{UAH} FDC IS GONE FOR BURIAL IN SAME CEMETERY AS UPC
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- Category: politics Opinion
- Published on 23 October 2013
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The Imminent collapse of FDC creates an Opportunity for the Creation of a Fresh Opposition with a Credible Political Agenda for a New Uganda
By Fred Daka Kamwada
For the last few months, there has been a muted allegation that the infighting within the second most powerful political party in the country, Â Forum For Democratic Change had reached a point of no-return.
What was awaited was the total explosion of the party that has threatened President Museveni’s grasp on power in the previous three elections.
 One senior member of the opposition told the author that the fallout between FDC party President Mugisha Muntu and leader of opposition in Parliament Hon Nandala Mafabi was boiling beyond the control of the party leadership.
It was reported that both men at the helm of FDC cannot enjoy a cup of tea together, leave alone greet each other when they meet in the corridors of the Najjanakumbi FDC party headquarters.
There were believable rumours that Muntu was actually about to sack Nandala Mafabi as leader of the opposition in the August House.
However, while appearing on a regular (NTV) television talk show, Gen Muntu scoffed at suggestions that he had a big political misunderstanding with Nandala. He even went on to post on his face book timeline saying that there was no friction between him and his colleague.Â
But the damage seems to be irreparably done and it has already dented the image of the party.
On Monday, Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu fuelled more suspense in the party when he told the media that he is the only person with the mandate to decide whether Mr Mafabi is demoted or retained as Leader of Opposition in Parliament in consultations with the party organs. That statement tells it all.
FDC SQUABBLES
This week there was a report saying that the FDC party leadership had resolved not to repeat the elections for the party President.
This means that Gen Muntu remains party President until 2017, a year after the national general elections which are slated for 2016. But Muntu’s reign until 2017 will remain challenged by another section of the same party; that is friction reloaded.
The FDC constitution states that the party President is not the automatic flag bearer in the national elections. This provision creates room for Nandala or any other member of the party to contest as flag bearer of the FDC party in the national elections.
This provision should have put Hon Nandala in good stead with his comrade and allowed him (Muntu) to run office until the expiry of his term as party President until 2017.
But Hon Nandala seems to have an embedded feeling that he should have been the party President at all costs. He has never conceded defeat to Muntu in the elections that were held last year.
The friction seems to be tearing the opposition party apart with the recent defection of over a hundred FDC party members who surrendered their party cards to President Museveni in Rukunguri this week.
The party is an irreversible trend of collapse because of petty reasons.
REGIONAL IMBALANCE IN FDC
There are rumours that Nandala’s supporters feel that the leader of Uganda’s major opposition party shouldn’t have come from western Ugandan (the same region that produced the current Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni)
The tribal card seems to be pushing the FDC party off the realms of national politics.
Incidentally, almost all the senior positions of the FDC are held by people from western Uganda closely followed by northern Uganda.
During his reign as FDC party President, Dr Kiza Besigye played the tribal card to the detriment of the unity of the group. He, for instance side-lined senior politicians from Buganda in favour of those from western Uganda
Besigye, for example, left out Hon Betty Kamya from senior party position in favour of John Butime from western Uganda. That led to the bitter fallout, which saw Betty Kamya quit the party and form her own party, the National Federal Alliance.Â
Besigye was very insensitive about the regional balance required in stabilising Ugandan politics. And that has cost the party the unity and solidarity required to wrestle power from President Museveni. Yet the tribal and ethnic card is the most sensitive element in Ugandan politics. Any Ugandan leader who ignores tribal sentiments does so at his/her own risk.
WEST AND NORTHERN DOMINANCE
It goes without saying that the north and western Uganda regions have dominated Ugandan politics for the last five decades of the country’s history.
 Having dominated power and ruled Uganda almost together for the last fifty years with President Apollo Milton Obote having served two terms , Gen Idi Amin Dada and Gen Tito Okello in addition  to Museveni’s 27 years , its obvious that other parts of the country are yearning for a fresh start
Interestingly, the central Buganda region which has more social-economic clout , democratic numbers and a powerful traditional king, has had the weakest Presidents in Uganda’s history with President Frederick Edward Muteesa having served as a ceremonial President from 1962 to 1966, President Yusuf Kironde Lule 68 days and Godfrey Lukongwa Binaisa for some few months in the early 80s.
The political stage has therefore been dominated by northern and western Uganda.
Even when the north dominated power during the Obote era, it was the westerners who dominated his government with powerful ministers like Chris Rwakasisi, Edward Rurangaranga, Dr Adonia Tiberondwa, Dr James Rwanyarare etc all Banyankore who formed the pinnacle of the UPC government.
 President Museveni has variously been accused of making it an all-western and central region affair, leaving a subtle outcry for regional imbalance in allocations of government postings that has persisted to-date.
THE TRAGEDY
And it’s surprising that the Ugandan opposition parties have failed to address these issues within the formation of their party structures ,with UPC now completely under northern leadership, DP dominated by members from central region but with a party President Norbert Mao undermined because of his roots from northern Uganda.
 These lapses of judgement in the party leadership of the above dominant parties in the country have contributed to the weakened position of the Ugandan opposition.
President Museveni has managed to exploit those divisions with utmost gratefulness.
He has also been wise enough to court all parts of the country by engaging in pseudo-development agenda like infrastructural development i.e. building dams, opening new projects, renovating roads, championing the fight against poverty, etc.
This happens while the opposition continues to bicker seriously yet the next general elections are just around the corner.
It so happens that no alternative leadership is emerging to give Ugandan a new direction.
Instead it’s the old leadership from NRM (i.e. Besigye, Gen Sejjusa, Prof Gilbert Bukenya, and Capt. Mike Mukula )that is emerging to challenge Museveni in the forthcoming election battle.
This leaves the country running in circles. But recycling the old wine in new bottles will not help Uganda.
This is why a disunited FDC is not good for Uganda. But it has been watered down by the fact that its run by Muntu who is seen as a direct off shot of President Museveni’s leadership.
The Nandala Mafabi Camp
Hon Nandala Mafabi’s camp feels that it has the moral and sentimental right to oust Muntu to pave way for another Ugandan who has not been associated with NRM and from a region that has never ruled Uganda to challenge Museveni for power.Â
That sentiment forms the core reason why Mafabi has intransigently refused to concede defeat to Muntu in the previous election for the party President. And that alone leaves a stumbling block on how to reconcile these members.
Having formed the FDC on the sentiments of reforming NRM, it has become very difficult for the party to gain acceptance within the Ugandan population because it’s (FDC)  largely regarded as the continuation of President Museveni’s era.
The Genesis of The Matter
The first problem lies with the way FDC was formed.
The bush war group realised that they had lost favour with the appointing authority (President Museveni) and there was a crusade to scare him into listening to them. Besigye took the lead with his controversial letter, which highlighted the failings of the NRM, published in the media in 1999.
At just around the same time that Kiiza Besigye and his group where fidgeting with how to get rid of Museveni or force him into submitting to them , Museveni also made a master piece decision and recruited his son Muhoozi Kainerugaba into the army in 1999.
It’s not a complete coincidence that Brigadier Muhoozi has since become the talking point in Ugandan political circles. This is because the opposition was formed not necessarily to champion the cause for the country but to get rid of Museveni as an individual. He obviously had to protect himself individually.
All the Besigye’s needed was to rally all Ugandans who had exasperated with President Museveni to make Uganda a better place.
A NEW UGANDA
Now while the opposition is bickering endlessly to the point of extinction, there is a feeling within the populace that Uganda needs a new opposition that will address the new challenges of the country. Issues like chronic corruption, regional imbalance, weakened and powerless institutions, a non-partisan electoral commission, colonial education system, weak health services, credible infrastructural development   etc, will not be done by the current divided opposition.
They will obviously ruin this country when they get to power.
Therefore the total collapse of the current Ugandan political opposition could be a blessing in disguise to Uganda because it will ( and should) see the emergence of a fresh breed of leaders with new ideas, no grudges with President Museveni but with a fresh agenda of solving the challenges faced by this country.
Uganda needs a leadership that is sensitive to the history and future needs of this country.
Not leadership that is disoriented with Museveni because of having lost jobs but with a policy-driven patriotic agenda.
It can only happen if the old parties like DP, FDC and UPC collapse completely to allow a new political dispensation to emerge.
And there is every reason to believe that by 2016, the FDC will have collapsed under the weight of its poor management and the emergence of a new front.
The Author is a Social Critic and Political Commentator who aspires to get involved in shaping a new UgandaÂ
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