{UAH} It will be a difficult, almost bloody, transition*

_*The Observer*_ 

 *It will be a difficult, almost bloody, transition* 

October 12, 2022 

by Yusuf Sserunkuma 

President Museveni 

How deep is the anger against Museveni's sectarianism? 

I will tell some stories: A friend of mine recently said to me that every time they find a person from western Uganda vending cooked food — in Wandegeya, Nakulabye, Nakasero, or at the traffic lights—they look at them askance. Something like: "what are you doing here? Your people are in things. Why are you not with them?" 

Among other things, hips, bottoms, height and accent make locating a Ugandan's ancestry easier without knowing their names. In my gossip circle, we have a guy we nicknamed "broke Munyankore" to signal to the perception that "being broke and Munyankore" cannot exist in the same sentence. 

In truth, these are not jokes, but perceptions coming from a strong place. There is a recent poster making rounds on social media titled "New Faces at the Ministry of Health." There are seven faces in all, commissioners and their assistants: Herbert Nabaasa, Ronnie Bahuntangire, Annette Musinguzi, Ambrose Asiimwe, Amos Kwesiga, Nabateregga Nzarubara, and Flavia Ntegyereize. 

It is surely not their beautiful faces, but the disturbing fact that in a country of over 50 ethnic communities, folks from one region, perceived as one tribe, occupy major decision-making and most remunerated jobs at this ministry. It is not just NIRA, UNRA or URA, but almost all major offices in Uganda are shamelessly unrepresentative. 

 *MUSEVENI'S DEPARTURE* 

It is my sobering conclusion that any Ugandan anticipating a different future where they can dream and realise their dreams with hard work—have now postponed their hopes to "after Museveni." 

These hopes have been pushed to that unknown time. With neither term limits, age-limit, or Cold War and Museveni still close friends with the Western world (as their foremost comprador), many are simply waiting for Museveni's demise. 

This is not wishing Museveni death, but sitting back and waiting for this reality of our existence. There is no date for this sort of calculation. There was a time when his son, now full general Muhoozi Kainerugaba became the transition itself. Whatever happened to him had us talking about the transition. Be it rise in rank or deployment, we spoke transition. 

When he was made commander of the Lands Forces—which is the biggest unit of the UPDF—we felt the time had finally come. With his recent promotion to the rank of General, we are speculating again. It has been a long wait for the presidency. 

But the truth is—at least for me—this thought that Gen Muhoozi will succeed his father has significantly dimmed. It has become more evident that Bwana Museveni does not trust his son. Also disturbing for me is that the son is clearly unwilling to do anything solid towards grabbing the presidency. 

At some point, I thought he would organise a coup— however fake—against his clearly haggard dad. But it has also become more difficult countenancing this idea. 

 *IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH* 

If Museveni simply collapses in office—as he seems to have planned it out already—the next days ahead will not only be fluid but also difficult. Of course, unless he collapses at a public function, those inside the corridors of power (if he simply never wakes up) will not announce this news to the country as immediately as expected. They might wish to wait for six months as they negotiate the next moves. 

But severe infighting will not allow the news to remain entirely hidden and speculation will be broken. Kampala will be tense. With a Muhoozi project already conceived and taking shape, General Muhoozi may be pushed to seize the moment. But competing forces within both the UPDF and the main political community would not be easily walked over. 

All will be appealing to their constituents for strength which will immediately move the shoving and pushing to the streets of Kampala. Once this infighting reaches the streets— and it could be bloody—ordinary folks from other parts of Uganda will start looking at those from western Uganda with barely hidden hostility. Museveni has done just enough to make sure Uganda is divided along tribal lines to almost genocidal levels. 

All those beneficiaries of the current status quo (including innocent people who simply hail from western Uganda) will be in the eye of the storm. These prophetic images scare me to the bone. 

With Museveni unwilling to hand over power to a new person to avoid any shoving and fighting after he collapses, Museveni's inner circle—especially the beneficiaries of his governance, the so-called deep state—have to start to see him as a liability. 

Either, they can talk to him nicely and hand over power to anyone they trust or they can decide to remove him and exhibit themselves as the heroes. Any new heroes stand a chance of guaranteeing stability, building on their claim of herohood. 

yusufkajura@gmail.com 

 _The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University._

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