{UAH} WHAT OTHERS SAY: Why Al Shabaab will come again - Opinion/Editorial - thecitizen.co.tz
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December 21, 2013
OPINION/EDITORIAL
WHAT OTHERS SAY: Why Al Shabaab will come again
Posted Thursday, December 19 2013 at 00:00
IN SUMMARY
To think that just 38,000 Somali and AMISOM troops can dominate a territory the size of Afghanistan whose 220,000 better trained soldiers can't, is a bit of a pipe dream.
Could Al Shabaab carry out another Westgate-type terrorist attack in Nairobi, or stage a similar outrage in Kampala?
This was one of the questions at the back of the mind of a couple of folks at a meeting of Somali intellectuals and civil society activists held by the African Union's Somalia mission, AMISOM, in the Rwanda capital Kigali this week.
One of the reasons Kigali was chosen for the meet was to show the Somalis that no matter how far a country descends into hell, it can rise and shine again—as Rwanda has largely managed to do. Secondly, to help imagine what a Rwanda-type genocide might look like on a Somalia scale, if they don't get their act together.
Suffice it to say that a Tuesday visit to the Genocide Memorial in Kigali, and a rousing speech later by Alice Karekezi of the Centre for Conflict Management at the National University of Rwanda, left a trail of Somali tears in Kigali on the day.
Inevitably, though, while some lamented that AMISOM and nearly everyone else in Somalia had become "obsessed" with Al Shabaab, it dominated three days of debate and conversation because the uncomfortable truth, as one Somali intellectual put it, is that "Al Shabaab or its ideology will very much be around for another 20 years."
The Shabaab has been considerably buoyed by what it considers a spectacular successful campaign in the attack on Westgate. Indeed a few days ago London-based journalist Jamal Osman posted a revealing video following a rare visit to the group's training camp in the bushes of Bulo Burto (http://www.channel4.com/news/al-shabaab-somalia-kenya-westgate-al-qaeda).
The public face of the Shabaab, Sheikh Ali Dhere, is effusive with praise for the Westgate attackers, and most ominously, promises Kenya that he will rain more fire on its head. The video also underscores why Al Shabaab is not about to die.
To begin with, Al Shabaab is a more efficient group (or for that matter enforcer) and less corrupt, than the government of Somalia in Mogadishu. In Bulo Burto the Shabaab police is shown on patrol. Where Shabaab rules, the streets are very safe, although the price for law and order is cutting limbs off or stoning to death criminals.
And they do something that not even governments, let alone the police, in Uganda, Kenya, or Tanzania, don't. They go around shops making sure no expired goods are sold, and check out the medical supplies in clinics and hospitals to ensure they are not stolen. Elsewhere in most of East Africa, people in authority are the ones who sell expired goods.
Also Al Shabaab is the one Somali organisation that organises big time across clans, so it is probably the mostly nationalist Somali platform now. In addition, in a Somali where in recent years many live or die by their clans, and the smaller clans have been locked out all opportunities, the Shabaab came in and turned tables. It gives long-marginalised clans administrative jobs, hands them business licences, thus cobbling together a new support base that is solidly in its corner.
There is the view that no international force will ever really defeat Shabaab. Only its mistakes and internal contradictions will. Indeed AMISOM estimates that while the terror group has 6,000 active soldiers, potentially it can mobilise up to over 30,000 if it needed to. Meanwhile, the Somali National Army has nearly 20,000 troops. AMISOM currently has just about 18,000. However, they are trying to secure a territory that is almost the size of Afghanistan. Not counting the international troops, Afghanistan has an army of 220,000 – but they have failed to subdue Al Shabaab's cousins, the Taliban.
To think that just 38,000 Somali and AMISOM troops can dominate a territory the size of Afghanistan whose 220,000 better trained soldiers can't, is a bit of a pipe dream. The Shabaab will therefore have lot of room and freedom to organise and plot. And for sure, they will come knocking on Nairobi or Kampala's doors again in the future. Only eternal vigilance, and angels running our governments, will save us. But the ultimate solution of all, lies in Somalia. Those who want to defeat Al Shabaab, need to help the country elect a government in Mogadishu that is more efficient and honest than the militants.
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December 21, 2013
OPINION/EDITORIAL
WHAT OTHERS SAY: Why Al Shabaab will come again
Posted Thursday, December 19 2013 at 00:00
IN SUMMARY
To think that just 38,000 Somali and AMISOM troops can dominate a territory the size of Afghanistan whose 220,000 better trained soldiers can't, is a bit of a pipe dream.
Could Al Shabaab carry out another Westgate-type terrorist attack in Nairobi, or stage a similar outrage in Kampala?
This was one of the questions at the back of the mind of a couple of folks at a meeting of Somali intellectuals and civil society activists held by the African Union's Somalia mission, AMISOM, in the Rwanda capital Kigali this week.
One of the reasons Kigali was chosen for the meet was to show the Somalis that no matter how far a country descends into hell, it can rise and shine again—as Rwanda has largely managed to do. Secondly, to help imagine what a Rwanda-type genocide might look like on a Somalia scale, if they don't get their act together.
Suffice it to say that a Tuesday visit to the Genocide Memorial in Kigali, and a rousing speech later by Alice Karekezi of the Centre for Conflict Management at the National University of Rwanda, left a trail of Somali tears in Kigali on the day.
Inevitably, though, while some lamented that AMISOM and nearly everyone else in Somalia had become "obsessed" with Al Shabaab, it dominated three days of debate and conversation because the uncomfortable truth, as one Somali intellectual put it, is that "Al Shabaab or its ideology will very much be around for another 20 years."
The Shabaab has been considerably buoyed by what it considers a spectacular successful campaign in the attack on Westgate. Indeed a few days ago London-based journalist Jamal Osman posted a revealing video following a rare visit to the group's training camp in the bushes of Bulo Burto (http://www.channel4.com/news/al-shabaab-somalia-kenya-westgate-al-qaeda).
The public face of the Shabaab, Sheikh Ali Dhere, is effusive with praise for the Westgate attackers, and most ominously, promises Kenya that he will rain more fire on its head. The video also underscores why Al Shabaab is not about to die.
To begin with, Al Shabaab is a more efficient group (or for that matter enforcer) and less corrupt, than the government of Somalia in Mogadishu. In Bulo Burto the Shabaab police is shown on patrol. Where Shabaab rules, the streets are very safe, although the price for law and order is cutting limbs off or stoning to death criminals.
And they do something that not even governments, let alone the police, in Uganda, Kenya, or Tanzania, don't. They go around shops making sure no expired goods are sold, and check out the medical supplies in clinics and hospitals to ensure they are not stolen. Elsewhere in most of East Africa, people in authority are the ones who sell expired goods.
Also Al Shabaab is the one Somali organisation that organises big time across clans, so it is probably the mostly nationalist Somali platform now. In addition, in a Somali where in recent years many live or die by their clans, and the smaller clans have been locked out all opportunities, the Shabaab came in and turned tables. It gives long-marginalised clans administrative jobs, hands them business licences, thus cobbling together a new support base that is solidly in its corner.
There is the view that no international force will ever really defeat Shabaab. Only its mistakes and internal contradictions will. Indeed AMISOM estimates that while the terror group has 6,000 active soldiers, potentially it can mobilise up to over 30,000 if it needed to. Meanwhile, the Somali National Army has nearly 20,000 troops. AMISOM currently has just about 18,000. However, they are trying to secure a territory that is almost the size of Afghanistan. Not counting the international troops, Afghanistan has an army of 220,000 – but they have failed to subdue Al Shabaab's cousins, the Taliban.
To think that just 38,000 Somali and AMISOM troops can dominate a territory the size of Afghanistan whose 220,000 better trained soldiers can't, is a bit of a pipe dream. The Shabaab will therefore have lot of room and freedom to organise and plot. And for sure, they will come knocking on Nairobi or Kampala's doors again in the future. Only eternal vigilance, and angels running our governments, will save us. But the ultimate solution of all, lies in Somalia. Those who want to defeat Al Shabaab, need to help the country elect a government in Mogadishu that is more efficient and honest than the militants.
- Ethiopian Boeing 767 crash-lands in Arusha
- Fresh clues on what faced Ethiopia plane
- 4 ministers axed over 'Tokomeza Ujangili'
- Nakumatt set to acquire Shoprite stores in Tanzania
- Fastjet resists Precision's $32m bailout
- Dart may not reduce traffic, PM concedes
- Tanzania twins survive world's record surgery
- Mandela signer in psychiatric hospital
- Mugabe's party wants to rename Victoria falls
- Malawi a running joke at Mandela funeral
- Pastor's daughter turned world's powerful woman
- 4 ministers axed over 'Tokomeza Ujangili'
- Mandela signer in psychiatric hospital
- Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
- Second Draft Katiba out on December 30
- Fresh clues on what faced Ethiopia plane
- Tanzania's conjoined twins 'very stable'
- Govt to review dons' retirement age
- Media should cater to public interest: tcra
- Tanzanian herbalists cash in on Kenya doctors' strike
- Tanzania to establish tractor assembly firm for higher production
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