{UAH} Hanging On To South Sudan...Militarily!

My take on the situation since the Cease-Fire.

Hanging On To South Sudan... Militarily?

The two warring parties in South Sudan signed a cease-fire agreement recently in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia where both parties agreed to halt all hostilities against each other and stop the advance of their respective armies.

This cease-fire has been supported by IGAD and the African Union and has also been applauded by the EU and the US.

One important clause of the cease-fire agreement calls on all external forces to withdraw from South Sudan.

This was one of the key requests by the Riek Machar faction in order to sign the agreement. They outrightly insisted on Uganda's withdrawal from Southern Sudanese territory before signing.

However, due to diplomatic pressures, the Machar team agreed to sign the cease-fire but insisted that the issue of external forces withdrawal be included in the agreement.

It is therefore in breach of that agreement that Uganda has refused to vacate South Sudan so that the war ravaged country can lick it's wounds and normalize.

So couldn't Uganda be complicating the fragile peace in Southern Sudan?

Uganda's Foreign Minister, Sam Kuteesa recently stated that Uganda would remain in South Sudan despite the cease-fire. He said this on the sidelines of the recently concluded 22nd African Union heads of state summit also in Addis, Ethiopia.

It obviously puts Uganda in an awkward situation particularly within the African Union whose official position is also enshrined in the agreement signed by the warring factions.

This is therefore the second breach of contract that Uganda's leader is directly involved in.

First was when he sent Ugandan troops to South Sudan on what was agreed to be a humanitarian mission to support the evacuation of Ugandans and other civilians trapped in the battle.

But suddenly we all learnt that the Uganda Peoples Defence Forces had been involved in combat operations alongside President Salva Kiir's SPLA troops with 9 Ugandan soldiers officially declared dead to-date.

We have also learnt of sustained air bombardments and artillery fire against rebel positions.
This puts Uganda directly on one side of the conflict and shatters any attempts to claim impartiality or act as a peace broker.

So the question now would be; Why is Uganda refusing to abide by what the warring parties have agreed between them?

In my opinion, we have to go back to the request of assistance that President Salva Kiir allegedly made to President Museveni immediately after war erupted.

It seems the agreement between the two presidents was made verbally. And in any arrangement there is likely to be some deal cut between the two presidents.

Museveni offers troops and protection, Salva Kiir offers something in return.

And since South Sudan has nothing to offer but oil revenue that it depends on for more than 90% of it's income, we can easily imagine what kind of bargain could have been agreed.

Museveni would then most likely not want to withdraw just so that he gets his share of whatever it is they agreed. So he has to keep Ugandan soldiers in South Sudan.

Secondly, the parliament of Uganda recently offered it's blessing retro-actively to the deployment of UPDF troops in South Sudan.

Apparently their is a daily expenditure of approximately 15 billion shillings daily in the military operations of the Ugandan contingent in combat.

That was the declaration of military officials when they went to parliament to alert Ugandan MP's that a supplementary budget would now be required for the Ministry of Defense in light of the sudden extra expenditure.

The problem is that the warring South Sudanese parties then signed the cease-fire a couple of days after the army's request to parliament, and as we know, the cease-fire demanded the withdrawal of Ugandan forces.

Military officials who had started planning for the newly requested funds now saw the opportunity of utilizing the cash elude them.

At the moment, that cash line is now solely dependent on Museveni who also wants to keep his original deal with Salva Kiir so that he reaps whatever fruits he is awaiting from it.

But what is sure as steel is that we now have an entire Uganda gov't apparatus, including it's president and the army, forcing Uganda's military stay in South Sudan for reasons other than what has so far been agreed upon by the actual warring parties.

And this situation is obviously heading towards some diplomatic confrontation between Uganda on one side, and all the other international, continental and local partners for peace in the South Sudan conflict.
So the sooner we leave, the better.

But sadly, we could be letting lust for power and greed guide our actions when this is a matter of life and death for Southern Sudanese.

Uganda's actions might be confusing, but keen observers will argue that war also definitely means deals at home and in the country where the fighting is actually happening.

Posted by Hussein Amin at 1:19 AM 

Hussein Juruga Lumumba Amin

Kampala, Uganda