US carriers in the Mideast are within MiG-31 striking purview

By Boyko Nikolov On Oct 19, 2023

Making a significant announcement on October 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin divulged that he directed MiG-31K/I strike fighters, equipped with Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, to regularize their patrols over the neutral airscape of the Black Sea. 

The President pointed out, “Our MiG-31 aircraft boasts weaponry inclusive of Kinzhal missile systems. These systems, as is widely recognized, hold a range that surpasses 1,000 km, reaching speeds of Mach-9”, stressing that this strategic move was a response to the mounting instability in the Middle East. 

Notably, the deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups near Israel in the Mediterranean Sea by the U.S. Navy was highlighted as a triggering element. The patrols by the MiG-31s will be influential in situating the Eastern Mediterranean within the striking purview of the hypersonic weapons that these aircraft are armed with.

  

Photo credit: MWM

The deployed US units

Since the initiation of hostilities between Israel and Hamas on October 7, there has been a substantial enlargement of the United States military presence in the Middle East and its adjacent areas. This dramatic increase is discernible in the deployment of a robust line-up of military assets, including two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, an assault carrier backed by a Marine Rapid Response Force, A-10 attack jets, F-15E strike fighters, forward-deployed B-1B bombers, and a wide array of other resources. 

Such an enlarged military footprint of the U.S. in the region could potentially menace Russian forces and interests residing there. This development runs parallel to the escalating alerts regarding the jihadist militias, who allegedly carry out operations under the safety net provided by Washington’s NATO ally, Turkey. These very groups are reportedly planning a series of offensives against Russian targets in Syria.

Russia protects Bashar Al-Assad

The rising possibility of US interventions against Syria, Hezbollah, and potentially Iran, born out of escalating tensions with Israel, brings into sharp focus Russia’s staunch commitment to prevent the toppling of the Syrian state. Factor in Russia’s substantial military facilities located within Syria, and the possibility of Russian involvement becomes a plausible reality. 

In the year 2023, the situation in Syria saw a noticeable heightening of tension between American and Russian forces. Russia has been unflagging in its criticism of what is broadly perceived as the US Military’s unlawful occupation of Northeastern Syria, as well as the illicit procurement and sale of Syrian oil.

While Russia’s military presence in the region remains comparatively minor, the strategic value of the Black Sea’s assets, specifically regarding fire support, is of paramount importance. 

Historical precedence reinforces this viewpoint, as witnessed during anti-insurgency maneuvers in Syria in 2015. The Black Sea Fleet and regional bombers executed cruise missile strikes, demonstrating the operational aptitude and strategic relevance of assets in the Black Sea.

About Kh-47M2 Kinzhal

The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile drew substantial attention when it successfully obliterated an American Patriot air defense system in Ukraine on May 16. Its inaugural deployment on March 18, 2022, saw it striking a large underground bunker in Western Ukraine that stored war materiel recently transported via Poland.  

First introduced in the latter part of 2017, the Kinzhal missile was initially delivered by the Russian Air Force’s MiG-31K strike fighters. Its utility was soon recognized and it found its way onto other aircraft including the advanced MiG-31I strike fighter, the Tu-22M3 bomber, and as of September 2023, the Su-34 strike fighter as well. 

The Kinzhal’s impressive performance has not only prompted an expansion in the assortment of aircraft that can deploy it, effectively liberating the Russian Air Force from further enlisting more MiG-31s, but it has also buttressed arguments for a fivefold augmentation in missile production, an objective attained by early 2023.

Mach 9

One of the key reasons for the high regard for the Kinzhal is its extraordinary terminal speeds, approaching nearly Mach 9. Additionally, it exhibits exceptional maneuverability and a quasi-ballistic low-altitude trajectory, making it exceedingly challenging to track, intercept, and, in some instances, even detect whilst in flight. 

 

Photo by Alexey Kudenko

Boasting an impressive engagement range of 2000km, this missile is largely perceived as virtually impervious to reliable interception. The sole acknowledged form of defense at this time involves disrupting or incapacitating satellites and other intelligence assets that supply necessary targeting data.

It’s not that easy

Insights from a multitude of experts, political scientists, and analysts often convey a shared belief: if an American aircraft carrier comes under attack, it’s an indicator that nuclear warfare is already in progress. However, it is prudent to not jump to conclusions. In our current geopolitical climate, employing nuclear weapons is a complex decision to make and by no means a straightforward process. 

One critical consideration remains – upon an aircraft carrier’s deck reside innumerable bombs, alongside planes brimming with fuel. In the event of a detonation, severe damage to the ship is virtually inevitable. Despite this, it’s worth noting the carrier’s robust deck fire extinguishing system, designed to rapidly combat such circumstances. 

Furthermore, it’s essential to bear in mind that an aircraft carrier never operates in solitude. A protective escort of vessels with anti-aircraft systems is always present, ensuring the premature interception of most missiles before they can make contact with the carrier’s deck.

A Russian expert

Photo credit: Daily Press

Russian military specialist Alexei Lenkov posits that a mere brace, ten, or more, of Zircon missiles, would be insufficient in sinking a formidable US aircraft carrier. Lenkov’s assessment rests on the consideration that accompanying frigates and destroyers, forming part of the carrier’s protective ensemble, would ruthlessly intercept and nullify the in-flight Zircons, preventing these high-speed projectiles from making contact with their primary target. 

Lenkov elucidates that, even under circumstances where ten or more Zircons achieve direct hits, the impact would cause significant damage but still fall short of sinking the vessel. “It will endure the onslaught,” asserts Lenkov, “despite incurring notable damage, the resiliency embedded in these American titans ensures their ability to navigate back home.” 

Alternatively, the TE-2 torpedo emerges as a viable option, owing to its unique ability to strike the sub-surface section of the aircraft carrier, an area where missiles remain ineffective. Notwithstanding, penetrating the robust armor of the ship would necessitate a formidable barrage of 10 or potentially even 20 newly minted TE-2 torpedoes. 

The Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, renowned for their defensive prowess, brandish a 6-meter torpedo defense mechanism. This intricate three-chamber system prides itself on its capacity to neutralize the explosive force of incoming torpedoes, requiring relentless and recurrent hits on the identical spot for any real damage to be inflicted.

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