{UAH} What is the probability of Donald Trump winning the next presidential election?

The way I see the race today after careful statistical analysis and a dartboard I will make a prediction.

Recognizing almost five weeks is a long time in politics today being October 4th There is time for an October surprise which could change things.

However, the way I see it right now Donald Trump will lose the popular vote by between eight and 12 million votes. Popular votes do not win elections for president though. The electoral college will give the win to Donald Trump with about 280 electoral college votes.

North Carolina, despite a great deal of wishful thinking, is not in play, that will stay Republican. Georgia, by whatever methods necessary with law changes that have taken place, and the make up between Kemp, and Trump will go back to the Republican column.

Everything that is being reported is being done so to create apathy and a sense of Donald Trump not being electable. That situation favors the Republicans and like in 2016 the Republicans will win.

(Side note, Trump will remain in office long enough to put his legal problems behind him. At that point, Vance will become president and fully implement project 2025.)

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