[UAH] Agriculture is the largest contributor to Africa’s future economic growth
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By Warren Nyamugasira
Recently, our leaders have been commemorating, on our behalf, 50 years since the formation of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) now African Union (AU). Despite the twists and turns over the past five decades, African people have a lot to celebrate. A look at selected poverty indices quickly shows that Africa has made incredible progress in the fight against extreme poverty in the last decade alone.
According to credible statistics, between 1999 and 2008, the proportion of people living on less than $1.25 a day in Sub-Saharan Africa decreased from 56.5% to 47.5% (UNDP 2012). In Uganda, it has come down to below 30%.The number of people on Anti-Retroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa increased from 50,000 in 2002 to whooping 6.2 million in 2011 (UNAIDS 2012) and between 2000 and 2010, deaths attributed to malaria fell by 33% (WHO 2012).
On access to improved water sources, there was an increase of 12% between 1990 and 2010, as a result of which 273 million more people have clean water (WHO and UNICEF 2012). When it comes to enrolments in primary school in sub-Saharan Africa, there was a jump by 50.8 million children between 1999 and 2010 (UNESCO 2012).
On the economic front, between 2000 and 2010 growth across sub-Saharan Africa averaged between 4% and 7% (except for 2009) and Africa was home to six of the world's ten fastest growing economies. Over the decade 1999 – 2008, electricity production rose by a third in sub-Saharan Africa, from 318.0 billion kWh to 423.9 billion kWh (WB 2012)
And yet Africa remains challenged, lagging behind the other continents on almost all human development indices. For example, disposable income keeps shrinking while the cost of living keeps rising. So as Africa looks to the next 50 years, we need to ask some pertinent questions. How can the world's richest continent in terms of natural resources, size, rapid economic growth and a rising middle class, continue to lag behind on most of the human development indices? Aware of the Kinyankole saying that "otamukweitse ati mwikarire tugyende", which roughly translates as finish the job so we can proceed, the idea that "it is easier said than done", still we ask: How do we get more income to more people? How can we generate more jobs across the spectrum at a time when unemployment is globally a thorn in the flesh? For many of Sub-Saharan countries, which African promise is the most potent a key to unlocking Africa's development potential? Could agriculture be the key?
Yes. It is clear that in Africa, agriculture is the single largest contributor to future economic growth. To begin with, it is a well-known fact that growth in agricultural is sector is 2.5 times as effective at reducing poverty as growth in other sectors (statistics by the World Bank). It is estimated that with proper investment and management, agricultural output in Africa could increase from $280b per year to as much as $880b by 2030. This is hard to beat by other sources of prosperity. Moreover, with more than two-thirds of our citizens today dependent on farming for their livelihoods, increasing attention and investment in the sector and ensuring that investment well utilised is, therefore, one of the most effective ways to reduce poverty and get Sub-Saharan Africa per capita income to the first $1000.
Evidence shows that, where it has taken place, systematic and targeted agricultural investment helps farmers earn their way out of poverty, increase exports, and provide communities and families with sustainable and increased incomes.
Today, those African countries which went through with the commitment to invest up to 10% or more of their national budgets to agriculture, including Burkina Faso, Ghana, Guinea, Niger, Senegal, Rwanda, Malawi and Ethiopia – have reaped dividends. Ethiopia, the AU host country, stands out; from 2008 – 2011 almost 20% of government spending (more than what Uganda spends on education) was invested in agriculture. Consequently agriculture productivity rose each year by almost a quarter.
The country also has a clear 10-year plan for transforming agriculture as a catalyst for industrialisation. Countries that are yet to register similar outcomes have had their own reasons why they have not yet been able to 'put the opponent down' and proceed. Some like Uganda have also had to pacify the country and contribute to pacifying the region; some are still recovering from bad policies forced on them by the World Bank and IMF while others focused on other sectors such as primary school enrolment or like the horn and the Sahel, repeatedly suffered natural disasters such as severe droughts.
Be that as it may, a recent report by the ONE Campaign (A Growing Opportunity: Measuring Investments in African Agriculture) shows that some nine countries have done well but by and large investment in infrastructure, technology, and market development for the sector remains very low and in need of greatest and most urgent attention.
Opportunities offered by agriculture to boost Africa's fortunes still remain under lock and key; and while the key has not been completely lost, it seems to be mixed up with a bunch of other keys such that those responsible can't quite tell which key is the right one.
Our own PMA has suffered ups and downs down the years and now remains in political limbo. Donor priorities also keep shifting making it difficult to stay the course. While paying lip service to agriculture as a catalyst for future growth for African economies, most still relegate agriculture to serving a subsistence role.
Presently, and this has been so since the demise of the cooperative movement, it takes civil society organisations to make noise for agriculture. For example, they have been the ones spearheading the campaign for an agricultural bank and the revival of proper cooperatives, not just SACCOS. This needs to change. Agriculture must move up the ladder of policy priorities.
Warren Nyamugasira is an economist and policy activist
- STILL SURVIVING THE MAFIAS,LIVING IN FEAR AND PAIN,BEING HUNTED LEFT,RIGHT AND CENTER BY MAFIAS PLUS THEIR NETWORKS.
- ON 29/JANUARY/2004 DURING RADIO ONE EKIMEEZA TALKSHOW AT CLUB OBBLIGATTO I REVEALED THE PRESENCE OF MUSEVENI CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION BOUGHT FROM NORTH KOREA AND IRAN-THAT WAS HIDDEN UNDER GULU AIRPORT HUNKER AND THE UNITED NATIONS GRABBED,DESTROYED AND TOOK AWAY THE REMAINING ONES TO UNKNOWN DESTINATION-THIS IS ONE REASON WHY PRESIDENT MUSEVENI AND HIS MAFIAS CAN NEVER-NEVER-I SAY NEVER FORGIVE ME SINCE I EXPOSED AND SPOILED THEIR DEADLY DESTRUCTIVE AGENDA FOR NORTHERN UGANDA!!!
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