth. What I see are the youth gravitating towards his group, again because they want change, which is a slogan that one hears often enough. I would say that for him, their support is spontaneous," Golooba argues.

According to the Electoral Commission, a total of 7,846,373 youth registered for the youth village level polls, held early last month, which the NRM party won in majority of the districts.

Idle youth

In Uganda, a youth is a person aged 18 to 30 years. A total of 1.2 million youth in Uganda, aged between 15-29, are idle, the state of Uganda Population report, 2018 said.

In the report, the proportion of idle female youth was almost three times higher than that of their male counterparts.

The proportion was also higher for youth in urban areas (17%) compared to those in the rural areas (12%).

The share of idle youth, the report indicated, increased from 12% in 2013 to 14% in 2015.

"The idlest youth are female (19%), those resident in urban areas (17%), northern (17%) and central (16%)," the report noted.

The report warned that the existence of idle youth poses a challenge in the journey towards harnessing the democratic dividend and attaining sustainable development.

It calls on the Government to deal with youth unemployment head-on by ensuring that the youth population is productively utilised in the economy.

"This can be done by devising interventions to curb the problem of idle youth or strengthening programmes aimed at youth empowerment, for example, the Youth Livelihood Programme, or revisiting the Youth Venture Capital," the report suggested.

Among the employed youth, the report noted that there are wage differentials by gender in favour of the male.

The youth in the public sector earn more than those in the private sector, while those in the northern and eastern region are the least paid.

The agricultural sector employs the highest number of youth, followed by trade, manufacturing and transport sector.

Alain Sibenaler, the United Nations Population Fund representative in Uganda, says over 75% of Uganda's youth are engaged in vulnerable work, often characterised by inadequate earnings, low productivity and difficult conditions of work that undermine the workers' fundamental rights.

"It is, therefore, important that the Government of Uganda puts in place initiatives to address such vulnerabilities in order to realise the full potential of the young people. Uganda's labour force must be well-educated and endowed with high quality skills that will make the country competitive in the global market," he says.

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