{UAH} Political unrest threatens South Sudan’s admission into the EAC
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PHOTO | FILE From left: Presidents Pierre Nkurunziza (Burundi) Uhuru Kenyatta (Kenya) Jakaya Kikwete (Tanzania), Yoweri Museveni (Uganda) and Paul Kagame (Rwanda), whose countries form the East African Community. South Sudan applied to join after its 2011 independence. NATION
By MUTHOKI MUMO
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Right from the onset, the newly independent South Sudan cultivated warm relations with its southern neighbours within the East African Community.
Motivated by economic pragmatism, and perhaps seeking a sense of belonging, South Sudan submitted an application to join the regional economic bloc in November 2012, months after gaining independence.
The five partner states were more than eager to bring the oil-rich country into the fold of the EAC. A verification team was sent to Juba in July 2012 and a timetable for negotiations has since been drawn up.
STABILITY AND GOOD GORVENANCE
However, the ongoing political chaos in South Sudan may see these plans crumble swiftly. The Treaty for the Establishment of the EAC sets out stability and good governance as one of the requirements for membership. An attempted coup and political chaos mean that South Sudan is now far from meeting this prerequsite.
"The current internal crisis in South Sudan does not augur well with its bid for membership in the Community," noted EAC Secretary General, Richard Sezibera, in a statement seen by theSunday Nation.
The EAC charter, Mr Sezibera observes, requires that a country meet standards on "universally accepted principles of good governance, democracy, the rule of law, observance of human rights and social justice."
Clashes broke out in Juba on Sunday December 15, following what the presidency claims was an attempted coup. They have since escalated, with reports indicating that violence has spread to other cities. The United Nations has put the death toll so far at about 500 people.
Following a meeting of the EAC Council of Ministers in November, the secretariat had scheduled the first round of negotiations with South Sudan for January 13 to January 22, 2014.
A decision on South Sudan's membership in the Community was expected from the heads of state in April 2014.
With Juba in shambles, it's doubtful whether Salva Kiir's government will make this date with the EAC, let alone meet the standards required set out by partner states.
"We pray that this programme will not be jeopardised by the ongoing internal conflict in the country," reads part of Mr Sezibera's statement.
In a telephone interview with the Sunday Nation, Prof Macharia Munene, an international relations scholar at the United States International University, noted that the current crisis in Juba should not have come as a surprise to the EAC partner states since South Sudan has struggled for stability since independence.
President Salva Kiir has blamed soldiers loyal to former Vice-President, Riek Machar, whom he sacked with the rest of the Cabinet in July.
Prof Munene reckons that the speed with which the conflict is resolved could be key in determining whether the timeline for South Sudan's integration into the EAC will be interrupted.
"The question now is how the government will handle the situation. If it is resolved quickly and is seen as no more than a hiccup, then the schedule might not be dramatically interrupted. If it is a prolonged crisis, then there might be problem," he said.
HIGHLY MILITARISED SOCIETY
Even in the early stages of verification of South Sudan's EAC membership application, there were cracks. A team sent to Juba last year noted that the government was divided over what the timetable would be for joining the EAC.
The verification committee also raised concerns about the "highly militarised society."
"Proliferation of illicit arms and light weapons is a threat to national and regional security and stability," read the team's report.
Currently, EAC members are participating in the peace-making process with Ugandan media reporting that President Yoweri Museveni has been called in by the United Nations to mediate.
Kenya's Foreign Affairs Secretary Amina Mohammed and her counterparts from the other member states have made their way to Juba.
South Sudan's estimated 11 million people have been a captive market for goods and services from Kenya and Uganda.
Data from the Kenya Economic Survey indicates that in 2012 Kenya exported goods worth Sh17.9 billion to the country that hosts an estimated 30,000 Kenyans.
Kenya's financial service firms have also found a ready market in South Sudan. Kenya Commercial Bank, for example, has a branch network spanning 10 states, while Co-operative and Equity Banks have established significant footholds.
The aviation industry was among the first casualties of the upheaval, with Kenya Airways and Fly540 both suspending flights to Juba on Monday.
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