{UAH} IS THE GEN. TUMUKUNDE FACTOR AT PLAY IN MUSEVENI'S RESHUFFLE OF SECURITY?

IS THE GEN. TUMUKUNDE FACTOR AT PLAY IN MUSEVENI'S RESHUFFLE OF SECURITY?

  

By CHANGE OF GUARDS

As is the tradition, whenever the country is going to the polls, Museveni is currently carrying out a gradual reshuffle of top personnel manning his security machinery. In July, he sacked the Internal Security Organization (ISO) chief, Brig. Kaka Bagyenda and his Deputy Col. Don Mugimba. A few days ago, he sacked the Deputy Inspector General of Police (D/IGP) Gen. Sabiiti Muzeyi and the Commandeer of his elite SFC, Gen. James Birungi.  He has instead appointed Gen. Paul Lokech as Deputy IGP.   

Gen. Henry Tumukunde is contesting for the presidency as an independent candidate. In March, he was detained by Museveni and charged with treason after he expressed his wish for Rwanda to support those seeking to dislodge Museveni from power.  Since Museveni does not take the Rwanda factor in the political life of Uganda, he didn't take the assertion lightly.  Gen. Tumukunde is a Lawyer, a Muhima, a Bush War hero, a former M.P,  former Division Commander, former Chief of Military Intelligence, former ISO chief and former Minister of Security.  He is also a superb politcal mobiliser whose skills delivered Museveni's February 2016 so-called victory. In Tumukunde's October 2020 interview, he acknowledged that Dr. Besigye won the 2016 polls;

"As far as I am concerned, I do not want to speak for the Electoral Commission (EC),  yes Besigye won........ according to the EC Museveni won."

He has repeatedly claimed that of all the Presidential Candidates, he is the only one giving Museveni sleepless nights.  Without doubt, his assertion is premised on his above mentioned intriguing profile. As former spy chief for ISO and CMI, he is not only in possession of a unique experience but must still be having vital contacts within the intelligence community. Political opponents with intelligence background is what Museveni fears the most. This factor could account for the July sacking of the two ISO chiefs and their replacement in the form of Col. Oluka an Acholi and Maj. Emmy Katabazi who was former Presidential Candidate Amama Mbabazi's Aide whom Gen. Tumukunde allegedly harassed during the 2016 general elections. His ethnic Hima factor could be sending shockwaves within the Hima dominated elite SFC. Based on the same ethnic factor, it is only Gen. Ssejusa who allegedly penetrated the SFC and secured Hima personnel for a treason plot in 2013. Yet, by creating the Hima dominated SFC, Museveni had estimated that his kinsmen would securely protect him against political opponents from other ethnic groupings since he didn't expect a Muhima to challenge his hold on power. Therefore, Muhoozi's first duty schedule is to turn the command structure of the SFC upside-down.

The Rwanda factor could also be at play because Museveni believes that Gen. Tumukunde's March call on Rwanda to render support to Museveni's political opponents was not just a mere slip of the tongue.  Even though, he believes Rwanda must have been tempted to make a follow up. Museveni's repeated reference to the opposition colluding with the so-called foreign forces is in reference to Rwanda.  Moreover, flushing out the Rwanda standoff is a big component of his election manifesto dubbed "Securing the Future." It could be in the same regard that the defacto Commander of SFC Gen. James Birungi who is a Munyarwanda has not only been sacked but dumped in South Sudan. In the circumstances, he has had to take a bold step for his son to overtly take command of the SFC. All along, his son had been the Commander of the SFC but remotely since January 2017 when his father sent him into hiding following the Kasese massacre that Muhoozi commanded through then Brig. Peter Elwelu.

In his campaigning, Gen. Tumukunde has hinted on the idea of leading presidential candidates to concentrate on specific geographical electoral zones and sectors where they are most popular by giving the opportunity example of Bobi Wine and Buganda. Tumukunde has also hinted on the strategy of denying Museveni a 50% win.  He went ahead to assert that the chaotic Museveni's NRM primaries was a reflection of Museveni being at his weakest. Therefore, Tumukunde being a shrewd political mobiliser, Museveni fears that Gen. Tumukunde could make incursions into the NRM electoral arena.  The General's clandestine mobilisation of Army Veterans and the Muslim community attests to this.   

Yes, Gen. Tumukunde is not the first army officer to challenge Museveni's hold on power.  Col. Dr. Besigye, Gen. Muntu, Gen. Ssejusa, Gen. Amama Mbabazi and Gen. Biraro.  However, Gen. Tumukunde's security management profile places him in a unique position. He appreciates the role of the security forces in determining who is declared winner of the polls. Owing to time lapse, Gen. Muntu and Col. Besigye lost touch with the security services. Gen. Biraro lacked the security management profile while Gen. Ssejusa was taken hostage. Gen. Tumukunde is on the loose and according to Museveni he may avail the opposition block the much needed 'technical' input.   

On the other hand, the scrutiny of some of  Museveni's key security managers by the USA is also at play.  By dumping Gen. Muzeyi and Gen. Birungi, Museveni is attempting to shield them while at the same time attempting to gain credit for cracking the whip. For the USA to place the Commander of SFC under scrutiny, it is resolving the question of the identify of the mysterious armed men in civilian clothes who were shooting people during the November 18 - 19 protests that left over 50 civilians shot dead. Gen. Sabiiti may have errored in implementing Museveni's orders during the recent protest Carnage. Maybe he disagreed with Museveni's son, Gen. Muhoozi under whose docket of Special Operations the efforts to counter the protests fell. His replacement, Gen. Lokech would not be approved by parliament if it was functioning. The genesis of his military career is unknown. During the early 1990s Lokech would hang around then Lt. Col. Fred Tolit who was the figurehead Director of Military Intelligence (DMI) at Basiima House. The substantive DMI director was then Maj. Aronda who oversaw military intelligence in general while Tolit was only concerned with the LRA and then rebel SPLA.  

At that tme, Lokech was not a staff of DMI and it was even not clear if he was a soldier. He was more of an informer or some kind of Mulebeesi (information peddler) around Col. Tolit over the LRA.  Somehow, he managed to secure an army number and rank and next he was in Congo under Gen. Kazini.  Since then, Lokech never looked back and held different command assignments and excelled in rank. Parliament has the task of telling Ugandans about Gen. Lokech's military and academic background.  Just recently, he was arrested after he threatened, with a gun, a female Traffic Officer who had stopped him but the matter was swept under the carpet. Nonetheless, his choice as the substantive police chief fits well into Museveni's designs for the security led electoral process. Lokech will be at hand to unquestionably carry out Museveni's orders to suppress the anticipated political dissent in whatever form it will present itself the same way Gen. Elwelu acted in the November 2016 Kasese massacre.  Gen. Paul Lokech cannot even head a police post but here he is as Inspector General of Police.  

INFORMATION IS POWER AND THE PROBLEM OF UGANDA IS MUSEVENISM

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Rehema
Patriot in Kampala,East Africa:Assalamu Alaikum

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